A record 7 million Americans are 3 months behind on their car payments, a red flag for the economy

[Eugene]

Source: Washington Post

By Heather Long February 12 at 11:26 AM

A record seven million Americans are 90 days or more behind on their auto loan payments, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday, even more than during the wake of the financial crisis era.

Despite the strong economy, many Americans continue to struggle to pay their bills. People who are three months or more behind on their car payments often lose their vehicle, making it even more difficult to get to work, the doctor or other critical places.

“The substantial and growing number of distressed borrowers suggests that not all Americans have benefited from the strong labor market,” economists at the New York Fed wrote in a blog post.

There are over a million more “troubled borrowers” now than there were at the end of 2010, when unemployment hit 10 percent and delinquency rates on auto loans peaked. Unemployment today is 4 percent and many more Americans have jobs now, yet a significant number of people still can’t pay their car loan.

-snip-


Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/02/12/record-million-americans-are-months-behind-their-car-payments-red-flag-economy/

[Bengus81]

1. Like I keep saying it's all smoke and mirrors BS on all this hiring........

Unless it's the corner Mikey D's I don't see any huge hiring going on here,new home building is stagnant.

[area51]

2. +1

In looking at job listings, I'm seeing employers acting very picky.

[FBaggins]

30. New home building may be stagnant where you are, but not nationally.

While it doesn't approach the pre-crash peak of 2006, home construction nationally has generally been on the rise for almost a decade now.

[Bengus81]

39. Yeah....apartment complex's. Single family home starts are stagnant..........

"Starts for the volatile multi-family housing segment jumped 24.9 percent to a rate of 417 thousand. On the other hand, single-family homebuilding, which accounts for the largest share of the housing market, went down 4.6 percent to a rate of 824 thousand units, the third straight monthly fall and the the lowest level since May 2017. Starts increased in the South (15.1 percent to 687 thousand) and the Northeast (37.8 percent to 124 thousand) but fell in the West (-14.2 percent to 289 thousand) and the Midwest (-19.2 percent to 156 thousand). Starts for October were revised to 1,217 thousand from 1,228 thousand."

Simple,that's because the prices of new homes have risen so fast most can't afford one,so they start building apt complex's out the ass. I can verify that's EXACTLY what's happening where I live.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/housing-starts

[FBaggins]

40. Nope

Ignore one-month moves and take a look at the trend and you'll see just what I told you. Use your own link and click the 10Y button.

You can clearly see that the 2009 low point was about 475,000 - representing both single-family and multi-family combined. It's been a steady trend upwards for about the last decade. No way to get to ~850k single-family from 475k combined without single-family growth.

[Bengus81]

56. LOL...it says as much in the article but whatever........

Single home building around here is at a crawl and has been for years even with low interest rates---yet their building HUGE apt complex's all over town after years,maybe a decade of building not one new apt complex.

With those rates it should be BOOMING all over the US. Hell,I paid 12.5% on a home loan in late 1981 and that was cheap because it was a bond loan. Single family const boomed here until about two years into Saint Ronnie's run and then the entire industry collapsed.

If rates then were like now I could have paid that home off in 15-17 years instead of 26.

[FBaggins]

59. Confirmation bias

Once again... "the article" was one month worth of data. You can't rationally present it as evidence for a ten-year trend. I pointed you to the ten-year data... were you even going to try to refute it?

Single home building around here

That's the point. You're looking at just what you can see when you look at your tiny piece of the country.

Single family const boomed here until about two years into Saint Ronnie's run and then the entire industry collapsed.

More evidence that your perspective is too localized. You can't pretend that the single-family construction market nationally collapsed in the 80s and never recovered.

Where on Earth is "here"?


Relevant national data from the last six years (taking the 11-month average for 2018 since December wasn't in the books yet). Source NAHB

Single-family starts (in thousands)
2013 - 618
2014 - 648
2015 - 715
2016 - 782
2017 - 849
2018 - 880

5+ Units (a reasonable proxy for "apartments and condos" - in thousands)
2013 - 294
2014 - 342
2015 - 386
2016 - 381
2017 - 343
2018 - 370

Now quick... tell us which of those data sets represent consistent solid growth... and which one represents comparative stagnation?

[gldstwmn]

43. The cost is the issue. I don't know where

people are getting the money to buy these homes. We cannot reasonably sustain costs like this forever. There will be another correction.

[FBaggins]

48. Easy enough to demonstrate

There’s a “home affordability index” that takes into account median costs relative to median income... and it is indeed at levels not seen since the housing collapse.

