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Mon May 4, 2020, 05:27 PM

Key Scientific Group Doubles Its Projected US Death Toll from Pandemic to 135,000

Source: Mediaite

The academic group that President Donald Trump and the White House coronavirus task force has frequently cited for official estimates of coronavirus cases and fatalities radically changed its numbers on Monday, nearly doubling its projected final death toll for the first wave of the Covid-19 outbreak to 135,000.

On Monday afternoon, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation issued a lengthy press release explaining that it was revising upward by nearly 100% its projection of roughly 74,000 from just one week earlier. The IMHE attributed the stark change to relaxed social distancing rules and increased mobility in many states where the Covid-19 spread has peaked but not declined measurably.

This news comes just hours after the New York Times reported that a private assessment inside the CDC warned that the rapid pullback of quarantine orders will boost the death toll to 3,000 a day by the beginning of June, a mark more than 50 percent higher that the current daily mortality rate. And the IMHE’s reversal arrived less than 24 hours after Trump very publicly backpedaled the virus’ impact in a Fox News town hall on Sunday night, in which he said “We’re going to lose anywhere from 75, 80 to 100,000 people.” For weeks, Trump touted the IMHE’s downwardly revised projection of 60,000 from 100,000 as evidence that his administration’s response was saving lives.

Read more: https://www.mediaite.com/news/key-scientific-group-doubles-its-projected-us-death-toll-from-pandemic-to-135000/

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Reply Key Scientific Group Doubles Its Projected US Death Toll from Pandemic to 135,000 (Original post)
SouthernCal_Dem May 2020 OP
Initech May 2020 #1
regnaD kciN May 2020 #5
SouthernCal_Dem May 2020 #12
NotHardly May 2020 #20
Stallion May 2020 #2
Initech May 2020 #6
Stallion May 2020 #9
RVN VET71 May 2020 #23
regnaD kciN May 2020 #3
SouthernCal_Dem May 2020 #4
bucolic_frolic May 2020 #7
Squinch May 2020 #11
Squinch May 2020 #8
Pobeka May 2020 #13
Squinch May 2020 #14
Pobeka May 2020 #15
Squinch May 2020 #16
turbinetree May 2020 #10
BigmanPigman May 2020 #17
SunSeeker May 2020 #19
cstanleytech May 2020 #18
DallasNE May 2020 #21
hatrack May 2020 #22
ProfessorGAC May 2020 #24

Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:30 PM

1. We're not getting out of this without 240K dead. Minimum.

Heckuva job, Trumpie.

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Response to Initech (Reply #1)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:38 PM

5. And, once again, this is because of the "re-open everything!!!" demands from conservatives...

It isn't just about official plans to re-open from red states. The IHME model relies on cellphone data showing that people are not isolating as much as they had been doing before the Astroturfed "popular uprisings" presenting the quarantine as intolerable government oppression. Unfortunately, it looks like a lot of people are about to learn the hard way.

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Response to Initech (Reply #1)

Mon May 4, 2020, 06:02 PM

12. Yup

I agree with that minimum.

Wouldn't be surprised if we reach half a million when all is said and done.

We're nearly at 70K and it's only the first week of May with the GOP states doing all they can to lift restrictions.

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Response to Initech (Reply #1)

Mon May 4, 2020, 06:39 PM

20. History and human stupidity repeat themselves

https://www.history.com/news/spanish-flu-second-wave-resurgence

When the Spanish flu first appeared in early March 1918, it had all the hallmarks of a seasonal flu, albeit a highly contagious and virulent strain. One of the first registered cases was Albert Gitchell, a U.S. Army cook at Camp Funston in Kansas, who was hospitalized with a 104-degree fever. The virus spread quickly through the Army installation, home to 54,000 troops. By the end of the month, 1,100 troops had been hospitalized and 38 had died after developing pneumonia.

From September through November of 1918, the death rate from the Spanish flu skyrocketed. In the United States alone, 195,000 Americans died from the Spanish flu in just the month of October. And unlike a normal seasonal flu, which mostly claims victims among the very young and very old, the second wave of the Spanish flu exhibited what’s called a “W curve”—high numbers of deaths among the young and old, but also a huge spike in the middle composed of otherwise healthy 25- to 35-year-olds in the prime of their life.

______________________
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/san-francisco-had-1918-flu-under-control-then-it-lifted-n1191141

But three weeks after that celebration of removing their masks, the city saw a dramatic resurgence. Officials at first rejected the idea of reopening the city and suggested residents could voluntarily wear face coverings.

But shortly after the New Year in 1919, the city was hit with 600 new cases in one day, prompting the Board of Supervisors to re-enact the mandatory mask ordinance. Protests against the mandate eventually led to the formation of the Anti-Mask League. The detractors eventually got their way when the order was lifted in February.

San Francisco’s ambivalence to quarantine measures ran counter to other U.S. cities, though. Navarro said Los Angeles, for instance, implemented strict social distancing and face coverings about a week before San Francisco did and its measures stayed in place for weeks longer.

Many cities often became complacent once they saw a dip in cases, and when a resurgence happens residents often question the public health guidance.

"They were flattening that curve; they just weren't realizing it," Navarro said. "A lot of people thought, ‘Well, what did we go through that for? It did have an impact, they just didn't know it."

As Dr. Anthony Fauci aid in March, 2020 "If it looks like you're overreacting, you're probably doing the right thing."

