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Fri Sep 7, 2018, 07:39 AM

U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%

Source: New York Times

The Labor Department released its monthly hiring and unemployment figures for August on Friday morning, providing one of the better snapshots of the state of the American economy.
The Numbers

■ 201,000 jobs were added last month. Economists had expected a gain of about 190,000.

■ The unemployment rate remained at 3.9 percent.

■ Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4 percent after growing by 0.3 percent in July. The year-over-year gain is 2.9 percent.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/07/business/economy/jobs-report.html



More to come when my buddy checks in!

And here we go -

Payroll employment increases by 201,000 in August; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9%

Economic News Release USDL-18-1412

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, September 7, 2018

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- AUGUST 2018


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate remained at 3.9 percent in August, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.2 million, changed little. (See table A-1.)
....

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent, declined by 0.2 percentage point in August. (See table A-1.)
....

MORE: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142152585#post19

41 replies, 1509 views

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Reply U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9% (Original post)
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 OP
bucolic_frolic Sep 2018 #1
MichMary Sep 2018 #2
louis c Sep 2018 #4
MichMary Sep 2018 #9
bucolic_frolic Sep 2018 #5
MichMary Sep 2018 #8
bucolic_frolic Sep 2018 #13
MichMary Sep 2018 #26
GulfCoast66 Sep 2018 #34
LanternWaste Sep 2018 #38
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #11
bucolic_frolic Sep 2018 #18
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #20
bucolic_frolic Sep 2018 #23
Iliyah Sep 2018 #3
patricia92243 Sep 2018 #6
louis c Sep 2018 #7
Dawson Leery Sep 2018 #41
Perseus Sep 2018 #10
luvtheGWN Sep 2018 #25
Perseus Sep 2018 #27
Freethinker65 Sep 2018 #12
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #14
greatauntoftriplets Sep 2018 #15
Peakaboo Sep 2018 #16
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #17
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2018 #19
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2018 #21
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2018 #22
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2018 #24
Mad-in-Mo Sep 2018 #28
progree Sep 2018 #29
NewJeffCT Sep 2018 #30
progree Sep 2018 #31
heaven05 Sep 2018 #32
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2018 #33
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #35
mahatmakanejeeves Sep 2018 #36
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #37
elmac Sep 2018 #39
BumRushDaShow Sep 2018 #40

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 07:43 AM

1. Job is slavery with no benefits, no security

No wonder people give up and start their own. Win or lose, you own it. Working for the man is no longer security.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #1)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 07:47 AM

2. Well, actually

slavery was a whole lot worse than a job without benefits or security.

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Response to MichMary (Reply #2)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:04 AM

4. I believe that the reply-er was using hyperbole

Let's have a little poetic license here.

No shitting slavery is worse than a job without benefits.

Link to definition;
https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=fXeSW7i-JI685gLDoajoDA&q=definition+of+hyperbole&oq=definition+of+hyperbole&gs_l=psy-ab.1.0.0i131j0l7.2473.9854..11695...0.0..0.165.2066.19j4......0....1..gws-wiz.4mZKPGSIs-4

Hyperbole: An exaggeration not to be taken literally.
Example: He jumped so high he could have touched the moon.

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Response to louis c (Reply #4)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:18 AM

9. I understand hyperbole

and assumed at first that he was using it; however, he doubled down in his response to me, and defended his statement as fact, not hyperbole.

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Response to MichMary (Reply #2)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:05 AM

5. In what way?

They stole the fruits of your labor and left you with the minimum to survive. You had no real escape. They took all the profits and lived a lavish lifestyle. They were fed, we have to put food on our own table. OK, families were separated. Agree.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:17 AM

8. Really? You have to ask?

I was tempted to agree with the above poster that you were using hyperbole in your original comment, but the fact that you doubled down and are apparently defending your statement as fact does require a response.

I would say that being owned by another person, making you nothing more than personal property, is worse.

If you don't like your job, you are FREE to leave to find another. Slaves didn't have that freedom.

There are laws in place that make it illegal for your boss to beat you. Slave masters were not subject to any laws regarding the treatment of their "property."

Slaves were kidnapped from their homeland. Regardless of how much you hate your job, you probably weren't kidnapped to fill it.

Etc.

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Response to MichMary (Reply #8)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:29 AM

13. No, you're not beaten and you're free to leave BUT

you do have ulcers, colitis, peripheral nerve disease, requiring sedatives and risking long term damage to your health from dealing with your abusive, toxic, power-hungry narcissistic boss AND

you have difficulty finding another job due to all those problems and the boss will barely give you a recommendation AND

you cannot leave financially as you get the drip of an income stream AND

no you weren't kidnapped, you were lied to about the hours, overtime pay, job requirements, and workload which seems to increase as they streamline operations.

So those who have jobs are worse off than those who work for themselves. That's why people form home businesses, and publish books like "The Million-Dollar One Person Home Business". You can work as hard as you can for a company, you can work two jobs, but you are not there to get rich, you are there to perform for them and enrich the boss and his owners.

So yes, enjoy your worklife, may it be long and happy!

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #13)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:17 AM

26. Please

give it up already! There is No. Flippin'. Way. you are going to win this one. Employment is NOT as bad as slavery, in probably 1,000,000 ways.

And, if you think that people who are self-employed don't have any and all of those maladies you listed--well, try it some time and get back to us with the results. Self-employed people generally work long hours, often with little (or even no) pay or benefits. AND a statistical probability of losing everything.



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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #13)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 11:19 AM

34. Wow. You've had some shitty jobs

I’ve been at the same place 30 years. It has been good for the company and good for me. And I have enjoyed and still enjoy my work life.

Of course the place is unionized which is unusual in Florida. That alone helps raise the floor.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #13)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 12:51 PM

38. never watched an actual person jump the shark until now.

Good christ. You're being literal in its use.

How incredibly inaccurate. How woefully ignorant of history. How absolutely stunning in its absurdity.

Rant righteously at the rain and yell at it that's it's not rain, but rather math.

The two outcomes are the same, as is the rational thought behind either.


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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #5)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:23 AM

11. There were a few other pesky details



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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #11)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:46 AM

18. Yes this is true

Today those lacerations are mental and in your intestines
and the restraints are how you feel inside

But these are subjective juxtaposed relativisms that cannot be quantified

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #18)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:51 AM

20. I understand the metaphoric analysis on it

which is not unlike what people say about the Prison Industrial Complex.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #20)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:05 AM

23. Bingo

The trouble is the whole system of human organization runs off risk management and the profit incentive. If you remove those two, no one will produce anything, it's too risky and there is no incentive. Socializing the output - communism - lacks incentive, and worker-coops are fiercely opposed by the existing system. So the system produces as it does, and one has to make one's way in it. Cultural influences keep one, often generation after generation, in the same role relative to the system. Workers remain workers. Kiyosaki understands this with his 4 grid hierarchy - are you a worker, self-employed, business owner, or investor (capitalist)? Americans, even in personal finance, are not taught these roles very often. We just muddle onward.

