US has more than 200K cases of coronavirus. And carriers who don't feel sick are fueling the spread

[El Supremo]

Source: CNN

The number of US coronavirus cases surged by more than 14,000 in just a few hours Wednesday as the death toll topped 4,400.

As of Wednesday afternoon, more than 210,000 people in the United States have been infected, and at least 4,669 have died.

Now, more data showing people without symptoms are fueling the spread has top officials rethinking whether the general public should be wearing masks.

New data from Iceland shows 50% of those who tested positive said they were asymptomatic.

In the US, an estimated 25% of coronavirus carriers have no symptoms, said the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/health/us-coronavirus-updates-wednesday/index.html

[DeminPennswoods]

1. Since the US isn't testing everyone,

who knows?

[OnlinePoker]

3. I don't think many countries are testing everyone.

Here in B.C. (Canada), they're only testing if you're symptoms warrant a trip to the hospital.

[EllieBC]

4. Yup.

If you have symptoms they tell you to assume you have it and to stay home. That’s it.

I mean unless you’re wealthy or famous.

[LovingA2andMI]

2. THIS....PART......

Now, more data showing people without symptoms are fueling the spread has top officials rethinking whether the general public should be wearing masks.

They have been doing this in China, South Korea and now the Czech Republic too....

The Guardian.

Czechs get to work making masks after government decree

Czech citizens have mobilised in a national effort to make and distribute home-made masks after the government decreed face-wear mandatory for everyone in an effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic.

The government, led by the prime minister, Andrej Babiš, has trumpeted mask-wearing as vital in controlling the spread of the virus and has urged other governments to follow suit.

The Czech Republic and neighbouring Slovakia are the only two countries in Europe to impose mandatory mask-wearing, the supposed benefits of which – although endorsed by the World Health Organization – are disputed by some.

The arguments in favour are explained in a government-sponsored video that features an appearance by the Czech health minister. Adam Vojtěch.

“The Czech Republic is one of the few in Europe that has significantly slowed down the spread of the virus,” the narrator says. “The main difference is that everyone who has to leave their house has to wear a mask.”

But rather than provide the masks itself, the government has relied on the initiative of ordinary Czechs to ensure compliance with a rule issued days after a general emergency was declared that sealed the central European country’s borders and closed all but essential shops and services – a move that transformed the tourist hub of Prague into a virtual ghost town.

Pharmacies have put up signs declaring that they do not provide specially made surgical masks, which are already in short supply for health professionals.

Fashion students at Umprum Academy of Art, Architecture and Design in Prague were spurred into action after a plea was posted on Facebook for masks for one of the city’s biggest maternity hospitals, Podoli.

“The students are making hundreds and hundreds of masks,” said Alice Klouzkova, an assistant and teacher at the academy’s fashion design studio. “Most of them have sewing machines at home and are happy to work with their hands. It’s important that the material is made with 100% cotton so it can be sterilised.”

One website, Damerousky.cz, offers an interactive map for those offering or looking for masks, while a collecting point has been set up at Prague city hall and other municipalities to distribute masks to vulnerable groups.

The effort has been almost universally embraced – although there have been instances of people lowering their masks in public parks to smoke, or to drink beer outside the few pubs still serving takeaway beer."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/czechs-get-to-work-making-masks-after-government-decree-coronavirus

[C Moon]

5. There it is. I knew they would come out soon and tell us to wear masks.

Like I said in a previous post, during the 1918 pandemic, Los Angeles county had a law that you had to wear masks when in the public, or face a penalty (it was probably more of a scolding depending on your attitude...I'm sure there were "anti-maskers." )

[Baclava]

12. People back then were pretty smart

[Aussie105]

6. That's no surprise, surely?

A virus that kills instantly, or gives indications of infection within minutes won't get a chance to spread.

It relies on a window of opportunity to spread, an infected person moving about and spreading it even before they know they have been infected.

Solutions:

1. Everybody, infected or not, self isolates.
2. Everybody, infected or not, wears a mask (N95) whenever they need to step out.
3. Cheap, self test from your local pharmacy (doesn't exist yet.) Self test in the morning, if positive, ring in to work with the news you are staying home for a few weeks. If clear, self test in the evening. Repeat the next day.

Of course, none of this works if effective masks aren't readily available (they aren't) and self tests aren't available (they aren't).

So the virus will spread, even with our best efforts. Going to flatten the curve at best.

Bring on the vaccine, stat!

[Igel]

9. Most viruses, as far as we know, usually wind up causing symptoms.

This is the claim that you could have had it, been infectious for days, and not even have a sniffle.

That first guy who was identified on 1/21 in the US could have infected 6 people in the US before he was identified.

3 of them could have been strangers on the plane, in the airport, who showed no symptoms. Ever. And unless we had universal testing every few days, they'd have been infecting people and nobody would know it was them--half of the newly infected people also showing no symptoms, but be infectious.

It would create a stealth R0 1/2 of what the medical experts calculate. Instead of tracing back to find people showing symptoms, they'd have to ID every person and test them after holding them in seclusion for 48 hours.

It was obvious with the first reliable reports of asymptomatic spread that this virus was uncontainable. You need a total lock down to allow it to play out without the ability of those infected to infect others before recovering to stop it. And even then, there's a lot of luck needed. And when you're done, you need to make sure that nobody from outside the area that could be infectious gets in.

What you say requires a few hundred million tests be done per day for the US. And that they be done properly. And that those who are infectious but without symptoms be prevented from spreading the virus.

And since every test has a false negative rate ...

[totodeinhere]

7. That's a little over a 2% death rate but sadly the rate might go up as some of the sickest people

go on to die. Or the rate could go down as we identify more asymptomatic people.

[Aussie105]

11. You won't get tested

if you have no symptoms.

Ask your local doctor.

[mpcamb]

8. Untested. Untested. UNTESTED!

...just suggesting where the problem may lie.

[Aussie105]

10. This is why

I'd love to see a self test kit readily available.
Say, $1 each in bulk, from your local pharmacy.

Test yourself, and act appropriately. Right now, I'm a bit clammy, with sore throat, bit of a headache.

Do I have it?

Am I possibly spreading it if I go out shopping?

Just don't know.

No one does.

And that, folks, is how the virus spreads.

[soryang]

13. Whether the public should be wearing masks?

this is only a political issue. it's ass covering for lack of preparation. scientifically, there is no debate. Masks work.