However, sales are much lower as well. So there’s a fair amount of room to run before another correction is likely.

[onit2day]

35. One of the results of Trump's temper tantrum gov shutdown and going without paychecks

for hundreds of thousands of gov employees and those who depended on their business. Trump purposely made the country hurt for no reason except ego gratification. He threatens to do it again. Isn't that called terrorism?

[bronxiteforever]

3. K & R More here

“Most of the people who are behind on their bills have low credit scores and are under age 30, suggesting that young people are having a difficult time paying for their cars and their student loans at the same time.”

Student loan indebtedness will break a generation of Americans but it’s ok because Betsy Devos is living the high life.

[msongs]

8. who knew borrowed money had to be paid back lol nt

[robbob]

20. Sorry but that's kind of an unempathetic comment!

In order to afford a post secondary education millions of young Americans have to go deeply into dept, far more then anything I had to face 35 years ago. Many of these young people end up with crushing dept that they have no way of digging out of for any foreseeable future, and no prospect of any kind of job that would help them manage such a burden.

[leftofcool]

32. I don't find that statement unempathetic

If you borrow money from the bank/credit union/car company, you have to pay it back period. a 100K student loan debt can be refinanced for 30 years just like a house which keeps the payments down to a reasonable level. The best way to afford college these days is to live at home, start at a community college, get a pell grant to help with costs and work part time to help yourself. If it takes you 8 years to get a 4 year degree then so be it. When you get done, you will have accomplished something and be debt free.

[moriah]

36. Some of the issue is that some degrees just don't get you anywhere without postgrad work.

Admittedly, when I realized my path to my ideal career would take more than six years before I'd ever deal with patients clinically even as a student or under supervision, I decided to forego the dream in favor of skills I already possessed -- dropped out after having never finished my degree. And because I'd done well in the National Merit scholarship test by acing the PSAT, I'd only had to have a Pell Grant to cover my campus room and board. I could have finished the degree, but I wouldn't have been able to DO anything with it.

So before I would have graduated, I was working for a retailer in their internal helpdesk, without taking any stupid classes or getting any certifications. It was a job. A job I did for various companies for many years, but not a career. And since more and more of the tech is getting outsourced, not a path everyone can take.

If I'd continued along my preferred educational path, I'd have been in school for over 8 years, and even with my undergraduate education being practically free... while I don't know what the tuition was then, the tuition onlly for the in-state medical school (I wanted to be a psychiatrist, though I considered Psy.D as some states license them to adjust meds under the guidance of an MD, but mine didn't and the Psy.D program was longer though participation in patient care started a little earlier, and not offered in my state, so would have been just as if not more expensive than med school) is over $34k -- a four year program, so $120k, at the discounted in-state rate. I probably could have convinced my grandmother to let me live with her, but with the way life went by then she was needing care herself vs taking care of other older ladies as she did most of the time I would have been in my undergraduate years.

Obviously I chose the exit that my hobby of tinkering with computers gave me -- and it's not something that can always advance a person like it could back then. Even now, being able to type 50+ WPM is a skill that many have that can get them work -- but the amount of work they can do is limited by how long they can take the RSI of 40-hours of heavy-duty transcription.

Yes, especially if the field you dream of working in is going to require more than a four-year diploma, there are ways to save on the costs for those years, and many can get essentially free rides even without working. But post-graduate studies are a VERY different can of worms, and those who are looking at those fields should consider the total cost of their education AND the length of it. And the fact that some graduate programs are so intensive that you can't try to stretch them -- easiest to do that with is a Masters in Social Work/LCSW, not the Psy.D or MD paths, for my preferred path.

[gtar100]

25. Yea, right.

Student loans today are the modern version of old people sucking on the blood of the youth. Statements like the one you made drip with self-righteousness and lack understanding of the barriors families face when our young men and women seek the education they need for their future. Our future.

[leftofcool]

33. Go to a community college instead of racking up loans at an expensive school.

There are also tech schools to attend that will get you a decent job so you can work your way through college.

[gtar100]

50. Sure. That's not the answer for everyone. And it really misses the point.

We've become a nation of people that, by policy and practice, cares about one thing above all else...making money. And bankers and investors have found a way to make a living off future generations by saddling them with horrendous debt, something which past generations did not have to face. It's a sick, sick system. Older generations are being selfish, greedy and heartless towards youth. What a sad vision of the future we bequeath upon them.

