Brexit in chaos as Tory MPs trigger vote of no confidence in May

[Denzil_DC]

Source: The Guardian

Conservative MPs have triggered a vote of no confidence in Theresa May, plunging the Brexit process into chaos as Tory colleagues indicated they no longer had faith in the prime minister to deliver the deal.

Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 Committee, has received at least 48 letters from Conservative MPs calling for a vote of no confidence in May. Under party rules, a contest is triggered if 15% of Conservative MPs write to the chair of the committee of Tory backbenchers.

A ballot will be held on Wednesday evening between 6pm and 8pm, Brady said, with votes counted “immediately afterwards and an announcement will be made as soon as possible”.

...

The prime minister will now need the backing of at least 158 Tory MPs to see off the Brexiters’ challenge, and her position would then be safe for 12 months. However, the prime minister could decide to resign if votes against her were below the threshold to topple her, but significant enough in number.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/12/brexit-chaos-conservative-mps-trigger-vote-of-no-confidence-theresa-may

---

From the 2017 general election campaign:

[nitpicker]

1. Link to BBC

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-46535739

[Denzil_DC]

2. Backgrounder on potential candidates if May loses the vote:

The race to replace Theresa May: who are the likely candidates?

Seven Conservatives are in the frame should the prime minister lose a no-confidence vote

Dominic Raab

Boris Johnson

Michael Gove

Amber Rudd

Jeremy Hunt

Sajid Javid

Penny Mordaunt

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/19/the-race-to-replace-theresa-may-the-likely-candidates

Or, as summed up on Twitter:

Link to tweet

David Schneider ✔
@davidschneider

Next Tory leader, latest odds:

The one who lied on a bus 6-1
The one who lied about impact assessments 8-1
The one who lied to Parliament and resigned 10-1
The one who lied and didn’t resign 15-1
The one who destroyed the NHS 20-1
The one who didn’t know we were an island 8-1

[Javaman]

11. "The one who didn't know we were an island 8-1" WTF? nt

[muriel_volestrangler]

12. Probably the Sec of State for Exiting the EU's comments about the Dover-Calais route

While he didn't actually say anything about being an island or not, he said he had previously had little clue about the volume of trade going through the major port at the narrowest point of the English Channel:

All at sea: Raab's ignorance of Dover-Calais stuns critics

Opposition parties and pro-remain groups have criticised the Brexit secretary, Dominic Raab, after he admitted that until recently he did not fully appreciate the importance of the Dover-Calais crossing for UK trade.

Speaking at an event on Brexit and the tech industry, Raab said that consumers would lose out if new rules create delays at the border.

In comments reported by the Politico website, he said: “I hadn’t quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.

“And that is one of the reasons why we have wanted to make sure we have a specific and very proximate relationship with the EU, to ensure frictionless trade at the border … I don’t think it is a question so much of the risk of major shortages, but I think probably the average consumer might not be aware of the full extent to which the choice of goods that we have in the stores are dependent on one or two very specific trade routes.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/08/dominic-raab-dover-calais-brexit-uk-france

Link to tweet

[Denzil_DC]

13. I see Muriel's got it covered.

David Schneider is a comedian (and politically very sound), so I think we can allow him some comedic license there.

But his formulation isn't that outlandish when we had David Davis, the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union who didn't realize the UK couldn't start negotiating trade deals while Brexit was in progress, Caroline Nokes, the Immigration Minister who admitted to the NI Affairs Committee that she hadn't read the Good Friday Agreement because she was "probably giving birth" when it was agreed, and Karen Bradley, the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland who didn't realize that people in Northern Ireland tend to vote on sectarian grounds.

(Also: In before some pedant points out we're an archipelago, not an island!)

[nitpicker]

3. Link to live coverage from The Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/dec/12/tory-mps-trigger-vote-of-no-confidence-in-may-amid-brexit-uncertainty-politics-live

[Tiggeroshii]

4. What are the chances it could trigger a general election?

Anything? No clue how british politics work.

