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Wed Oct 9, 2019, 05:50 PM

Fed Officials Voice Concern About Slowdown's Effect on Hiring

Source: New York Times




WASHINGTON — Several Federal Reserve policymakers, at their most recent meeting, voiced concern that weaker business activity and investment could lead to slower hiring and consumer spending, according to minutes of the meeting published on Wednesday. The Fed cut interest rates for a second time this year at that meeting, in mid-September, after a reduction in July that was its first since the Great Recession. The moves are meant to insulate the economy from major fallout as trade tensions stoke uncertainty and a global slowdown bleeds into American factories.

Policymakers at the September meeting expected the economy to continue growing steadily with the help of their rate cuts, the minutes showed. But they were increasingly worried about risks to that outlook from President Trump’s trade war, the threat of a chaotic British exit from the European Union and protests in Hong Kong.

“Participants generally had become more concerned about risks associated with trade tensions and adverse developments in the geopolitical and global economic spheres,” according to the minutes. “Several participants mentioned that uncertainties in the business outlook and sustained weak investment could eventually lead to slower hiring, which, in turn, could damp the growth of income and consumption.”

The Federal Reserve has two main tasks: promoting maximum employment and maintaining stable inflation, which it defines as 2 percent annual price gains. To achieve those goals, policymakers adjust interest rates to try to keep the economy growing at a steady and sustainable pace. The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee has become increasingly divided over how to achieve those objectives. That is because the economy’s prospects have been clouded by the trade war and other uncertainties even as consumer spending and job growth have held up.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/09/business/economy/federal-reserve-minutes.html

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Reply Fed Officials Voice Concern About Slowdown's Effect on Hiring (Original post)
BumRushDaShow Oct 9 OP
Wellstone ruled Oct 9 #1
progree Oct 9 #2
Wellstone ruled Oct 9 #3

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Wed Oct 9, 2019, 05:58 PM

1. Watch his interview yesterday.

Powell admitted his Agency missed several signs of the Economy going South. His one big concern was the Labor Statistics Numbers. He expressed a need to change the Calculations Formula to better reflect the new Gig economy. People holding more than one job need to be counted in a different manner. Right now they use ADP numbers plus a Algorithm to calculate employment as a whole,and ADP only represents about 20% of USA Companies.

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Response to Wellstone ruled (Reply #1)

Wed Oct 9, 2019, 07:45 PM

2. I've been Googling like crazy - the only thing I can find Oct 8-9 is:

Fed's Powell speaks at National Association for Business Economics meeting – 10/8/2019
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=34&v=2oF4EZ4QdOs

is that it? I don't want to listen to 50 minutes in vain if this isn't the one.

I didn't see any interview in Google results in this time frame (one that Google said was Oct 9 turned out to be July 2018, sigh) ... could it be the above speech?

Note in the first minute the sound volume was very low (despite all volume controls on my computer at 100%), but it's better in the second minute...

I also found this ... probably the same thing ultimately ... but I have to subscribe to learn more (I followed the two "subscriber.politicopro.com" links below, knowing full well it would take me slamming into a paywall, but had to do it anyway).

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-shift/2019/10/09/gorsuch-swing-vote-487274
IS JOB GROWTH REALLY BOOMING?: Job growth has not been as strong as BLS’ monthly jobs reports may indicate, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested Tuesday, POLITICO’s Timothy Noah reports.

"Where we had seen a booming job market, we now see more-moderate growth," Powell said in a speech delivered in Denver ( https://subscriber.politicopro.com/f/?id=0000016d-ac92-dbde-a17d-add6bd2a0001 ) . "The currently reported job gains of 157,000 per month on average over the past three months may well be revised somewhat lower."

While such significant revisions are common, Powell said the Fed has been collaborating with the payroll company ADP to develop a new measure to help gather data on the labor market that will be more accurate more quickly. But despite his expectation that the numbers will be revised down, Powell said “job gains remain above the level required to provide jobs for new entrants to the jobs market over time.” More from Noah ( https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2019/10/powell-says-us-job-gains-are-overstated-3968428 ).


Edited to add: This looks like it might be it -- in text too which I prefer so I can copy and paste and search.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm

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Response to progree (Reply #2)

Wed Oct 9, 2019, 08:40 PM

3. Yes.

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