[FakeNoose]

27. Who knew when somebody bought a car, they might end up living in it

It's happening way too often these days. The economy is only "booming" for the one-per-centers, just like always.

[TeamPooka]

28. who knew young people would expect jobs after spending that money on an education

you comment is callous.

[leftofcool]

34. But, they didn't spend their own money on that education

They borrowed it from tax payers. Best thing to do, is take longer to get through college by working your way through it. Increase the Pell grants and scholarships and no one has to take out loans.

[TeamPooka]

37. As long as you have an answer for everything they'll be okay, right?

[Juneboarder]

57. You do realize...

If one chooses to work through obtaining their college education, this might force them to go to school part time so that they can adequately dedicate sufficient time to each of their classes. Have you ever looked at the cost differential between part time and full time college education? It makes almost zero cents to go part time, as the cost is only slightly cheaper, thus you might spend a longer period of time educating yourself, but at the same time you'll be spending exponentially more on college for the same degree.

Your assertion on the matter is sad and callous.

[bronxiteforever]

41. How old are you nt

[hatrack]

46. Oh, so you personally know the circumstances in each case . . .

And you know that they're either scofflaws or ignorant of the concept of a "loan".

Cool story, bro, hyuck, hyuck, hyuck.

[LanternWaste]

54. Who argues it's not?

[Iliyah]

4. Millions have been kicked off of health insurance . . . .

Millions cannot afford house payments nor rent . . . .

Cost of living raising.

[Delphinus]

13. I am working,

and my husband is working, but I'm reluctant to go to the doctor (and we have health insurance) because of what it might cost. We're doing OK but one incident is enough to stop that. I cannot imagine what those with student loans are facing now.

[gldstwmn]

44. Prescription drug costs are also an issue. n/t

[Javaman]

5. employed doesn't always equate to a living wage. nt

[Achilleaze]

6. But republicans can afford to squander our tax money on luxury golf for Dirty Donny*

The so-called republican billionaire & Draft-Dodger-in-Chief.

Sick republican values.

[Dopers_Greed]

7. It's because of stagnant wages

Even people that have full-time jobs can't afford basic essentials.

Debt has stepped in to replace adequate wages.

[watoos]

9. Yeah but, the stock market is booming today.

Not talked about much, but fewer and fewer people are invested in the market. Last I remember only 25% of working class Americans are invested in the market.

[BumRushDaShow]

10. "not all Americans have benefited from the strong labor market,"

"Strong labor market" has nothing to do with actual WAGES being paid to those laborers.

In the "olden days", the formula was that in a so-called "strong labor market", employers would often need to pay more to get and keep better talent. Nowadays, they don't give a shit and basically tell someone If you don't like it, leave... there are plenty more where you came from (and we can just bring them in from overseas to work at half your pay).

[smirkymonkey]

58. +1000

Thank YOU!

[Recursion]

11. SUV & truck sales passed car sales for the first time last year

People are buying more vehicle than they can afford.

[customerserviceguy]

16. And in the process

are spending more money on fuel, worsening their finances.

[Recursion]

21. And killing jobs in US car plants

Unfortunately car production was what US plants had focused on, with SUVs and light trucks being made more overseas.

[gldstwmn]

45. That may be the case but the the fault also lies with the banks giving them the money.

That's predatory lending.

[BigmanPigman]

12. Wait until they realize their tax returns will be small or non-existent.

Last edited Tue Feb 12, 2019, 05:04 PM - Edit history (1)

It is only going to get worse.

[SunSeeker]

24. I was just about to say that!

Yep, it's going to get worse when they don't have their refunds to bail them out.

[IronLionZion]

14. Trump's economy is a steaming pile of BS

Millions of Americans are left behind or worse off because of his policies. The stock market and jobs numbers don't tell the whole story. People who don't have money invested in the market and don't have high income tax bills won't benefit much from a strong stock market and tax cuts.

The one consolation here is the auto loan industry isn't big enough to take down our economy the way mortgages did.

[customerserviceguy]

15. I wonder

if the shutdown has influenced that number.

[cannabis_flower]

17. I didn't think.

You could go that long without them repossessing it.

[melm00se]

18. Back in the day, depending upon the borrower's attitude,

we would put a car out for repo between 45-60 days with an average 7-14 days before recovery.