[nitpicker]

5. Probably not right away

If I understand correctly, this is a no confidence vote in the leadership of the Conservative Party in Parliament.

If May loses this vote, this would trigger a ballot for new leadership.

Wikipedia definition of something triggering a general election:

Traditionally, in the Westminster system, the defeat of a supply bill (one that concerns the spending of money) is seen to automatically require the governmentt to either resign or ask for a new election, much like a non-confidence vote. A government in a Westminster system that cannot spend money is hamstrung, also called loss of supply.

[nitpicker]

6. More from Wikipedia

In modern times, passage of a motion of no confidence is a relatively rare event in two-party democracies. In almost all cases, party discipline is sufficient to allow a majority party to defeat a motion of no confidence, and if faced with possible defections in the government party, the government is likely to change its policies rather than lose a vote of no confidence. The cases in which a motion of no confidence has passed are generally those in which the government party's slim majority has been eliminated by either by-elections or defections, such as the 1979 vote of no confidence in the Callaghan ministry in the UK which was carried by one vote, forcing a general election which was won by Margaret Thatcher's Conservative Party.

Motions of no confidence are far more common in multi-party systems in which a minority party must form a coalition government. This can mean that there have been many short-lived governments because the party structure allows small parties to defeat a government without means[clarification needed] to create a government. This has widely been regarded as the cause of instability for the French Fourth Republic and the German Weimar Republic. More recent examples have been in Italy between the 1950s and 1990s, Israel, and Japan.

[T_i_B]

8. That depends on whether the Conservative party splits.

Which could happen if the sane wing of the party grows a backbone.

Also if the coalition with the DUP collapses.

[Denzil_DC]

10. This is an internal Tory Party vote of no confidence in May.

It shouldn't be confused with a no confidence vote involving the whole of Parliament, which could pan out as triggering an election.

If May loses this evening's vote, whoever wins the ensuing Tory leadership contest (which could take quite a while if there are a number of candidates) in theory becomes prime minister.

I say "in theory" because it depends on whether a vote of no confidence in Parliament takes place and is carried while the Tory leadership contest is under way, which would trigger the search for a new government of whatever coalition could be cobbled together from existing MPs, and if that failed, a general election.

This is unlikely (I doubt Labour wants to take over at the moment, for instance), but it could happen.

[nitpicker]

7. More from The Guardian live thread

May says if she is replaced new leader would have to delay Brexit


Theresa May says she is going to contest the confidence vote “with everthing I’ve got”.

She says she has been a member of the party for 40 years, and has served it in various posts, including as PM.

She has done so because she wants a better future for the country.

And her priority now is delivering Brexit.

She says she has a passionate belief that a better future is available. And that is now within the country’s grasp.

She met EU leaders yesterday. She was due to go to Dub

She says having a new leader now would put “our country’s future at risk”.


She says a new leader would not have time time reopen the negotiations, and so parliament would be able to take over the
process.

And she says that a new leader would have to delay or revoke article 50.
May says if she is replaced a new leader would have to delay Brexit.

She says the only people who would benefit would be Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell.
(snip)

[Maxheader]

9. Been watching the debate

on rt. Them babies get it on now..

And the murmurs or sounds the assembly makes
during the speeches...Labour seems to think the brexit
platform only benefits the rich? Probably have
that wrong..I dunno, late getting into it...

[T_i_B]

14. Labour's policy on leaving the EU is very similar indeed to the Tories

Just with a different flavour of wishful thinking and empty rhetoric.

[T_i_B]

15. To be honest, I doubt the ERG fruitloops will beat Theresa May tonight

For the simple reason that as bad as Theresa May is as Prime Minister, none of the hardline anti-deal Tories look like they would be any better as PM.

Boris Johnson was a terrible foreign secretary and has all manner of baggage, Jacob Rees-Mogg has no ministerial experience, and is hugely extremist, not to mention ridiculous and alienating. Dominic Raab and David Davis both failed when put in charge of the project to leave the EU. And so it goes on. The alternatives to Theresa May are all even worse quite frankly.

Still, stranger things have happened than the PM losing a vote of confidence like this.