HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Latest Breaking News (Forum) » U.S. coronavirus death pr...

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 02:10 PM

U.S. coronavirus death projection lowered but official warns of 'second wave'

Source: Reuters

NEW YORK, April 8 (Reuters) - An influential university model on the U.S. coronavirus pandemic on Wednesday scaled back its projected death toll by 26% to 60,000 but a federal health official warned of a second wave of infections if Americans relax "social distancing" practices.

The downward revision in the death toll in the University of Washington model - often cited by U.S. and state policymakers - coincides with comments by some political leaders that caseloads may have reached a plateau in certain areas.

Those assessments in recent days, including an apparent leveling out in hospitalizations in New York state - the U.S. epicenter of the pandemic - are tempered by a persistent climb in the U.S. death toll, which rose by more than 1,900 on Tuesday as some 30,000 new infections were reported.

New York Mayor Bill De Blasio told a briefing on Wednesday that coronavirus-related hospitalizations in the most populous U.S. city had stabilized and that the need for ventilators was lower than projected.



Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-coronavirus-death-projection-lowered-but-official-warns-of-second-wave/ar-BB12ktBL?li=BBnbcA1

33 replies, 2249 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 33 replies Author Time Post
Reply U.S. coronavirus death projection lowered but official warns of 'second wave' (Original post)
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Apr 8 OP
Squinch Apr 8 #1
Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Apr 8 #3
Squinch Apr 8 #5
orleans Apr 8 #15
Skittles Apr 8 #17
Squinch Apr 8 #21
BigmanPigman Apr 8 #27
FBaggins Apr 8 #13
Squinch Apr 8 #20
FBaggins Apr 8 #25
obamanut2012 Apr 9 #30
saidsimplesimon Apr 8 #2
asiliveandbreathe Apr 8 #4
Initech Apr 8 #18
Marthe48 Apr 8 #6
Initech Apr 8 #16
Marthe48 Apr 8 #19
Initech Apr 8 #22
Marthe48 Apr 8 #23
Initech Apr 8 #24
Stallion Apr 8 #7
usaf-vet Apr 8 #8
dhill926 Apr 8 #12
usaf-vet Apr 9 #31
ffr Apr 8 #9
docgee Apr 8 #11
SWBTATTReg Apr 8 #10
ananda Apr 8 #14
Politicub Apr 8 #26
Newest Reality Apr 8 #28
BigmanPigman Apr 8 #29
logme Apr 9 #32
Marrah_Goodman Apr 10 #33

Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 02:17 PM

1. The University of Washington model is ridiculous. Has been ridiculous since it came out.

Continues to be ridiculous.

We will learn, sometime in the months to come, that it was funded by a lot of right wing money.

By that time it will have been used to justify ending isolation, and a new wave of deaths will have begun.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Squinch (Reply #1)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 02:18 PM

3. What do you consider better then?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Reply #3)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 02:24 PM

5. Check out the link in this post:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213155798

On March 20, they almost exactly predicted the number of deaths that occurred as of yesterday.

Their assumptions that led to that amazingly accurate prediction, if you work the math out, would indicate that over 100,000 deaths will result just from the infections that occurred by March 23.

And many infections have occurred since March 23. The rate of increase IS reducing quickly and isolation IS working, but 60,000 is just silly.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Squinch (Reply #5)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 04:49 PM

15. wow! i just compared

your link to the article said:
"These calculations imply that the American death toll will be 12,800 on April 7th. "
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213155798#post49


i went on cdc that says it was updated april 8th and found:
"Total deaths: 12,754"
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html#2019coronavirus-summary


so what is the model the cdc is using?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to orleans (Reply #15)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 05:06 PM

17. the model of trying to please Trump

that's what

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to orleans (Reply #15)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 05:25 PM

21. Yes. So their assumptions are likely pretty good.

We can keep checking. They also predict the day we hit 20000. I'll be watching to see if that is as accurate.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Squinch (Reply #21)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 06:32 PM

27. I like percentages and numbers to be able to compare

and the info at the link is great. The column "1 M pop" now says 33 for the US, last week it was 22. Still low compared to some countries but it is climbing fast.

Those graphs on the link are excellent. I follow each country and state and monitor them every day. I also us these charts at this link and numbers for the states....

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Squinch (Reply #1)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 04:13 PM

13. Yet their projections have been fairly consistently on the high side

when compared to reported figures.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to FBaggins (Reply #13)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 05:25 PM

20. How do you figure?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Squinch (Reply #20)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 06:21 PM

25. My math skills extend to comparing two figures over and over

Iíve been watching their projections nationally and for several key states daily for some time now. The reason that their projections have been adjusted downward twice in the last week or so is that the vast majority of daily figures have come in well below their earlier projections.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Squinch (Reply #1)

Thu Apr 9, 2020, 12:05 PM

30. The UW model was lietrally only off by ONE NYS death yesterday

One.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 02:17 PM

2. This is good news. I love NY.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 02:22 PM

4. My mantra..IT DIDN'T HAVE TO HAPPEN..there is blood on their hands..

The whole tRump mob family and their cult..including the republicon party...I am disgusted - I have trouble even forming a coherent assessment of the world today..

My heart is with our front line workers, EMT's, Nurses, Doctors, Firemen and women, Police, Military personnel, and of course DU, and all the families who support those who have given the most..

Even one death from this disease is too many...I do fear a resurgence should we let down our guard..as it is now, some people have not taken STAY AT HOME seriously enough..

