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Zorro

(15,921 posts)
Thu Sep 12, 2019, 12:55 PM Sep 2019

Tropical storm Humberto likely to form near Florida, but final destination uncertain

Source: Washington Post

The tropics have been relatively quiet for the past week, but they’re not going to stay that way for long. A tropical storm — which would be dubbed Humberto — is likely to form between the Bahamas and Florida’s east coast and could affect parts of the southeastern United States in the coming days. In addition, an area much farther east in the tropical Atlantic also bears watching.

A disturbance over the central and southeastern Bahamas has become better organized but is a very challenging system to forecast. Its ragged, sloppy structure right now makes it difficult for computer models to project its future path.

We do know it’s favored to develop. In fact, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance in the next five days. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, and the Hurricane Center may begin issuing regular advisories later today.

The most immediate concern is that, according to the Hurricane Center, the disturbance will bring heavy rains (1 to 3 inches or so) and gusty winds in portions of the northwestern Bahamas that were hammered by Hurricane Dorian.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/12/tropical-storm-humberto-likely-form-near-florida-final-destination-uncertain/



Oughtta ask Trump where the storm is heading.
14 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Tropical storm Humberto likely to form near Florida, but final destination uncertain (Original Post) Zorro Sep 2019 OP
If I were in Alabama I would stock up on food & water, am sure the orange weatherman is ready yaesu Sep 2019 #1
See storms in real time here: OxQQme Sep 2019 #2
The models have been all over the place with it at this point BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 #3
Yep, one model has it going to Alabama, one to Carolinas, no shit! Lol Baclava Sep 2019 #5
Yesterday's Euro 0z BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 #6
Suuuuck New England suuuuuck Baclava Sep 2019 #7
The latest seems to have it going way out to sea. RhodeIslandOne Sep 2019 #9
The GFS had showed OTS during the same run time as that ECMWF (Euro) BumRushDaShow Sep 2019 #10
Sharpen the Sharpies packman Sep 2019 #4
I'm in Michigan. Should I be worried? louis-t Sep 2019 #8
If the storm should get to the warm waters of Lake Erie, it could increase. JustABozoOnThisBus Sep 2019 #11
If the storm comes near me, I can sharpie it away louis-t Sep 2019 #12
Yes, draw a line and the storm will veer into Columbus, OH JustABozoOnThisBus Sep 2019 #13
Humberto will be HUGE in Michigan RhodeIslandOne Sep 2019 #14

yaesu

(8,020 posts)
1. If I were in Alabama I would stock up on food & water, am sure the orange weatherman is ready
Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:06 PM
Sep 2019

to predict its path.

BumRushDaShow

(133,446 posts)
3. The models have been all over the place with it at this point
Thu Sep 12, 2019, 01:28 PM
Sep 2019

It will have to form first before the models start zeroing in on a better consensus.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
5. Yep, one model has it going to Alabama, one to Carolinas, no shit! Lol
Thu Sep 12, 2019, 02:08 PM
Sep 2019

Too early to tell, wait n see

BumRushDaShow

(133,446 posts)
6. Yesterday's Euro 0z
Thu Sep 12, 2019, 02:37 PM
Sep 2019

had it going smack into South Jersey like Sandy!

(am hoping that doesn't verify though )

 

RhodeIslandOne

(5,042 posts)
9. The latest seems to have it going way out to sea.
Sat Sep 14, 2019, 02:57 AM
Sep 2019

Maybe that's not the Euro, but I can't imagine such a big disparity.

BumRushDaShow

(133,446 posts)
10. The GFS had showed OTS during the same run time as that ECMWF (Euro)
Sat Sep 14, 2019, 05:48 AM
Sep 2019

(where the Euro sent it up to NJ) but was slower... and then in runs after that, the GFS lost the storm, then it found it and sent it to the GOM.

The current (as of this post) 6z GFS is running and showing it (at least out to 60) right along the FL coast before starting to recurve out.

I think now that it is "officially" a TS (Humberto), the models will hopefully get the circulation data from the recons and be able to refine potential tracks.

JustABozoOnThisBus

(23,543 posts)
11. If the storm should get to the warm waters of Lake Erie, it could increase.
Sat Sep 14, 2019, 11:00 AM
Sep 2019

I think Hurricane Hazel did a number on our neighbor, Toronto, back in the day.

Stay alert, Louis, stay sharpie.

JustABozoOnThisBus

(23,543 posts)
13. Yes, draw a line and the storm will veer into Columbus, OH
Sat Sep 14, 2019, 03:59 PM
Sep 2019

Better it should befuddle the football team at THE Ohio State U.

Go blue.

 

RhodeIslandOne

(5,042 posts)
14. Humberto will be HUGE in Michigan
Mon Sep 16, 2019, 01:38 PM
Sep 2019

"But not as big as me, no way, I was the biggest ever. I was man of the year in Michigan"

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