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:33 PM

2. Don't Make any Plans Until About 2022

you can forget about the NFL, NBA, MLB, NCAA sports and Summer vacations too

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Response to Stallion (Reply #2)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:48 PM

6. And that's assuming we still have anything left after this.

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Response to Initech (Reply #6)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:56 PM

9. ...Or Anybody has a Job

WTF Trump couldn't possibly be worse that Hillary

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Response to Stallion (Reply #9)

Tue May 5, 2020, 08:32 AM

23. Or there is anybody, period

But at least some states have joined together, formed a kind of pact to use very measured methods to "re-open" a little at a time so they can quickly pull back if it seems necessary. And meanwhile we have states like Georgia and South Dakota and Texas, etc., where the governors seem very willing to accept a certain amount of death and sickness. Those states will either prove what Dr. Fauci and other pro-life medical people . . .

(yes, I mean pro-life, but in the seriously adult way: people who actually view human life as too fucking valuable to throw in the ash can so some goddam corporation can get back in business again, so business as usual can resume, and yes, Abbott, Kemp, and Noem, that characterization is aimed smack at you and your ignorant psychopathic butts. At 75, I'll most likely precede your dank souls to Hell and I will ask, as soon as I get there, to be assigned to concoct and carry out your punishments for what you have done, you heartless bastards -- and you too, Christie!)

Sorry for that rant in the middle of my carefully measured response. Where was I? Oh, yeah, the rising death toll in those states will prove the warnings of genuine pro-lifers were accurate -- or maybe there will be no increase in death and identified cases of C19, maybe it will, in those Trump-blessed states, the plague will just go away, like a miracle.

We'll see.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:34 PM

3. The range they're now specifying is between 95,092 and 242,890...

Here's the link to their current status page.

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Response to regnaD kciN (Reply #3)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:35 PM

4. Thanks!

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:53 PM

7. Hey, we're starting to roll

Kept looking for holes in my assumptions based on 1918, population, mortality rate. Still not finding it. I really didn't want to be right about this.

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Response to bucolic_frolic (Reply #7)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:59 PM

11. But ya are, Blanch. Ya are.

(Useful quote from "Whatever Happened to Baby Jane" if you don't recognize it.)

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:55 PM

8. IHME.



donnie Bodybags chose them as his "go to" model early in the process. They consistently put out ridiculously low numbers.

Finally, now that Donnie Bodybags has used them to convince the stupid to open back up, and now that they have a movement that will make closing again more difficult, they suddenly quote a somewhat reasonable number.

Gosh. That doesn't make me wonder at all.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #8)

Mon May 4, 2020, 06:03 PM

13. OMG yes.

<rant on>

What a joke. They must be pooping bricks. I'd fire their sorry butts if I could. What really happened is they are just a laziest modellers on the planet. Any idiot could see the spike in deaths due to NY's adding all the probable covid deaths in a lump for a few days, which caused an artificial peak of deaths for the entire nation, which caused the laziest modellers on the planet's model to be fooled into thinking the peak was real and the downside would be quick. Real, hard working modeller's would have backed that effect out, but of course, that would have required critical thinking skills and, well, some hard work.

It was nothing short of irresponsible, if not immoral to allow the whitehouse to use their numbers to justify not sending equipment to states.

</rant on>

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Response to Pobeka (Reply #13)

Mon May 4, 2020, 06:05 PM

14. Also, apparently, they include no epidemiological information in their modeling.

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Response to Squinch (Reply #14)

Mon May 4, 2020, 06:11 PM

15. It's true. I looked at their documentation and source code.

I merely attempts to project a curve shape on to existing data. No attempt at making true epidemiolgical inferences.

Using random effects to explain differences in different localities. Random effects is another term for "I was to lazy to determine the reason for the differences". Lazy, lazy, irresponsible.

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Response to Pobeka (Reply #15)

Mon May 4, 2020, 06:13 PM

16. Whenever I have made fun of them, I have said that I am suspicious of

their motives. The answer I usually get back is that Bill Gates is one of their funders, so they must be legit.

I would be willing to bet $100 bucks that another funder has very close ties to the right wing.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Mon May 4, 2020, 05:58 PM

10. So Trump and his economic lackey inside the white house were putting in there "own"

algorithms into there data to fudge the numbers to there liking................because anyone put down whatever they want to get the result they want if there is no checks or balances ...........January 22, 2021 cannot get here fast enough........... ....

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Mon May 4, 2020, 06:24 PM

17. I use common sense and am staying inside.

I will outlive a lot of people and will proudly say, "I told you so" to the rest who stopped social distancing, went out without a mask since they value their "freedumb" and then finally watched their own loved ones die. When it personally affects them and their families they will get a "tough shit" from me! I'm staying inside for them as well as myself and they don't give a shit about me so fuck them.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #17)

Mon May 4, 2020, 06:33 PM

19. They definitely don't give a shit if we live or die. nt

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Mon May 4, 2020, 06:30 PM

18. I think that number is optimistic as to many Trump supporting nutjobs refuse to take this as

serous as they should and that is going to cause this to be worse.

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Mon May 4, 2020, 08:13 PM

21. We Will Be At 135,000 By July 4th. Then What? n/t

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Response to DallasNE (Reply #21)

Mon May 4, 2020, 08:58 PM

22. Blue Angels flyovers, of course!

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Response to SouthernCal_Dem (Original post)

Tue May 5, 2020, 08:42 AM

24. Fun With Numbers

For weeks what's been publicized has been the floor number. Per this chart, the floor is now 98,000.
This latest number is the median of the model. The ceiling of the model is 240,000.
So, they did not nearly double the estimate. They bumped up the floor and median roughly 50%. The ceiling went up nearly 2x.
This has been a consistent complaint of mine regarding their model. First, I don't trust their assumptions (and there's a lot of them). Second, their reported value has been inconsistent as to which value in the model is being reported.
Last week the median was around 93k. Now, it's 135k. They reported they went up to 73k. That was the floor.
So this week they publish the median, last they published the floor.
No wonder people are confused by these projections.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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