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to asiliveandbreathe (Reply #4)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 05:07 PM

18. And it's going to be the Christian right who will be largely responsible for a resurgence.

There was a church in Sacramento that was reported as being a hot zone of cases because the church refused to comply with social distancing measures.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 02:36 PM

6. Even a handful of deaths is unacceptable

60,000 is horrifying. The other losses, economic, emotional bonds, cultural mores, are horrifying, but the loss of human life is heart-breaking.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Marthe48 (Reply #6)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 05:03 PM

16. Yeah the economy can be rebuilt. The lives destroyed cannot.

Plus the ripple effect of all those lost from this is going to be immense.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Initech (Reply #16)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 05:17 PM

19. Friends have relatives who have been exposed

I have friends and relatives who are nurses or other medical personnel. I try to stay upbeat. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Marthe48 (Reply #19)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 05:32 PM

22. My brother is an ER doctor.

He's treated patients and hooked them up to ventilators and respirators. He's seen members of his own staff get infected. It's real.

And he's been a lot of doom and gloom lately. He says it will get better but we have to be vigilant about it or there's gonna be a second wave like the 1918 flu.

A lot of what he's been talking about is worst case scenario, because that's what they prepare for. But as you said I would rather prepare for the worst and hope that doesn't happen.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Initech (Reply #22)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 05:38 PM

23. He's on the front line

A daughter of a friend is a nurse and was exposed. She is in self-isolation at home. Another friend has a niece in a nursing home, who tested positive.

I'm in s.e. Ohio and have heard that some people think we might have already had a dose in Dec. Jan. Many severe upper respiratory ailments that were negative for flu. Is it possible? Without testing, who knows?

I'll send a prayer for your brother.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Marthe48 (Reply #23)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 05:41 PM

24. I don't know, it's hard to say.

I can bring it up next time I talk to him.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 03:00 PM

7. Depends on Who is doing the Counting

widespread reports that maybe 25% of those dying especially at home are not being counted because they never "tested" for Coronavirus-we know Red States will put a thumb on the scale

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 03:01 PM

8. If you don't mind i will wait for the final revised numbers. I think the evidence is clear....

... that not every Covid-19 death is being recorded. Some I'm sure some are due to the overload in the systems at all points. Others might be intentional for obvious political reasons.

My bet would be that the "official" White House numbers will be significantly LOW.

Trump has been lying about the numbers since inauguration day. Then rally crowd size. The poll numbers. And so on, and so on.....

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to usaf-vet (Reply #8)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 03:53 PM

12. what you said...

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to usaf-vet (Reply #8)

Thu Apr 9, 2020, 12:12 PM

31. Update1. This is WHY. We must wait until ALL the numbers are in.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 03:11 PM

9. FYI, if the person isn't tested to confirm Covid-19, their death isn't reported as Covid-19

even if all indications are that they had Covid-19.

It appears to be tRump's plan, to lower the estimated deaths by this disease by manipulating who is counted and who is not.

And we all know there is a concerted effort to make sure there are not enough tests to go around. We also know that no dead people are being tested, so the numbers being reported are skewed lower.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to ffr (Reply #9)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 03:36 PM

11. I saw something from a MAGAt poster yesterday saying

that not everyone who has tested positive for covid19 that dies, is actually dying from covid19 vs something else they had. So that's their logic for saying the number of deaths are being over counted.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 03:24 PM

10. IMHO, we'll have multiple waves being that the CV is so contageous. As we can see from the ...

news reports, there are still a lot of people who aren't taking this seriously. They will, before long.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 04:26 PM

14. Is testing and reporting accurate and sufficient?

I have my doubts.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 06:27 PM

26. I don't see how China will avoid a second wave in another city.

It just takes one person to start the exponential growth of a pandemic. It doesnít make sense.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 06:44 PM

28. We are going to need...

Last edited Wed Apr 8, 2020, 07:21 PM - Edit history (2)

We are going to need a REAL, professional, trained person to be a National Health Czar when we get the dictator and his family, (nepotism) and loyal sycophants and grifters out, (they are a bad disease in themselves).

There is no telling how many possible waves of COVID-19 there may be yet and there is NO guarantee that there won't be more mutations and inflections coming one after the other. Climate change is causing conditions that encourage this and that includes the rapid melting of the permafrost where any number of deadly pathogens could be waiting to be unleashed, possibly even worse than ebola and COVID-19--much worse!

Since we can put so much of our resources into a war on a word, "terrorism", (which oddly doesn't see to be in vogue right now and I guess it's no problem???) we certainly can create a strong preparatory system that shields us and is ready to respond rapidly, responsibly and in a high-tech, precise way wherever it is needed.

That is going to be absolutely essential for our new, real, Administration. I can't emphasize that enough. This is not a problem that can be ignored and cast aside now, even if COVID-19 wanes.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Newest Reality (Reply #28)

Wed Apr 8, 2020, 07:17 PM

29. Yes, every word!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Thu Apr 9, 2020, 03:48 PM

32. IHME seems overly optimistic for countries that actively track death outside hospitals

Hi,

I checked IHME projection closely. As they offered us a glimmer of hope, but I noticed diverging accuracy depending on the country their model is applied to.


Note bene :

After some time to adjust Italy & France seems to have put in place a more systematic counting of covid-19 related death, Spain followed with minor issues with numbers from retirement homes.

The UK seems to have some logistical issue at the moment but the government recently pledge to count all tested covid-19 death, not only those in hospitals.

I am not sure how IHME build its model, but you will notice a divergence between most EU countries & the US or the UK.

This is possibly due to issues with the collect of data or the use of different criteria, it is still unclear.


[url=https://ibb.co/zGSQrKD][img][/img][/url]

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin (Original post)

Fri Apr 10, 2020, 07:42 AM

33. We don't even know the real death numbers

People who die without being tested are not being tested after death and therefore are not counted in the figures.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread