Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach 'herd immunity' in weeks

[hueymahl]

Source: CNBC

Unlike its neighbors, Sweden did not impose a lockdown amid the coronavirus outbreak.

The strategy — aimed at building a broad-base of immunity while protecting at-risk groups like the elderly — has proved controversial.

But Sweden’s chief epidemiologist has said “herd immunity” could be reached in Stockholm within weeks.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

[greenjar_01]

1. Derp derp derp

HeRd ImMuNiTy blargle



So dumb.

[DBoon]

2. "herd immunity" means "we hope it doesn't get worse"

In this case, I suspect a certain amount of wishful thinking.

"maybe we should have locked down like everyone else. Since we didn't lets spin this as best we can and hope someone believes the spin"

[pnwmom]

26. They're at 20% now, they say, and expect 60% in a few weeks.

How is that supposed to happen?

Yes, it's wishful thinking. It's also wishful thinking that cases will magically stop at 60%.

[IronLionZion]

3. "could be reached"

Killing off the sick and old used to be considered a Nazi mentality.

Sweden has more than twice as many deaths as nearby Norway, Denmark, Finland, and Iceland combined.

[tavernier]

49. Everyone keeps saying the sick and the old

But in my state the average age that tested positive was 51. I don’t see that as old.

[IronLionZion]

53. Tested positive is different from being dead

It's all relative based on what you compare it to. People younger than me think I'm old.

The risk of dying is higher as a person accumulates more underlying conditions over time. Nevertheless, there are super healthy people in their 90s who have tested positive and then recovered successfully. There are teenagers who have died from it.

[rampartc]

4. there is plenty of question whether "herd immunity" is possible

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/03/15/can-you-get-infected-by-coronavirus-twice-how-does-covid-19-immunity-work/#39f5abfc5c0f

[greenjar_01]

18. The concept of "herd immunity"

might have some faint and limited relevance for a disease like measles, for which there have been thousands of years of human exposure (some speculate that the plague of Athens in the fifth century BCE was a measles outbreak), and decades of near universal vaccination. And even there, ten years of anti-vaxxer nonsense threatens any meager gains.

To apply the concept to a novel corona virus - with the insipid notion that once it "runs through" a population, what you'll have left are immune individuals - manages to be both epidemiologically stupid and morally repugnant.

[rampartc]

30. "both epidemiologically stupid and morally repugnant." +1

[Renew Deal]

5. This can all be over much quicker if you let everyone get sick.

It's a matter of what your priorities are.

[Red Pest]

43. Huh? Are you being sarcastic?

Before vaccines was there herd immunity to polio or smallpox or plague? Is there herd immunity to any microbial disease unless we have constant vaccination of naive populations?

We do have herd immunity to polio and measles and chicken pox, etc. only because we have active and vigorous programs of vaccination against these and other diseases.

Without a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2, this will never be over. It will keep coming back as new hosts are born and those not infected by earlier waves are infected. Further, this virus appears to have jumped from bats and perhaps pangolins to humans and cats. There may be other animal hosts. If that is the case, the virus will not just disappear, it will continue to circulate between its various host species. This is the case with a number of infectious diseases. Here are some examples: influenza, EEE, West Nile virus, Yersinia pestis (plague), Borrelia burgdorferi (Lyme disease), Rickettsia rickettsia (Rocky Mountain spotted fever), etc. While some of the disease that I named here require a vector, that just makes the point even more.

One other point, infectious microbes are subject to evolution. Selection by host reactions to infection (aka immune response) will result in new strains of infectious agents. This will include SARS-CoV-2.

So...over quicker? Over ever? We shall see.

[Renew Deal]

44. I'm half joking

It's the entire point of "flattening the curve." No social distancing means that millions of people die within a few months and then it's over. It's the republican party platform.

[IronLionZion]

54. Peak the curve and get back to work

Greed Over People (GOP)

[LisaL]

46. No, it's epidemiology.

If everybody was allowed to go normally, a lot people get infected, a lot of people die, but it would be over quicker.