[Texin]

19. I've worked with working people with good wages who've gotten in trouble.

I knew an established single female paralegal making over $60k annually, who was making monthly car payments, along with her mortgage payment and the monthly homeowners fees. Because of her gender and the fact that she had client contact, she was also compelled to dress smartly. She would get into a budget squeeze virtually every month between paychecks. She didn't have children to raise and she still had trouble making ends meet by the end of each month. She wasn't extravagant by any means. She is typical of a lot of American workers. Single folks or those who have the responsibility for children - some of them requiring daycare - are typical. I know that she'd be in very real trouble had she had an accident or another emergency that would have required reserve funds, and I'm now sure her circumstances didn't change much in the last 10 to 15 years (this was during W's residency, but I'm certain it didn't change much during President Obama's administration either). As Warren says, "the deck is stacked against the average man and woman in this country." It's become institutionalized by the KGOP. tRump didn't create this nightmare, but he's making it even more hellish with each passing day and he has the stupidity to boast about and his addled zombie slaves believe the shit he tells them.

[C Moon]

22. And now with this "make the rich fat" tax setup in full swing,

it will be worse by summer.

They'll be driving new cars and upgrading/buying new homes, while the largest segment struggles.

[SunSeeker]

23. K & R for exposure.

[Perseus]

26. The good economy that Obama left behind is being destroyed by republicans

Nothing new, Democrats fix the economy, work for the people, then repubs come in and they destroy everything the Democrats did for the good of the country and the people.

Many people have predicted the economy would be down mid 2020, I have been predicting 2019, and I still believe that because as long as the orange buffoon is in the WH and the complicit republicans in the senate continue to lick his butt, things are going to continue to go downhill.

[TomCADem]

29. Don't Worry. Trump Will Announce That Unemployment Is Now -2.0%

With all of the layoffs, brick and mortar store closures and losses in the auto industry, the Trump administration's unemployment figures sound sketchy. The biggest red flag is that real wages remain flat even though unemployment is supposedly at historic lows. If employers are killing to hire people, then there would be an increase in real wages.

[Wellstone ruled]

31. This is a truly ugly number,

but,lets not forget. Trump caused a major chunk of this 7 million with his shut down. We know the easy numbers were 800k,but the total numbers were more like 2 million people without Paychecks. We will most likely see the real numbers sometime in May or June,guesstament is going to come in around 5 million directly affected.

Yes,folks have a natural tendency to buy more Car than they should,all it takes is a minor disruption in their daily living and bingo,the Car payment gets hit.

[NickB79]

38. Lots of people buying big, expensive trucks and SUV's

$40K for a new F-150 that only gets 24 mpg, but it's ok because gas is cheap again!

[gldstwmn]

42. We shouldn't have to choose between a house, a car

and food.

[ck4829]

47. "Despite the strong economy...", "strong economy but..." Hmm, makes one wonder.

[sarcasmo]

49. I always thought the Repo came quick, I'm shocked you can miss three months.

[Historic NY]

51. Repo man has lots of new gadgets....

plate readers will find that car.

[Mopar151]

52. Every repo is a loss all around.

If the lender thinks there is a chance that it'll work out, they'll keep trying. If the borrower has gone full Alex Jones, grab it hard, to scare the rest of the rubes.
OTOH, once the lender has toggled over to repo, it's lizard brain time. Must Kill Borrower.

[a la izquierda]

53. And how many of us are behind...

on our student loan payments?
It seems this economy is one jenga piece away from toppling over.

[GatoGordo]

55. I remember when 48 months was the maximum length of car payments

When it went up to 60 months, I was gobsmacked. 5 years... to pay off a car?

It was only recently that a friend of my daughter told me she took out an 8 year car loan. 8 YEARS! So that they could buy a full size, 3/4 ton pickup with all the bells and whistles that they "needed". Needed?

I guess I can't understand the logic. If you can't afford a new vehicle, purchase a used one. It may not be what you "want" but it certainly can get the job done. The way that vehicles depreciate, it doesn't make sense. I haven't purchased a new vehicle in over 20 years, but plenty of 3 year old ones that have depreciated in cost quite significantly while still being reliable. And I haven't had a car loan in over 25 years.

I guess I don't know why vehicles are so expensive now, either. Labor costs... especially since many of these companies are outsourcing manufacturing to third world countries?

It doesn't make sense.

[DeminPennswoods]

60. A forner CFPB top staffer

was on with Ali Velshi today. Only caught the end of the discussion, but the gist was that lenders are doing the exact same thing with car loans as they did with mortgages, packaging them and selling them as securities. It seems car loans were left out of the reforms enacted after the Great Recession of 2008. They're vulnerable to the same tactics banks used on mortgage loans.