Looks like a good read, I will check it out, thanks.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:02 AM

3. USA citizens - middle class sure is feeing the pinch with

costs of living rising. Wage stagnant or falling, with no benefits and GOPers doing their best take away affordable health care, so sure, these numbers are fantastic for the wealthy.

Ummm, so was Bush Administration numbers until finally it was revealed the total opposite. I'm one who do not believe a damn thing when it comes to this current fucked up administration.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:10 AM

6. Thanks to the Obama era. It normally takes two terms for the Republicans to mess up

the economy.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:15 AM

7. where the hell are the wage gains?

8 million jobs go unfilled, and wages do not exceed the inflation rate.

This, after a tax bill and spending bill that increased the deficit by 500 Billion a year to a cool Trillion.

Having as job is better than having none, but having a job is not the same as having a good job.

Jobs are easy to find. Good jobs, with health care benefits, living wages and retirement benefits, well, they're not so easy to find.

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Response to louis c (Reply #7)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 01:36 PM

41. Everything you said.

Once the market crashes, the deplorables will blame Obama for it.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:19 AM

10. THIS IS NOT trump's ECONOMY, THIS IS Obama's ECONOMY!

And my prediction is that the good economy is going to end in one year or two due to the tax cuts, the deregulation and other stupidity the republicans have been able to get away with.

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Response to Perseus (Reply #10)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:12 AM

25. You forgot the stock market.

What goes up, must come down. Bulls vs bears, and we've been enjoying the bull market for several years. Not looking forward to the inevitable bear market, but it's coming -- maybe sooner than later, and sooner might be this October

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Response to luvtheGWN (Reply #25)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:29 AM

27. Agree

I think a lot of people will have a very rude awakening.

The fantasy, that because the manchild "is a businessman" (and not a con too many), that somehow that is going to rub on them and suddenly the entire country will be packed with millionaires, that somehow his "business savvy" will rub on everyone as if by osmosis, and their bank accounts will then be full of money.

When democrats take back the presidency, the congress and the senate, the main priority must be educating the country, making sure that people learn to read, learn to think because when they do it will be the end of the republicans. Republicans need the ignorant, the easily awed because what they sell is extraordinary fantasy, just like the fake socialism that leads to communism has done in many countries. The rhetoric and fantasy that pseudo socialists give people sounds so good, the words they use are almost hypnotizing, the people who speak the words have outstanding speech abilities, it is just a thrill to hear them talk, but for the educated they know its crap and lies, for the uneducated it becomes music to their ears, and that is why ignorance is so dangerous, it is not a bliss it is a weapon for the evil people who have an agenda that only involves power and money.

Education must be priority one, paralleled with reversing all the bad changes the republicans have accomplished during these two years.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:28 AM

12. So government workers will get a bigger raise?

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Response to Freethinker65 (Reply #12)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:32 AM

14. They SHOULD at least get the same as what they gave the military

which I believe is 2.6%. Will see what happens - it's really up to Congress.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:33 AM

15. Thanks, Obama!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:38 AM

16. Jobs revised down 50,000 in June/July

 

3000 jobs lost in manufacturing last month due to tariffs.

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Response to Peakaboo (Reply #16)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:42 AM

17. Stats post is incoming but thanks for the heads-up.

I believe today is the day for a decision on whether there will be more tariffs against Chinese products (which of course would spur their retaliation).

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 08:49 AM

19. Don't pay the ransom; I've escaped.

Payroll employment increases by 201,000 in August; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.9%

Economic News Release USDL-18-1412

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, September 7, 2018

Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 * cpsinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: (202) 691-6555 * cesinfo@bls.gov * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * PressOffice@bls.gov


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- AUGUST 2018


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate remained at 3.9 percent in August, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.2 million, changed little. (See table A-1.)
....

Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.3 percent, declined by 0.2 percentage point in August. (See table A-1.)
....

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, in line with the average monthly gain of 196,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment increased in professional and business services, health care, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining. (See table B-1.)

Professional and business services added 53,000 jobs in August and 519,000 jobs over the year.

In August, health care employment rose by 33,000, with job gains in ambulatory health care services (+21,000) and hospitals (+8,000). Health care has added 301,000 jobs over the year.

Wholesale trade employment increased by 22,000 in August and by 99,000 over the year. Durable goods wholesalers added 14,000 jobs over the month and accounted for about two-thirds of the over-the-year job gain in wholesale trade.

Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 20,000 in August and by 173,000 over the past 12 months. Within the industry, couriers and messengers added 4,000 jobs in August.

Mining employment increased by 6,000 in August, after showing little change in July. Since a recent trough in October 2016, the industry has added 104,000 jobs, almost entirely in support activities for mining.
....

In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10 cents to $27.16. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 77 cents, or 2.9 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 7 cents to $22.73 in August. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +248,000 to +208,000, and the change for July was revised down from +157,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 50,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 185,000 per month over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for September is scheduled to be released on Friday, October 5, 2018, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

* * * * *

As Peekaboo has noted in reply #16:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +248,000 to +208,000, and the change for July was revised down from +157,000 to +147,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 50,000 less than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 185,000 per month over the last 3 months.

I'm sure Don Jr. will revise his tweets to make note of the decrease.

I didn't see anything about tariffs in this report. I did a "control-F," and I didn't get any hits for the word "tariff."

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:00 AM

21. Links to earlier reports

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Firms in August Added Fewest Workers in 10 Months, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 157,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2018:

U.S. Added 213,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2018:

U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2018:

U.S. adds 204,000 private-sector jobs in April, ADP report shows

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2018:

Payroll employment edges up by 103,000 in March; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2018:

Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase in Three Years

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 313,000 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 235,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 200,000 in January; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2018:

U.S. Private Sector Added 234,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 148,000 in December; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2017:

U.S. private sector adds 250,000 jobs in December, biggest rise since March

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 228,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2017:

I didn't get around to it.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 261,000 in October; unemployment rate edges down to 4.1%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2017:

ADP says 235,000 private-sector jobs added in October

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2017:

Unemployment rate falls to 4.2% in September; payroll employment changes little (-33,000)

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2017:

Companies Add Fewest U.S. Workers in Nearly a Year, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 156,000 in August; unemployment rate changes little (4.4%)

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2017:

Private-sector job growth surges in August with a little Amazon assist, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 209,000 in July; unemployment rate changes little at 4.3%

ADP[sup]®[/sup] (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2017:

U.S. private sector adds 178,000 jobs in July: ADP

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:01 AM

22. Additional links:

Sometimes you can read articles in The Wall Street Journal. without a subscription, and sometimes you can't. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

U.S. Adds 201,000 Jobs in August

Last Updated Sep 7, 2018 at 10:00 am ET

Labor Department data showed the U.S. added 201,000 jobs in August, topping forecasts of 192,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% Average hourly earnings were up 2.9% from a year earlier.