[majdrfrtim]

56. LisaL: Your assumption that "it would be over quicker" implies that

'those who survive the initial wave will be protected against the disease' and 'we'll never be bothered by this again,' which seem pretty naive.

We don't know if the antibodies generated against *this* virus necessarily even *clear* the virus from the person. (See the studies from China and South Korea indicating the continued presence of the virus in the bodies of individuals who had the disease, survived, and have been asymptomatic for eight to thirty days -- and still test positive for the virus! Hence the real question as to whether an effective vaccine can even be developed against SARS-CoV-2.) We frankly just don't know enough about the biology of this virus because it's still so "novel."

The second wave of the 1918 pandemic flu was more deadly than the first wave, despite the huge numbers of individuals who'd survived that first wave. Many of them wound up dying in the second wave. By your reasoning, there shouldn't have been a second wave, right?

Oh, and there was a third wave after that one -- not quite as deadly, but lots of people did die, nonetheless.

What was "quick" about all that?

[hueymahl]

6. Once this is all over

It will be interesting to see if Sweden's strategy is valid. Will they have more deaths after two years for fewer deaths than those that followed the path generally recommended? Will they have achieved herd immunity, or will cases continue to pop up at a greater rate than surrounding countries.

From an academic and epidemiology standpoint, really will be fascinating to see if this "experiment" works or fails miserably.

[NonPC]

32. I Agree

Whether or not this experiment is deemed "successful", at least with enough data collection and later analysis, it will be a learning lesson for Sweden and the rest of the world.

Or, maybe the Chief Epidemiologist in Sweden will quote a famous line from Animal House and say, "You fucked up, you trusted me."

[Igel]

33. They're bucking the models.

But the models aren't sacred writ.

The really scary thing, I think, would be for the curve in Sweden to look like the curve in most other places that had lockdowns. Then there'll be the debate whether the lockdown was necessary. I think it was, but I fairly often like when reality says I'm wrong.

Either way, those insisting that since we locked down that was what worked, either way. If Sweden's a hellhole, it could only be the lockdown that kept places like Virginia and New York and Washington State so safe. If Sweden's not a hellhole, then either Sweden had the functional equivalent of our lockdown because they're so much better or we Americans were sucky at our lock down so it doesn't count as a counter example.

[lagomorph777]

52. Define "success." - If the definition of success allows for millions of dead, then sure.

Would that also be a valid definition for asteroid protection?

[hueymahl]

59. Fair Question

I think success would be that a similar (or fewer) number of people died or were substantially injured by the disease vs. what other countries suffered who engaged in sweeping lockdowns.

IF (and that is a big if) Sweden achieves this, then that will be evidence that something was very wrong with the plans enacted by most other countries (either something wrong with the underlying theories or something wrong with the execution).

Regardless, I expect this to be studied extensively for decades or even centuries. Like I said originally, it's really a fascinating opportunity for epidemiologists to learn from.

[Grokenstein]

7. Sweden's got low population density.

Much like those states in the U.S. where the coronavirus still hasn't gone absolutely hog wild despite Donny's best efforts to let it "wash over us."

Also this, from the linked article: "Unfortunately the mortality rate is high due to the introduction (of the virus) in elderly care homes and we are investigating the cause of that." -- Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden's Public Health Agency

While they intended to "protect" at-risk groups, that hasn't worked out so well.

[Newest Reality]

22. Heheh.

I chuckled. "...Donny's best efforts."

That's funny on many levels.

[Igel]

34. Protecting nursing homes hasn't worked out so well here, either.

Doesn't give us a whole lot of room to boast.

[yaesu]

8. they don't even know how long immunity will last, if its even viable with this virus. nt

[gab13by13]

13. Exactly,

there may not be such a thing as herd immunity with this virus. Not to mention, a lot of people are reporting that this virus has several strains.

[Rebl2]

27. You are

right. This virus may change many times. Hate to say it, but there may never be a vaccine for this if it keeps mutating. I hate that thought, but has been nagging me this week.

[Igel]

35. In which case there'll be no vaccine.

The hope for herd immunity working is the same hope that's driving research for the vaccine.

With the difference that if there is no vaccine, we just have to get used to fairly persistent recurrences of this bug.

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

48. Or there will be several vaccines.

Like the flu vaccines, we get the one the CDC selects, based on very scientific guesswork.

Even when they pick the "wrong" vaccine, it helps reduce the impact of the flu.

CV19 vaccine may work "a little" against CV19.1, CV19.2, etc.

[Roy Rolling]

9. By this theory

They should intentionally infect the entire population to achieve success.

[William Seger]

12. That's essentially what they're doing

[Ace Rothstein]

37. The same is likely going to happen here just on a smaller curve.

There is no way to keep the country locked down for possibly years while we develop a potential vaccine.

[hueymahl]

60. I'm afraid you are right

It is something our leaders don't really want to talk about yet. I suspect out of fear that people will revolt (and not just the astroturf revolts we have seen so far).

[HarlanPepper]

10. I can't believe they didn't consult with some of our epidemiologists in the forum

[Steelrolled]

57. Yep, it would be over by now with our expertise. /s

[Nasruddin]

11. Population density of Stockholm

> But Sweden’s chief epidemiologist has said “herd immunity” could be reached in Stockholm

The pop density of Stockholm (4800/km2) is comparable to other European cities, like Berlin.
It's about 1/2 of NYC: comparable to San Francisco in US.

As others have pointed out they have an extraordinarily high death rate so far.

[DrToast]

14. They've already withdrawn this claim

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/22/sweden-health-agency-withdraws-controversial-coronavirus-report/#122889e74349

[GeorgeGist]

21. +1

[gab13by13]

15. Trump has already gloated

about the US having a lower death rate than Sweden.

[OnlinePoker]

23. Only because Sweden is already doing exactly what Trump wants to do in the U.S. n/t

[BlueIdaho]

16. Sweden has twice the recorded cases as its neighbor Norway

and ten times the fatalities. the Norwegians closed their very long border with Sweden early on as Sweden decided to follow this lethal path.

[LudwigPastorius]

17. Meanwhile, Sweden's fatality rate is 12.06%...only behind the UK, Italy and France in Europe.

Hey, ya gotta break a few eggs to make an omelette. Amiright?

[Turbineguy]

19. Maybe they overestimated

their ability to successfully treat those who got sick.

[Igel]

36. Probably.

But it's not over until it's over.

The winner of the World Series isn't the team who wins game 1.

[C_U_L8R]

20. Trump is all for herd immunity... as long as he's the herd

Otherwise it just sounds like a nifty anus-randian plan to get more people sicker faster.

[OnlinePoker]

24. He's what comes out of the herd's ass. n/t

[Ford_Prefect]

25. Herd immunity only works when you have ONE form of disease...Not with over 35 mutations.

Last edited Thu Apr 23, 2020, 12:51 PM - Edit history (1)

It also depends on the herd having relatively uniform genetics. Modern Human genome is too complex and variable.

Herd immunity won't prevent reinfection with COVID-19 as we have already witnessed in China, New York, and elsewhere. They will be shocked when the 2nd wave hits. They are also likely under-counting due to the same mistakes made elsewhere regarding COVID-19 symptomatology.

I don't wish them the pain and suffering but they seem to be on a path towards losing 20-30% of their citizens.

[Igel]

38. Lots of assumptions there.

First is that the mutations are functionally different.

Second is that they're at antibodies binding sites.

Third is that small differences at binding sites are really important.

The herd doesn't have uniform genetics. That matters for death rate, but doesn't seem to matter much for infection rates.

There's at least one human mutation that seems to account for disproportionate share of the deaths. I forget if it's in an immune protein or the ACE2 receptor--the latter, I think, but don't hold me to it.

Then there are genetic differences in things like asthma response to usual treatment, so that if two people suffer from asthma one can easily be treated and the other is resistant to treatment.

There are genetic differences that lead to salt retention and are tied to elevated prevalence of hypertension.

