U.S. Projects Summer Spike in Infections if Stay-At-Home Orders Are Lifted

[jayschool2013]

Source: New York Times

Stay-at-home orders, school closures and social distancing greatly reduce infections of the coronavirus, but lifting those restrictions after just 30 days will lead to a dramatic infection spike this summer and death tolls that would rival doing nothing, government projections indicate.

The projections obtained by The New York Times come from the departments of Homeland Security and Health and Human Services. The models use three scenarios. The first has policymakers doing nothing to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. The second, labeled “steady state,” assumes schools remain closed until summer, 25 percent of Americans telework from home, and some social distancing continues. The third scenario includes a 30-day shelter in place, on top of those “steady state” restrictions.

The documents, dated April 9, contain no dates for when shelter in places orders were delivered nor do they contain specific dates for when spikes would hit. The risk they show of easing shelter-in-place orders currently in effect in most of the country undercut recent statements by President Trump that the United States could be ready to reopen “very, very soon.”

The model foresees a bump in the demand for ventilators — considered a stand-in for serious Covid-19 infection rates — 30 days after stay-at-home orders are issued, a major spike in infections about 100 days after, and peaking 150 days after the initial order. (Assuming further shelter-in-place policies are not implemented to reduce future peaks.)

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/us/coronavirus-updates-usa.html

---

Oy.

[bucolic_frolic]

1. We've been slow to be informed and realize

this is a multiple wave pandemic that could take 15-36 months to play out and extinguish. So much rests on a vaccine.

[EarthFirst]

2. That's unpossible. The heat & humidity will zap it!

The entire summer bbq season is upon us in mere weeks. Weeks!

[flibbitygiblets]

6. Yup, like magic! It will just "wash through".

(Insert insane hand gestures here.)

[FrodosNewPet]

17. His invisible accordion

The man who would be Myron Floren

[flibbitygiblets]

19. 👆 That is freaking awesome 👆

If the news networks won't stop airing his daily campaign rallies, er, "coronavirus updates", the least they could do is ad these effects.

Come on CNN, you owe us!!

[Kitchari]

23. Ha!

this is superb

[Steelrolled]

3. The longer we can stretch it out the better.

We want more immune people in the population, for herd immunity. But hopefully we get a vaccine and get it sooner than later.

[we can do it]

14. Not going to be soon. 12-18 months.

[DavidDvorkin]

4. However, the only projection that counts is the one Donald Trump pulls out of thin air

Or wherever it is he pulls his invented numbers from.

[Submariner]

5. The Trump death panel will probably calculate that those over 70

are on their last legs anyway, as White House adviser Bill falafel O'Reilly stated yesterday. So, I was going to die in a few years anyway, so no need to maintain social distancing just for a bunch of old boomers.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

8. That lie is easily refuted later when we can look at the "surplus" deaths.

In Lombardy, Italy, obituaries were running something like 10 times normal. We wouldn't say that 90% of those who died would have died in a few days anyway.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

7. It's NOT shelter-in-place. It's Stay At Home. Oddly, NYT uses dashes in two place but not another.

[Warpy]

9. Lockdown is unsustainable.

People are going to run out of food, cash, and patience. Lockdown is not a long term strategy, it's one to buy time. It's been wasted time in our case because Big Dummy wants to micromanage the distribution of every single face mask in the country and results have already been disastrous for health care workers.

Yes, there will be a spike in cases. However, if they tried to keep this going until fall of winter, that spike would be enormous. Remember, every person who gets this and gets over it is immune. Flattening the curve will occur when enough people are immune that transmission is slowed.

In the absence of a vaccine, that is how it's going to work. Hiding from it won't, especially with Big Dummy fucking everything up.

It's not about ventilators, most of the people who are ill enough to go onto one with this disease will die, that is the sad truth. It's about protective equipment for health care workers. It's about a 99% survival rate with about 14% of those needing oxygen but not a vent. It's also about a malignant narcissist who is so driven to micromanage according to loyalty that he's effectively holding a gun to the head of every health care worker out there.

Well, not in Florida. They got twice as many of everything as they requested.

[DarthDem]

10. It's actually about following the South Korea/Taiwan model

Reopening with immediate testing of anyone who's symptomatic, with resulting quarantines and contact tracing. This needs to be implemented starting now. If they can do it, so can the United States of America. This is the exit strategy, and we already have proof from those countries that it works.

[Warpy]

11. You know what needs to be done and I know what needs to be done

and most people out there know what needs to be done, but there's a bloated malignant narcissist in our way.

Until he's gone, forget it.

[DarthDem]

12. Ay, there's the rub

n/t

[Bernardo de La Paz]

13. SKorea flattened & peaked-out the curve first. US is flattening (yay!) but not there yet.

Also: very different: SKorea tested early and aggressively.

Further, they really had a lockdown. Not a funky half-assed some-stay-at-home.

[DarthDem]

18. Not Accurate, In Fact

Actually, South Korea had no lockdown at all.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

20. I think you are right on that one point. . . . nt

[NickB79]

21. Those models required GPS tracking of most citizens via apps

Using their smartphones to quickly identify people exposed to a confirmed infected patient.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment

And

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/F17ADA06-7367-11EA-AA1E-FE177E78275D

That will never be accepted in the US at the numbers needed. It's a level of Big Brother even a lot of Democrats would be wary of, much less Republicans.

[DarthDem]

22. That's certainly an issue

But I bet you didn't think everyone would willingly stay in their homes for long periods either.

[elleng]

15. No sh*t, sherlock!

[appleannie1]

16. As long as anyone is infected and it can find another host, it will spread. Period.

[TryLogic]

24. A big spike is coming in the second half of April.

I was out today (Friday, April 10) going for some groceries and to a drug store in Colorado where people have been somewhat compliant with the distancing, stay-at-home orders. There were people everywhere. Lots of traffic. Not too many in a health oriented food store, but several in the drug store, and none in the drug store were wearing masks. I was the only one in the drug store wearing a mask. Then, of course, there are those who want to prove they trust God to protect them who will gather for worship services on Sunday. Oh, and if God does not protect them, then it was God's plan for them. It would seem they are willing to die for Trump's lies.

This is a very good time to avoid fools.

[lunasun]

25. ++"This is a very good time to avoid fools"

[OhioChick]

26. Oh hell, it would spread like wildfire, worse than it's been n/t