* * * * *

People often wonder how in the world the BLS comes up with all this information. This article from January 2018 will help explain things:

Monthly Labor Review

JANUARY 2018

The Current Population Survey—tracking unemployment in the United States for over 75 years

For more than three-quarters of a century, the Current Population Survey has been a vital tool for providing information on U.S. unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article highlights major developments in the survey’s history.

The Current Population Survey (CPS) has been conducted for more than three-quarters of a century.1 From the outset, the main purpose of the survey has been to gather information on the employment status of the U.S. population, with an emphasis on the measurement of unemployment. CPS data have been used by policymakers and others to gauge both the degree of labor market weakness during recessions and the strength of the job market in economic expansions. More than 900 monthly reports on national employment and unemployment have been issued since the survey began in March 1940.

The survey also has been used to provide a wealth of information on a wide range of other subjects—some related to the labor market and some unrelated—through supplemental questions to the basic survey instrument. Over the years, supplements to the CPS have been used to collect data on topics ranging from income and worker displacement to tobacco use and participation in the arts.

The main objective of the CPS, however, has always been to measure unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article summarizes some of the major developments in achieving this goal over the past three-quarters of a century.
....

* * * * *

Other useful links:

From the BLS Twitter account:

See our interactive graphics on today’s #JobsReport http://go.usa.gov/cn5B4 #BLSdata #DataViz



More charts and analysis on the August nonfarm payroll employment numbers http://go.usa.gov/4UqY #JobsReport #BLSdata



* * * * *

We still don't have a BLS commissioner. The acting commissioner has been in that position for, gee, at least 16 months. Here's his statement, which is the fast and dirty thing that the TV news anchors can recite:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation

Statement of

William J. Wiatrowski
Acting Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Friday, September 7, 2018

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 201,000 in August, and the unemployment rate held at 3.9 percent. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, and mining.

Incorporating revisions for June and July, which decreased nonfarm payroll employment by 50,000, monthly job gains have averaged 185,000 over the past 3 months.
....

* * * * *

It used to be that you could get free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal. by going in through TWSJ.'s Twitter account or the Twitter accounts of the authors:

How to get around the paywall to read articles in The Wall Street Journal.:

For free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal., trying going in through the authors' Twitter feeds:

This trick doesn't seem to work anymore, but you might be able to get in if they've slipped up. Here are those accounts:

* * * * *

The Wall Street Journal.: @WSJ
https://twitter.com/wsj

Wall Street Journal

Breaking news and features from the WSJ.

* * * * *

Ben Leubsdorf: @BenLeubsdorf
https://twitter.com/BenLeubsdorf

I cover the economy at @WSJ. @ConMonitorNews, @AP, @the_herald alum. DC native. Hyperactive news omnivore. Also I like burritos. ben.leubsdorf@wsj.com

* * * * *

Josh Zumbrun: ‎@JoshZumbrun
https://twitter.com/JoshZumbrun

National economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. Covering the world's usual state of greed and disorder, confusion and apathy. josh.zumbrun@wsj.com

* * * * *

Nick Timiraos: @NickTimiraos
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos

National economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal

Please look at the tweets, as Nick Timiraos likes to slice and dice the data every which way. Also, link to the "11 charts " article from his Twitter feed to get past TWSJ.'s paywall.

* * * * *

Jeffrey Sparshott: @jeffsparshott
https://twitter.com/jeffsparshott

Jeffrey.Sparshott@wsj.com

* * * * *

Paul Vigna: @paulvigna
https://twitter.com/paulvigna
Markets, bitcoin, and the zombie apocalypse.

* * * * *

Eric Morath: @EricMorath
https://twitter.com/EricMorath

Eric.Morath@wsj.com
I'm a Wall Street Journal economy reporter, dad, husband and Spartan for life. eric.morath@wsj.com

Washington DC

blogs.wsj.com/economics/

* * * * *

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:08 AM

24. Analysis and charts at The Wall Street Journal.

Last edited Fri Sep 7, 2018, 11:10 AM - Edit history (2)

They usually require a subscription. Maybe you can see them.

The August Jobs Report in 8 Charts

By Jeffrey Sparshott

https://twitter.com/jeffsparshott
Jeffrey.Sparshott@wsj.com

Sep 7, 2018 9:52 am ET

U.S. employers added 201,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9% in August. Over the past year, the number of jobs increased by 1.6%. The figure has been the same for three straight months. Hourly wages rose 2.9% from a year earlier, the fastest pace since mid-2009. Weekly wages rose 3.2%. Inflation is […]

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August Jobs Report: The Numbers

10:33 AM EST SEP 7, 2018 By Sarah Chaney

https://twitter.com/sechaney
sarah.chaney@wsj.com

Here are some key figures from Friday’s Labor Department report.

Let's check out her Twitter account:

It's econ nerds' favorite time of the month: Jobs Friday Eve. Here are five things to watch in tomorrow's employment report:



REAL TIME ECONOMICS EMPLOYMENT

Five Things to Watch in the August Jobs Report

By Sarah Chaney

https://twitter.com/sechaney
sarah.chaney@wsj.com

Sep 6, 2018 10:41 am ET

The Labor Department releases its monthly snapshot of the nation’s labor market Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect it to show employers created 192,000 jobs in August and that the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 3.9% a month earlier.

Here are five things to look for in the report.

{snip}

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:39 AM

28. So why did we have 180 applicants

recently for a clerical position paying $12.00 an hour? And yet my conservative co-workers tell me that "because of what Trump did for jobs" there are more jobs than there are applicants and employers can't fill positions. Also that the people that are hired don't want to work, really. I'm confused.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:40 AM

29. So we have 201,000 - 50,000 equals 151,000 more jobs than the previous jobs report

+201,000 in August but a combined 50,000 downward revision in June and July. So not a great jobs report.

Interesting factoids from the Household Survey (that gives us the unemployment rate and labor force participation rate):

Over the past month (unless otherwise stated):
## Labor force: -469,000
## Employed: -423,000
## Unemployed: -46,000
## NILF (Not in Labor Force): +692,000 to 96,290,000 and +1,531,000 over past 12 months,

(During the campaign, Benedict Donald told us that there were "94 million jobless Americans". Well now, using the same metric, there are "96 million jobless Americans" This count includes the voluntarily retired, full time students age 16 and over, homemakers, elderly including centenarians, but he didn't say that during the campaign. )

More on above, including the "42% unemployment rate" -- https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210153676

## NILF,WJ (Not in Labor Force, says wants a job): +226,000 to 5,389,000 (down 420,000 past 12 months)

## Cautionary Note: the Household Survey statistics are extremely very volatile from month to month.

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Response to progree (Reply #29)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 09:47 AM

30. interesting

labor force down 469,000? So, workers are leaving the labor force

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Response to NewJeffCT (Reply #30)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 10:01 AM

31. Statistical noise mostly

Here are the monthly changes in the labor force. It wildly zigs and zags from month to month.

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

In thousands:
2016: 344 424 442 -334 -407 464 231 307 220 -34 -156 192
2017: -18 279 238 -54 -452 485 253 131 484 -711 162 64
2018: 518 806 -158 -236 12 601 105 -469

January and February of each year: Data affected by changes in population controls.

The Number of Employed, also from the Household Survey, is similarly volatile:

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

More on this topic: https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141934356 post 9 and 20 thru 23

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 10:53 AM

32. ooohhhh

 

Last edited Sat Sep 8, 2018, 10:00 AM - Edit history (1)

all these jobs at modern slave wage. With taxes paid to the con and grifter family in D.C. and what every state takes, a person getting one of these jobs after, ideally, 30 hours max a week in work end up with 145 a week. Times 4, 580.00 a month x12 7000.00 a year. This pushing of job numbers is pushing the current administration and exceedingly misleading. I wish people would tell it like it is, not some idealized BULLSHIT coming out of the swamp that trump has made. Just stop it. People getting one of these jobs are probably working closer to 80 hrs a week, at two low paying jobs, which will be 14000 a year, just to pay mortgage/rent, lights, food, gasoline and that's just for a single person. I pay 11,000 in rent a year. Anyone can do the rest of the math. Add the real prices for these necessities and more hiding the reality of surviving economically in amerika as has always been the case with these jobs.

Sad to see this BS on a site like this without proper 'real world' consequence explained of our economy on people who have to work these jobs, the permanent underclass, making billionaires huge profits with them barely surviving in this hyperinflated economic environment these days.

The high tech and professional ranks can accept just so many. They are college educated. The rest are a permanent underclass forever working at slave wage if not able to get into college because of the realities of living in a racist, prejudiced, sexist and hateful society.

I am not fooled by these BULLSHIT numbers and optimism of an OP plant such as this..

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 11:04 AM

33. The mind-numbing rant, based on a version posted on the first Friday in September 2016:

I used to run this every month in the commentary in the zeroeth post. It explains just about every aspect of the monthly report.

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.


[center]Introduction[/center]

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome our good friends from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so I am absolutely delighted to have you participate in this thread. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

Full disclosure: I do not work for BLS, nor am I friends with anyone over there. I'm just someone who appreciates the work they do. My sole connection with the agency is that I've been in the building to pick up some publications.

Thank you for being a part of this thread.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation

It is easy to find one paragraph, or one sentence, or one datum in this report that will support the most outlandish of conclusions, from "the sky is falling" to "we'll have blue skies, nothing but blue skies, from now on." Easy, but disingenuous.

Every month, you can find something in the report that will cause you concern. Take the information in context. Consider not just this month’s data, but the trend.

Please take the time to look at progree's not-to-be-missed thread containing his thoughtful analysis, updated monthly. Here is the latest version:

Economic Statistics with links to official sources, data rev 12/2/16, notes added 10/28/17

Thank you so much for that, progree.

Let's begin with a couple of questions:


[center]What Is the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
Why Does It Release All These Numbers Every Month?
[/center]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics and serves as a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System. The BLS is a governmental statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor representatives. The BLS also serves as a statistical resource to the Department of Labor, and conducts research into how much families need to earn to be able to enjoy a decent standard of living.

The BLS data must satisfy a number of criteria, including relevance to current social and economic issues, timeliness in reflecting today’s rapidly changing economic conditions, accuracy and consistently high statistical quality, and impartiality in both subject matter and presentation. To avoid the appearance of partiality, the dates of major data releases are scheduled more than a year in advance, in coordination with the Office of Management and Budget.

[font color="red"]New material, added August 29, 2016:[/font] Print title, Washington Post, Saturday, March 10, 2012, front page, above the fold: "Watching the clock: Monthly data release is an economic, political obsession timed to the nanosecond"

‘Jobs Day’: Monthly release of employment data an economic, political obsession

By Eli Saslow
http://twitter.com/elisaslow

March 9, 2012

The release of employment numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has long been a ritual in Washington, but lately it has turned into an obsession during an election year defined by economic instability. Once each month, a nondescript government agency compiles and releases 24 tables of economic data that have come to define the 2012 election and so much else. Republican presidential candidates turn the numbers into speeches. The president’s staff monitors how they affect his approval rating. The Federal Reserve reevaluates interest rates. Investors prepare for the stock market to rise or fall, sometimes swinging in value by $150 billion in the minutes after the report is released.
....

The raw data had arrived at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), like always, on Wednesday the week before the report’s release: millions of characters representing survey information from 55,000 households; and then, a few days later, monthly payroll data from 486,000 businesses. Kosanovich’s boss posted a two-page schedule on the office wall, detailing the tasks ahead for a team of more than 20 economists. They would be required to make a series of six deadlines. Their work would undergo 15 fact checks and then 15 clearance reviews. They would sit together in a windowless conference room and read aloud from their eventual creation, a three-page news release and 24 data tables, debating commas and verbs for hours on end.

They would do it all with absolute discretion during an eight-day security lockdown, signing confidentiality agreements each morning, encrypting their computers and locking data into a safe every time they walked 10 yards away to use a bathroom. “Is your workstation secure?” asked a sign in the hallway. They all remembered the last security miscue, in November 2008 — the accidental transmission of some data to one wire service a full 25 seconds before the report’s scheduled release, an incident that had necessitated a series of internal investigations and revisions.

“We always tape paper over the windows of the conference room or draw the shades,” Kosanovich said about her typical routine during a lockdown. She made a habit of refraining from answering phone calls or e-mails from unknown numbers and never discussing data outside her office. For eight days, nobody visited her team’s floor at BLS without a security clearance. The custodial staff did not empty their trash until the report was released.
....


[center]Household Survey vs. Establishment Survey[/center]

From the February 10, 2011, DOL Newsletter:

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The household survey, or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The establishment survey, or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[font color="red"]New material, added March 9, 2018:[/font]

People often wonder how in the world the BLS comes up with all this information. This article from two months ago will help explain things:

Monthly Labor Review

JANUARY 2018

The Current Population Survey—tracking unemployment in the United States for over 75 years

For more than three-quarters of a century, the Current Population Survey has been a vital tool for providing information on U.S. unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article highlights major developments in the survey’s history.

The Current Population Survey (CPS) has been conducted for more than three-quarters of a century.1 From the outset, the main purpose of the survey has been to gather information on the employment status of the U.S. population, with an emphasis on the measurement of unemployment. CPS data have been used by policymakers and others to gauge both the degree of labor market weakness during recessions and the strength of the job market in economic expansions. More than 900 monthly reports on national employment and unemployment have been issued since the survey began in March 1940.

The survey also has been used to provide a wealth of information on a wide range of other subjects—some related to the labor market and some unrelated—through supplemental questions to the basic survey instrument. Over the years, supplements to the CPS have been used to collect data on topics ranging from income and worker displacement to tobacco use and participation in the arts.

The main objective of the CPS, however, has always been to measure unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article summarizes some of the major developments in achieving this goal over the past three-quarters of a century.
....


[center]Complaint Department[/center]

I post this information on a nonpartisan basis. I am not here to make elected officials of any party or persuasion look good. I am certain that the people who compile these data are of the same outlook. They are civil servants. They do not work for a party; they work for you, the American people.

My only contribution is to cut and paste a few paragraphs from the BLS and then, in the commentary, link to some sources that I feel are trustworthy. I hope people come away with a better understanding of the data after reading this thread. Once again, I do not work for BLS, but I will nonetheless try to assist if I can.

If you feel the Bureau of Labor Statistics is handing out bunk, start here:

Point of Contact for Complaints Concerning Information Quality

Affected persons who believe that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has disseminated information that does not meet its guidelines or those of the Department of Labor or Office of Management and Budget, and who wish to file a formal complaint may send their complaint by mail, e-mail, or fax to:

Division of Management Systems
Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Department of Labor
2 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E., Room 4080
Washington, D.C., 20212-0001
E-mail: dataqa@bls.gov
Fax: (202) 691-5111

Complainants should:

Identify themselves and indicate where and how they can be reached;
Identify, as specifically as possible, the information in question;
Indicate how they are affected by the information about which they are complaining;
Carefully describe the nature of the complaint, including an explanation of why they believe the information does not comply with OMB, Departmental, or agency-specific guidelines; and
Describe the change requested and the reason why the agency should make the change.

Failure to include this information may result in a complainant not receiving a response to the complaint or greatly reducing the usefulness or timeliness of any response. Complainants should be aware that they bear the burden of establishing that they are affected persons and showing the need and justification for the correction they are seeking, including why the information being complained about does not comply with applicable guidelines.


[center]How Do You Define Unemployment?
The Large Print Giveth, and the Fine Print Taketh Away.
[/center]

Long ago, a DUer pointed out that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here is that link:

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Also, hat tip, Recursion: How the Government Measures Unemployment

[font color="red"]New material, added August 8, 2016:[/font]

This appeared at the top of page A2 in the Wednesday, July 27, 2016, print edition of The Wall Street Journal. as "Jobless Picture is Open to Interpretation."

Jobless Picture is Open to Interpretation

Gauges used to measure unemployment vary in how they define who is out of work {print: "Political campaigns clash over different ways of measuring unemployment"}



By Josh Zumbrun
josh.zumbrun@wsj.com
@JoshZumbrun

July 26, 2016 7:56 p.m. ET

Because political campaigns can rise and fall on the health of the economy, spats often flare over the gauges used to measure growth and unemployment.

The latest dust-up, raised by the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, focuses on the monthly employment numbers. A long streak of hiring has nudged the jobless rate down to 4.9%. ... Donald Trump Jr., the nominee’s son, recently criticized the official statistics as “artificial numbers…massaged to make the existing economy look good.”

The nominee himself has said unemployment is far higher than the Labor Department’s headline 4.9% rate would suggest, part of his message that the economy is in a dire state. After he won the New Hampshire primary in February, Mr. Trump called the official jobless figures “phony” and said the real number could be as high as 42%.

This isn’t the first time people have cast aspersions on the jobs numbers in an election year, but the Trump claim is also part of a larger discussion over how best to assess the health of the labor market.

The following link to Barron's might not work for everyone. See progree's tips.[/font] From the July 20, 2015, issue of Barron's:

Refresher Course: Inside the Jobless Numbers

Are we undercounting the unemployment numbers—or overcounting? How the BLS gathers and calculates the numbers, and why it matters.

By Gene Epstein
July 18, 2015

The unemployment rate has never been the object of as much attention from the markets and the media as it is now, sparked by the keen interest taken in its monthly fluctuations by policy makers at the Federal Reserve.

Despite the heightened focus, there are a lot of misunderstandings and misconceptions about how the rate is calculated. Some people assume the Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles the rate from the unemployment-insurance rolls. On that basis, they fault the BLS for undercounting the unemployed. But that’s just one myth among many about this cornerstone measure of economic pain and labor-market slack.

To estimate the unemployment rate, the BLS actually relies on the monthly Current Population Survey conducted for it by the Census Bureau. While the data are highly imperfect in their own way, we think the Federal Reserve is right to view the official unemployment rate as the best available information, while also keeping its eye on ancillary measures of “labor underutilization.”

In fact, a close look at BLS methods suggests that, if anything, the official unemployment rate may be overcounting rather than undercounting the unemployed.


[font color="red"]New material:[/font] In August 2015, DUers whatthehey and progree got into a 1995 report from economists John E. Bregger and Steven E. Haugen. The .pdf is unfortunately an image and thus challenging as a source of quotes. Trying to find it in a format that does make for easy copying, I was led to this:

Alternative Unemployment Rates: Their Meaning and Their Measure March 12, 2014


[center]Why Won't You Talk About the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)?[/center]

Every month in certain circles, someone will cite the labor force participation rate as a cause for concern. Let's look at that right now.

[font color="red"]New material, added September 30, 2016:[/font]

September 2016

Labor force participation: what has happened since the peak?

The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older that is working or actively looking for work. It is an important labor market measure because it represents the relative amount of labor resources available for the production of goods and services. After rising for more than three decades, the overall labor force participation rate peaked in early 2000 and subsequently trended down. In recent years, the movement of the baby-boom population into age groups that generally exhibit low labor force participation has contributed to the decline in the overall participation rate. From 2000 to 2015, most of the major demographic groups saw a decrease in labor force participation. Teenagers experienced the largest drop in participation, which coincided with a rise in their school enrollment rate. Young adults 20 to 24 years also showed a decline in labor force participation, but the decrease was not as steep as that for teenagers. The labor force participation rate of women 25 to 54 years also fell, with the decrease more pronounced for women who did not attend college. The labor force participation rate of men 25 to 54 years continued its long-term decline. As in the past, the decrease in participation among men with less education was greater than that of men with more education. However, labor force participation rates of men and women 55 years and older rose from 2000 to 2009 and subsequently leveled off.