Just as there are genetic differences in lactose tolerance, there are genetic differences in how one handles high starch diets, which is connected to weight gain.

Don't know where the ACE2 mutation originated (if it was ACE2). Or what's behind the resistance to standard asthma treatments. The others are local adaptations to either culture (starch) or environment (salt).

[hay rick]

28. More on this story:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/04/20/commentary/world-commentary/grim-truth-swedish-model/#.XqHCrWZKjBU

[AntiFascist]

29. I believe that test results from China and South Korea are showing...

that a large percentage of people who supposedly recovered (tested negative) after having the virus are again testing positive after a period of a few weeks.

[Igel]

40. Not large.

But some are testing positive again a week or two later. And are sometimes symptomatic in both cases.

[AntiFascist]

63. I thought I recalled reading it was 30%...

but according to a later report it is only 2.1%:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

Also this report seems to support the case for immunity:

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/south-korean-studies-suggest-antibodies-protect-covid-19/story?id=70312111

It pays to stay updated on these reports!

[moosewhisperer]

42. Fewer than 200

In South Korea, fewerthan 200 re-tested as positive. They are NOT shedding virus, according to culture tests. May be “reactivation” rather than reinfection.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN2241K2

[Sancho]

31. I'm not sure if this link will show...

Sweden is failing the population with a misguided strategy that will lead to excess deaths. They are nowhere close to 'herd immunity'​, despite claims

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/sweden-failing-population-misguided-strategy-lead-jason/?fbclid=IwAR3MygHanLOdQPYYUBuUMQ3MN0VEVYf2qwwQP0Vp3a7of9ztg9V2xX2K4HQ

...but it's from an MD researcher in Tampa - talking about the Sweden plan.

[Steelrolled]

39. I am one of the few non-experts on the wisdom of Sweden' approach

and so I won't say anything. But I can say that IF they turn out to be right, it would be a good time to be in the crow business, because much will have to be eaten.

[Igel]

41. No crow will be consumed.

If it works, there was some reason why it was the same thing we did or it was morally or practically inferior.

I keep hearing how Governor X is so much better than Governor Y, and the evidence is that Governor Y's death count would be so much higher if not for the cover up. And as for Governor Z, his state's death count will be yuge as soon as the effect from something-or-other kicks in.

[LisaL]

45. If what works?

Sweden is already at ~64,000 US equivalent deaths. In other words, if their population was the same as in US, they would have lost ~64,000 people.

[Steelrolled]

47. I think we still need to keep the crow on the ready

There were many claims that Sweden would be an apocalypse, and maybe it is still coming, but we don't see it yet.

You are right about all of the claims about the states and their governors.

Here are my thoughts...

NY is by far the worst state in terms of deaths per capita. Could we have avoided it? Cuomo and de Blasio were a little sluggish with their actions, but how much difference did a day or two make?

I think Cuomo would have had to do a lock down more than a week earlier. Even if he had the will to do it on his own (unlikely) I think it would have met very strong resistance, and he would have been viewed as a maniac. Along with that, we probably needed an international travel ban on Jan 1. Would that have flown (no pun)?

So were we destined for what we are experiencing? I kind of think so.

[marble falls]

50. This is a highly controversial in Europe and Anders Tegnell is highly controversial himself.

[mainer]

51. They're far from reaching herd immunity

According to Worldometer, they're only at around 1700 cases per million population. (The US is at 2600 and Spain is at 4560)

So unless they're vastly under-testing their population, they have a long, long way to go before they achieve an actual infection rate anywhere near the US or other European countries. Which means they have many, more deaths to come. And their death rate per million already exceeds the US.

[NickB79]

55. They're at the US equivalent of 65,000 dead

Winning?

[Hugin]

58. Based on the opinion of one person...

Articles like this don't help.

[Skittles]

61. could work in a country where 3/4 are not overweight and lack health insurance or fear the costs

in America? DISASTER.

[Marrah_Goodman]

62. They are steadily climbing up the list of deaths per million