Brexit: DUP and ERG say they cannot support May as MPs debate deal - Politics live

[brooklynite]

Source: The Guardian

Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter and chair of the ERG, has just told Sky News that he has not yet decided how he will vote tonight. He will discuss it with ERG colleagues at a meeting later. The ERG has already issued a statement saying MPs should not back the deal. (See 1.38pm.) Asked if he thought the ERG would abstain, or vote against, Rees-Mogg replied: "I would be surprised if many people want to abstain on an issue of this importance."

The DUP has confirmed it will not back the PM’s deal at this point. This is from Arlene Foster, the party leader.

Link to tweet

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/mar/12/brexit-mps-vote-theresa-may-backstop-deal-jeremy-corbyn-politics-live

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The European Research Group (ERG) is a Euroskeptic caucus of the Conservative Party with about 21 members

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is the Tory's majority coalition partner with 10 members

With those defections, if all Opposition Parties vote "no", the Bill will fail.

[Soph0571]

1. DUP thus reinforcing the fact that they actually want a hard border

Never mind what they say ---- the see this as a way of shoring up the Union and distancing NI completely from the republic. The irony of course is that it will end up having the opposite effect. If we go out hard and physical borders are reimposed I predict a border poll in the next 5 years and reunification of Ireland within the decade.

[zipplewrath]

2. Could be ugly first

If a hard border is imposed, I suspect the violence will return in short order. It could get real ugly before all is settled.

[Soph0571]

3. NI is a different place now - people love peace:-)

However customs points on the point will definitely be a huge target for dissidents. Couple that with a severe economic downturn that will happen in that scenario and it is going to get really shaky.

[zipplewrath]

4. A steady erosion.

I'd expect first the "dead enders" will somehow attack the customs points. This will cause an increase in security, which means soon there will be a physical conflict. That will cause an increase in security which will cause escalating stress between general population and security forces. This will develop perceptions that one group is being "singled out" for more harsh treatment. This will cause increased stress between the general population and security forces. It will also begin to cause conflict between groups over perceived differences in treatment. All of this will be the justification for greater security force presence. This will increase conflicts at the border, which will encourage greater more brazen attacks on the customs points. Soon, someone is seriously injured and calls for retribution will start, which will encourage the dead enders to increase their physical conflicts, and it won't be limited to customs points. "Protection squads" will begin to roam near the border to ensure "their" groups are treated correctly, often through threats of conflict and violence. This will cause an increase in security force presence which will increase the stress with the general population.

Then someone dies...

[Soph0571]

5. I hope you are wrong

I am a child of the troubles. And I love that the generation growing up now has no concept of it. When you grow up in a nation of conflict it impacts on everything, your whole being is written by fear and anger. The mental health problems of people of my age in NI is well above the norm for a reason. I will say this, while I appreciate your interpretation of the situation the people of my home land have grown up a lot since the Good Friday Agreement. There will of course always be outliers in this, but generally speaking, people who grew up in the troubles have zero appetite to go back there, on both sides of the divide. Time will tell, but I do believe if the outliers act like eejits, that will not trigger a wider conflict, instead it will trigger a border poll. Of course if the border poll means an all Ireland..... that will be a WHOLE different story.....

[zipplewrath]

6. Minorities drive this

It's always small groups of "dead enders" that drive this stuff. Most revolutions are started by small groups of really angry people.

I've thought that the rich musical and literary history of Ireland is potentially holding the hope. Some one needs to write the fictional novel "let's try peace this time". Someone (Mary Black? U2?) needs to write the song. Really, if Brexit ultimately happens with a hard border, people need to get out ahead of this before the dead enders get involved.

[Soph0571]

7. After today in Parliament - looks like the farmers in NI are the ones who are going to war

They are screwed based on the votes today