[font color="red"]New material, added July 31, 2016:[/font]

Title in the print edition of the Washington Post, page A17, Wednesday, July 27, 2016: "The unemployment-rate 'conspiracy' that isn't"

A popular conspiracy theory is spreading in the Trump family. It’s totally false.

By Matt O'Brien July 26
matthew.obrien@washpost.com
@ObsoleteDogma

The unemployment rate is not a conspiracy. It is not manipulated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And anyone who suggests otherwise is either uninformed, or trying to misinform others.

Which is to say that you shouldn't listen to Donald Trump & Co. For a year now, the alleged billionaire has insisted that the "real" unemployment rate is something like 42 percent instead of the 4.9 percent it actually is. He hasn't said how he's gotten this — maybe it's from the same "Link to tweet
" target="_blank">extremely credible source" who told him President Obama's birth certificate was fake? — but the simplest explanation is that he's just ballparking how many adults don't work. That's 40.4 percent right now. The problem with using that number, though, is that it counts college students and stay-at-home parents and retirees as being equally "unemployed" as people who are actively looking for work but can't find any. So it doesn't tell us too much, at least not on its own, unless you think it's a problem that we have more 70-year-olds than we used to.

Or unless conspiracy theories are one of your favorite accessories, as seems to be the case with the father, and now the son, Donald Trump Jr. On Sunday, he told CNN's Jake Tapper that the official unemployment numbers are "artificial" ones that are "massaged to make the existing economy look good" and "this administration look good."
....



Source: BLS

....
The boring truth is that the economy is in a lot better shape than it was when Obama took office, but that it could be in better shape still. The recovery, in other words, still has a ways to go. But that's a lot different from saying that we have 40 percent unemployment and that the government is trying to cover it up. That just suggests you don't understand — or don't want to accurately describe — how stats work and you don't know how to look up the ones you think the BLS is hiding. ... It's not what you'd expect from a major party presidential candidate.

[font color="red"]New material, added June 27, 2016:[/font]

Wonkblog

[link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/20/why-americas-men-arent-working/|
Why America’s men aren’t working]

By Ylan Q. Mui June 20

The national unemployment rate has fallen by more than half since the nation emerged from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. It peaked at 10 percent in 2010 and stood at just 4.7 percent last month.

That’s mostly good news: Private employers have added more than 14 million jobs. About 2 million people have been out of a job for six months or longer, far too many but only about a quarter of the number of long-term unemployed people seven years ago. By almost every measure, the labor market has made incredible progress.

But there’s one statistic that has been vexing economists. The size of the nation’s workforce -- known as the labor force participation rate -- continues to fall. Since the start of the downturn, the percentage of that population that has a job or is looking for one has dropped more than 3 percentage points, to 62.6 percent, a level not seen since the 1970s.

{America’s jobs market has had a great 2016. Will it last?}

The problem is particularly pronounced among men between the ages of 25 and 54, traditionally considered the prime working years. Their participation rate has been declining for decades, but the drop-off accelerated during the recession. The high mark was 98 percent in 1954, and it now stands at 88 percent. A new analysis from the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, slated for release Monday, found that the United States now has the third-lowest participation rate for “prime-age men” among the world’s developed countries.
....



....
People in prison are not counted as part of the population for the purposes of labor market statistics. At first blush, that would actually boost the participation rate: A smaller population means the share in the workforce is larger. But in reality, there are immense and well-documented barriers to the job market for workers once they leave prison. And the gloomy prospects of the formerly incarcerated outweigh the statistical benefit of having a large prison population.



....
Ylan Q. Mui is a financial reporter at The Washington Post covering the Federal Reserve and the economy. Follow @ylanmui

[font color="red"]New material, added January 2016:[/font] People who are not in the labor force: why aren't they working?

Beyond the Numbers

December 2015 | Vol. 4 / No. 15

EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT

People who are not in the labor force: why aren't they working?

By Steven F. Hipple

People who are neither working nor looking for work are counted as “not in the labor force,” according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since 2000, the percentage of people in this group has increased. Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and its Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) provide some insight into why people are not in the labor force. The ASEC is conducted in the months of February through April and includes questions about work and other activities in the previous calendar year. For example, data collected in 2015 are for the 2014 calendar year, and data collected in 2005 are for the 2004 calendar year.1 In the ASEC, people who did not work at all in the previous year are asked to give the main reason they did not work. Interviewers categorize survey participants’ verbatim responses into the following categories: ill health or disabled; retired;2 home responsibilities; going to school; could not find work;3 and other reasons.

This Beyond the Numbers article examines data on those who were not in the labor force during 2004 and 2014 and the reasons they gave for not working. The data are limited to people who neither worked nor looked for work during the previous year.

This July 2014 report from the Council of Economic Advisers addresses the LFPR:

THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE SINCE 2007: CAUSES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

(Hat tip, Adrahil: Look deeper.)

[font color="red"]New material:[/font] Here's a Power Point (or equivalent) presentation given by Jason Furman, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, before the National Press Club on August 6, 2015. If you go to the next-to-the-last slide, you'll see that the long-term projected trend is down:

"Trends in Labor Force Participation", 8/6/15

(Hat tip, progree: Over the past month, over the past year, and since February 2010)

[font color="red"]New material:[/font] Paul Vigna had a comment about the LFPR in the December 4, 2015, MoneyBeat column about the November figures:

8:55 am

Breaking down the participation rate
by Paul Vigna

Here’s what we mean when we talk about the participation rate and employment-population ratio.

There are 251.7 million people in the “civilian noninstitutional population,” according to the BLS (this is all contained in this chart). This is the number of people over age 16 who are not in jail or health-care facilities or the military.

Of that group, 157.3 million comprise the civilian labor force. The ratio of the second group to the first is 62.5%. This is the labor force participation rate, the number of people who could be in the labor force – either working or looking for a job – who are in the labor force.

There are 149.3 million people working. The ratio of that group to the overall civilian population is 59.3%. This the employment-population ratio, the number of people who could be working who actually are working.

Why do these number matter? Well, if you just looked at the raw data, you’d see the numbers rising, more or less, month after month. That’s not because the economy’s so rip-roaring, but because the number of people in the nation keeps rising. So you need the ratios to get a sense of how strong the labor force really is.

The labor-force participation rate remains near multi-decade lows, and whether that’s due to demographics, as in people retiring, or weak job opportunities, or whatever, it points to one sort of unavoidable problem: the economy cannot grow at its full potential if you simply don’t have enough people contributing.

Oh, and for the record, there are 94.4 million people not in the labor force.

[font color="red"]New material, added December 2015:[/font]

3:12 pm ET
Dec 8, 2015
economics

As America’s Workforce Ages, Here’s Where the Jobs Will Be

By Jeffrey Sparshott

Jeffrey.Sparshott@wsj.com
@jeffsparshott

The U.S. labor force is expected to expand only slowly over the coming decade as the country ages and more Americans give up on holding a job, a potential drag on broader economic growth.

The economy is expected to generate 9.8 million new jobs, a 6.5% increase, from 2014 to 2024, the Labor Department said in new projections released Tuesday. While steady, that is a historically slow pace. By comparison, 10-year job creation averaged almost 14% during the 2001-07 expansion and close to 17% during the 1990s.

The slowdown highlights declining participation as baby boomers retire and younger Americans opt out of the workforce. Those two trends are expected to continue to push the labor-force participation rate lower, to 60.9% in 2024 from 62.9% in 2014, Labor estimates. If realized, that would be the lowest level since 1973, when Richard Nixon was president.

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen at a congressional hearing last week held out hope the participation rate would hold near current levels as people came off the sidelines and into jobs.


[center]Nattering Nabobs of Negativism[/center]

[font color="red"]New material, added February 26, 2016:[/font] More High-Wage Employment Doesn't Mean the Job Market's Out of the Woods

That's the print edition title.

Wonkblog

The recovery is generating more high-wage jobs — but does that matter?

The U.S. is still digging out of a big hole, and isn't creating new opportunities for those whose jobs disappeared.

By Lydia DePillis February 24

@lydiadepillis

A couple of weeks ago, some economists from Goldman Sachs came out with a rosy pronouncement: "Millions of new jobs and plenty of good ones," read the headline on a note to investors. High-wage employment appeared to pick up from 2013 to the present, a change from the early years of the economic recovery, which generated a disproportionate number of low-wage jobs.



And you don’t have to just take it from an investment bank. The Department of Labor has run its own numbers, and saw similar growth back in October, rendered in absolute numbers rather than growth rates (which Labor’s Chief Economist Heidi Shierholz says held through the end of 2015 in an analysis the department completed last week).

The green bars in the graph below show changes in actual employment, and the orange line shows what it would have been if the growth had been evenly distributed. Shierholz says the loss of low-wage jobs is likely a result of workers in those categories having their wages bumped up above $10 an hour, as the huge growth in low-wage sectors from 2009-2013 led to competition for people in restaurants and retail, or finding better jobs.



That renewed growth in high-wage jobs, which started to show up in 2014, is typical of recoveries from recessions: Low-wage retail and restaurant jobs come back first, as consumers start to buy small-ticket items and go out to eat again. Later on, the profitability trickles up, leading firms to make more expensive hires. Overall, the trend could be responsible for the small uptick in wages that's become evident in recent months, as well.

[font color="red"]Revised material:[/font] Here’s a grim thought:

Fed economists: America’s missing workers are not coming back

Wonkblog

By Max Ehrenfreund September 12 {2014}

A paper by Federal Reserve staff that will be discussed at the Brookings Institution on Friday {September 12, 2014} possibly hints at the central bank's thinking on interest rates and employment in advance of a consequential Fed meeting next week. The findings support [links:http://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-rate-hike-debate-heating-up-1408557628|hawks] on the Federal Open Market Committee, who feel that the Fed needs to prepare to raise rates sooner than expected, although the results are still being debated and might not persuade the committee's more dovish members.

The paper discusses the number of people who consider themselves part of the workforce -- including both people who have a job and those who are looking for work. It is a measure of the total manpower available in the U.S. economy. This number, the labor force participation rate, has been decreasing steadily since 2000. Americans who can't find work have been leaving the workforce, as have more and more retirees as the population ages.

Let’s follow that with another grim thought:

Why wage growth disparity tells the story of America's half-formed economic recovery

By Chico Harlan November 21, 2014

chico.harlan@washpost.com
@chicoharlan

....
With unemployment down to 5.8 percent, the country’s half-formed recovery is often described with a convenient shorthand: We have jobs but little wage growth. But stagnancy is just an average, and for many Americans, the years since the financial crisis have pushed them farther from the line, according to a detailed analysis of government labor statistics by The Washington Post.
....

Among the winners in this climate: Older workers, women and those with finance and technology jobs. ... Among the losers: Part-timers, the young, men, and those in the health, retail and food industries.
....

Chico Harlan covers personal economics as part of The Post's financial team.

Dissenters, take note:

A New Reason to Question the Official Unemployment Rate

David Leonhardt
AUG. 26, 2014

The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report has been the subject of some wacky conspiracy theories. None was wackier than the suggestion from Jack Welch, the former General Electric chief executive, that government statisticians were exaggerating job growth during President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. Both Republican and Democratic economists dismissed those charges as silly.

But to call the people who compile the jobs report honest, nonpartisan civil servants is not to say that the jobs report is perfect. The report tries to estimate employment in a big country – and to do so quickly, to give policy makers, business executives and everyone else a sense of how the economy is performing. It’s a tough task.

And it has become tougher, because Americans are less willing to respond to surveys than they used to be.

A new academic paper suggests that the unemployment rate appears to have become less accurate over the last two decades, in part because of this rise in nonresponse. In particular, there seems to have been an increase in the number of people who once would have qualified as officially unemployed and today are considered out of the labor force, neither working nor looking for work.

[font color="red"]New material, added January 2016:[/font] From July 2013:

Mort Zuckerman: A Jobless Recovery Is a Phony Recovery

Commentary

Mort Zuckerman: A Jobless Recovery Is a Phony Recovery

More people have left the workforce than got a new job during the recovery—by a factor of nearly three.

By Mortimer Zuckerman
July 15, 2013 7:09 p.m. ET

In recent months, Americans have heard reports out of Washington and in the media that the economy is looking up—that recovery from the Great Recession is gathering steam. If only it were true. The longest and worst recession since the end of World War II has been marked by the weakest recovery from any U.S. recession in that same period.

The jobless nature of the recovery is particularly unsettling. In June, the government's Household Survey reported that since the start of the year, the number of people with jobs increased by 753,000—but there are jobs and then there are "jobs." No fewer than 557,000 of these positions were only part-time. The survey also reported that in June full-time jobs declined by 240,000, while part-time jobs soared by 360,000 and have now reached an all-time high of 28,059,000—three million more part-time positions than when the recession began at the end of 2007.

That's just for starters. The survey includes part-time workers who want full-time work but can't get it, as well as those who want to work but have stopped looking. That puts the real unemployment rate for June at 14.3%, up from 13.8% in May.

The 7.6% unemployment figure so common in headlines these days is utterly misleading. An estimated 22 million Americans are unemployed or underemployed; they are virtually invisible and mostly excluded from unemployment calculations that garner headlines.
....

Mr. Zuckerman is chairman and editor in chief of U.S. News & World Report.


[center]On the Road Again[/center]

The DOL Newsletter - October 6, 2011

DOL Data: There's an App for That
Have an iPhone, iPod Touch or Android phone? Now you can access the latest labor data and news from the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration in the palm of your hand. The latest free mobile app displays real-time updates to the unemployment rate, Unemployment Insurance initial claims, the Consumer Price Index, payroll employment, average hourly earnings, the Producer Price Index, the Employment Cost Index, productivity, the U.S. Import Price Index and the U.S. Export Price Index in real time, as they are published each week, month or quarter. News releases providing context for the data can also be accessed through the app and viewed within a mobile browser or as PDF documents.

US Labor Department launches economic and employment statistics app

Smartphone users gain mobile access to latest labor data and news

WASHINGTON — The most up-to-date employment data and economic news releases from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics and its Employment and Training Administration now can be viewed using a new mobile application.
....

The new app is currently available for the iPhone and iPod Touch as well as Android phones. The Labor Department is working to develop versions for BlackBerry and iPad devices. Visit https://m.dol.gov/apps/ to download this and other mobile apps.

Download the Data, Other Mobile Apps


[center]A Few More Things[/center]

[font color="red"]New material, added July 8, 2017:[/font]

The power of the president over the economy is limited

By Ezra Klein January 13, 2012

....
But it would be even better if voters had a consistent benchmark for judging a president’s performance. The question — and it’s a tough one — is how to separate the very real influence the president has on the economy from the myriad other factors that weigh on whether consumers spend and businesses hire. So I put the issue to an exclusive club of economists who have an unusually fine-grained understanding of what the president can and can’t do: the former chairs of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers. And I asked each the same question: How much of national job creation during a presidency can we properly attribute to the president?

“Very little,” wrote Harvard’s Martin Feldstein in an e-mail. Feldstein led the CEA under Reagan, and he didn’t see much role for the president in normal economic times. “The key is growth of population and labor force participation. Policy — primarily monetary policy — affects cyclical conditions and therefore the unemployment rate. Fiscal policy is usually irrelevant but with interest rates at the current level there has been a role for fiscal policy.”

Laura D’Andrea Tyson, a Berkeley economist who served under President Clinton, emphasized the need to consider timing in our evaluations. “There are significant lags between the time a President proposes a policy, the time it is enacted by Congress and the time necessary for it to take effect,” she wrote to me. “These lags should be taken into account in measuring the economy’s job performance under a President. The first year probably should not count at all in terms of assessing the effects of a new Administration’s policies.”

Greg Mankiw, a Harvard economist who served as CEA chair under George W. Bush, directed me to a blog post he had written on the subject. “Randomness is a fact of economic life,” Mankiw wrote, “and it would be a mistake to judge a president by the economic outcome during his administration. It is better to look at the decisions the president made, and to acknowledge that the outcome is a function of those decisions and many other factors not under his control. As an economist, I have views about what best practices are for economic policy, and I judge presidents by how closely they adhere to those principles.” ... “Unfortunately,” he concluded, “that evaluation process is not quite as simple and objective as the reader might have hoped for. But I don’t think there is a better alternative.”
....

kleine@washpost.com
https://twitter.com/ezraklein

[font color="red"]New material, added February 4, 2016:[/font] This article appeared as "Stocks vs. the Economy: Which Ruins Which?"on page C2 of the print edition of The Wall Street Journal. on Tuesday, February 2, 2016.

Does the Economy Ruin the Stock Market or Does the Stock Market Ruin the Economy?

2:49 pm ET
Feb 1, 2016
Markets

By John Carney

Don’t confuse the market for the economy. Markets have overshot fundamentals. There are no signs of contagion into the real economy. ... Anyone paying attention has heard some version of these sentiments lately. Paul Samuelson’s famous quip that the market has predicted nine of the past five recessions is once again on the lips of the wise men and women of Wall Street.

But what if the stock market is more than just an indicator? What if a stock selloff can actually cause unemployment and recessions? ... That’s exactly what historical data on the stock market and the unemployment rate running back to 1929 seem to suggest. A persistent 10% decline in the stock market pushes unemployment up three percentage points.

That, at least, is the finding of University of California Los Angeles economist Roger Farmer. Currently a Distinguished Professor of Economics at UCLA and a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mr. Farmer has been a fellow at the Bank of England and has won awards for his work on inefficiency in financial markets and self-fullfilling prophecies.

In a pair of academic papers written in the wake of the financial crisis, the first published in 2012 and the second published this year, Mr. Farmer has argued that changes in the value of the stock market cause changes in the unemployment rate. The idea will be expanded upon in Mr. Farmer’s forthcoming book, Prosperity for All.

[font color="red"]Moved here, February 6, 2016:[/font] The Federal Reserve looks at, among many other things, the BLS employment reports when it decides what to do with "the interest rate." The interest rate in question is the federal funds target rate. Here is some information about that:

Federal funds rate

The federal funds target rate is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule.

Meet FRED, every wonk’s secret weapon

StorylineMeet the wonks

By Todd C. Frankel August 1, 2014

FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. It serves as an online clearinghouse for a wealth of numbers: unemployment rates, prices of goods, GDP and CPI, things common and obscure. Today, FRED is more than a little bit famous, thanks to the public’s fascination with economic data.

Federal Reserve Economic Data

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that:

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

(Note new link for Jobs Calculator™. Hat tip, progree.)

Monthly Employment Reports from BLS

The U.S. Department of Commerce releases economic data too. Some of its releases come from the U.S. Census Bureau:

U.S. Census Bureau Latest News

U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators

Other Department of Commerce releases come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Bureau of Economic Analysis

For people who need a daily fix:

BLS-Labor Statistics Twitter feed

Read tomorrow's news before it happens. Here's the schedule for all economic reports:

MarketWatch Economic Calendar

and for BLS reports only:

Bureau of Labor Statistics Release Calendar

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #33)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 11:54 AM

35. As always

thank you for your educating folks on this data!!!!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #35)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 11:57 AM

36. I didn't know anyone actually read this.

Thanks for the thread. I get to sleep late, and the figures are there anyway.

As always, please enjoy the weekend. We'll get rain around DC, starting this afternoon. I got some groceries yesterday evening, so I am set.

Best wishes.

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Response to mahatmakanejeeves (Reply #36)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 12:12 PM

37. Hope you enjoy your weekend too

and keep an eye out for Florence! Yikes.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

(it weakened to a tropical storm over the past day or so but is supposed to strengthen again and probably won't be near the east coast until the end of next week if it doesn't curve out to sea)

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 12:53 PM

39. this is yuge, yuge!nt

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Response to elmac (Reply #39)

Fri Sep 7, 2018, 12:59 PM

40. "Yuge" or "Euge"?





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