US flu season arrives early, driven by an unexpected virus

[Omaha Steve]

Source: Omaha World Herald-AP

By Mike Stobbe

NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. winter flu season is off to its earliest start in more than 15 years.

An early barrage of illness in the South has begun to spread more broadly, and there's a decent chance flu season could peak much earlier than normal, health officials say.

The last flu season to rev up this early was in 2003-2004 — a bad one. Some experts think the early start may mean a lot of suffering is in store, but others say it's too early to tell.

"It really depends on what viruses are circulating. There's not a predictable trend as far as if it's early it's going to be more severe, or later, less severe," said Scott Epperson, who tracks flu-like illnesses for the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.


In this Feb. 7, 2018 file photo, a nurse prepares a flu shot at the Salvation Army in Atlanta. The U.S. winter flu season is off to its earliest start in more than 15 years. An early barrage of illness in the South has begun to spread more broadly, and there’s a decent chance flu season could peak much earlier than normal, health officials say. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

AP FILE

Read more: https://www.omaha.com/news/trending/us-flu-season-arrives-early-driven-by-an-unexpected-virus/article_2a536845-803c-5a98-a88c-0431b0d5a499.html

[NBachers]

1. I read the article, but it didn't say if it was a different strain from the one people are being

inoculated against.

[getagrip_already]

2. Anti vaxers are strong in the south....

So its not surprising outbreaks are spreading.

If you dont get vacinated, it doesnt matter what strain it is.

[madaboutharry]

3. The CDC missed the strains a few years back

and there was a massive outbreak even among those who were vaccinated. I hope that is not the case this year.

[Chakaconcarne]

4. Flu vaccines have not been hitting the mark

on a consistent basis and I think people are losing confidence in it. If there are out of pocket costs or access issues, people won't make the effort.

Reports are there is a better vaccine on the horizon.

[Aristus]

6. Even if the CDC predictions are wrong, the vaccine can still confer at least a 25% immunity.

Partial immunities are rarely less than that, and can be the difference between life and death.

Bottom line: get your flu shot.

[tavernier]

7. Yes, and your resistance is stronger

when you haven’t suffered an attack the previous year.
Most definitely get the shot.

(Know-it-all Nurse here)

[Aristus]

8. Nurses are the BEST!

[tavernier]

9. Awww

Tanks!!

[NBachers]

11. Yup- got mine on October 8. Thanks for the extra reassuring information. I didn't know that.

[GopherGal]

10. Hard to find much info on the strains

I did find something that said it's the Influenza B strain that's predominating. It also said that the B strains tend to hit children harder than old people.

[link:https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/03/health/early-flu-season-louisiana-eprise/index.html|]

Okay. Here's a source I trust:

[link:https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/#S3|]

Activity is being caused mostly by influenza B/Victoria viruses, which is unusual for this time of year. H1N1 viruses are the next most common, followed by H3N2 viruses, which are decreasing in proportion.

If I parse some of the details of the update correctly, it looks like the Influenza B circulating is 97.1% "Victoria lineage" which matches what was in the trivalent shot (like I got...) But there's some more detailed testing doesn't have a boiled-down interpretation anywhere. I *think* it means that there is some drift in the antigens in that lineage (though if I'm right it means more than half still match the vaccine strain)

And... a little more searching finds that WHO is recommending a different B strain for the Southern Hemisphere vaccine for 2020 (as well as a different A H3N2, it looks like)
[link:http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2019/09/two-strains-changed-southern-hemisphere-2020-flu-vaccine|]

[marlakay]

12. I missed getting shot because

Of illness and two shingles shots few months apart and traveling. Was going to get it last week and came down with bad cold.

I still have bad cold and cough. How soon after illness can I get it???