U.S. added 638,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate slides to 6.9%

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: CNBC

Employment growth was better than expected in October and the unemployment rate feel sharply even as the U.S. faces the challenge of surging coronavirus cases and the impact they could have on the nascent economic recovery.

The Labor Department reported Friday that nonfarm payrolls increased by 638,000 and the unemployment rate was at 6.9%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a payroll gain of 530,000 and an unemployment rate of 7.7% a touch lower than the September level of 7.9%.

The report comes as the U.S. this week broke the 100,000-a-day barrier that pushed a rise in both hospitalizations and the death rate.With Federal Reserve official stressing the link between the virus and economic growth, the U.S. faces challenging months ahead.

October's growth brings the total payroll gains since May to around 12 million, though that still leaves unfilled about 10 million positions lost in March and April.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/06/jobs-report-october-2020.html

---

It's Friday again and stay tuned for all the details from our DU economic analysts to slice and dice the BLS data!

Will update the OP as more comes in.

Original headline and article -

U.S. added 638,000 jobs in October, vs 530,000 expected

Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase by 530,000 in October, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.

ETA - it looks like someone was trying to shoe-horn in an under-7% UE rate for election week.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. Good morning. From the source:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 638,000 in October; unemployment rate declines to 6.9%

Economic News Release USDL-20-2033

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, November 6, 2020

Technical information:
Household data: [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- OCTOBER 2020


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. In October, notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction. Employment in government declined.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. Fornmore information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

In October, the unemployment rate declined by 1.0 percentage point to 6.9 percent, and the number of unemployed persons fell by 1.5 million to 11.1 million. Both measures have declined for 6 consecutive months but are nearly twice their February levels (3.5 percent and 5.8 million, respectively). (See table A-1. For more information about how the household survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic, see the box note at the end of this news release.)

Unemployment rates declined among all major worker groups in October. The rate was 6.7 percent for adult men, 6.5 percent for adult women, 13.9 percent for teenagers, 6.0 percent for Whites, 10.8 percent for Blacks, 7.6 percent for Asians, and 8.8 percent for Hispanics. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

{snip}

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.8 hours in October. In manufacturing, the workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 40.5 hours, and overtime rose by 0.2 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up by 4,000 from +1,489,000 to +1,493,000, and the change for September was revised up by 11,000 from +661,000 to +672,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined was 15,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________
The Employment Situation for November is scheduled to be released on Friday, December 4, 2020, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

{snip}

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. TGIF!

[Freethinker65]

3. Added? I returned to my part time retail job in October after being furloughed for 6 months

Is that considered an "added" job? With pandemic cases soaring again, another furlough may be in my future.

We have actually added two NEW seasonal employees this November. Last year by this time we had added at least 6 seasonal employees.

[machoneman]

4. Great news! Too late for Trumpyboy to get any credit even thoug he'll claim it. I do hope....

...things start picking up even more rapidly to give Joe and Kamala abig boost even before they kick fatass out of the WH.

[yaesu]

6. and the Earth is flat too, you betcha nt

[mountain grammy]

7. The fact that there's any economy left at all

is a tribute to what was built by President Obama..

[BumRushDaShow]

8. Yup.

[mountain grammy]

11. of course I should add and

Vice President, now President elect, Joe Biden.

[BumRushDaShow]

13. This Philly girl is happy as a clam about that!!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. Links to earlier reports:

Last edited Fri Dec 4, 2020, 01:58 PM - Edit history (1)

Good afternoon, all.

Wed Nov 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Oct 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 30, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Sep 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Aug 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Aug 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thu Jul 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jun 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri May 8, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, April 3, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wednesday, March 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, February 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thursday, January 9, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Updated from this post of Friday, December 6, 2019: Good morning. Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 365,000 from September to October, on a seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2020:

September jobs report: US economy gains 661,000 payrolls, unemployment rate ticks down to 7.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 749,000 from August to September on seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2020:

Economy adds 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 428,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 1.8 million in July; unemployment rate falls to 10.2%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 167,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 2,369,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2020:

Unemployment rate drops to 13 percent, as the economy began to lose jobs at a slower pace

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 2,760,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2020:

Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment falls by 701,000 in March; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2020:

The U.S. labor market showed strength in February, adding 273,000 jobs

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2020:

U.S. adds 183,000 private-sector jobs in February, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2020:

The economy added 225,000 jobs in January, showing continued strength

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2020:

ADP says 291,000 private-sector jobs created in January, largest gain in 4 years

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2019:

Economy adds 145,000 jobs in December as unemployment rate remains at 3.5 percent

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2019:

U.S. private sector adds the most jobs in eight months

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2019:

Labor market remained strong in November as U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2019:

U.S. private sector job growth slows down sharply in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2019:

U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October as GM strike displaced workers; jobless rate ticks up

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 125,000 Jobs in October

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2019:

U.S. economy added just 136,000 jobs in September, in fresh sign economy is cooling

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 135,000 Jobs in September

[progree]

10. Links to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs. And some key numbers

Everyone of these data series comes with a table and graph.

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

2019: 269 1 147 210 85 182 194 207 208 185 261 184
2020: 214 251 -1373 -20787 2725 4781 1761 1493 672 638
Feb and March of 2020 are Corrected. September and October are Preliminary. In thousands

   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

2019: -198 239 -125 -45 148 304 198 549 403 246 -8 267
2020: -89 45 -2987 -22369 3839 4940 1350 3756 275 2243
Jan and Feb of each year are affected by changes in population controls. In thousands

   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)
Monthly change in thousands, 1st 10 months:
2020: 50 -60 -1633 -6432 11746 1705 -62 968 -695 724
Total count in thousands, 1st 10 months:
2020: 164606 164546 162913 156481 158227 159932 159870 160838 160143 160867
October is down 3.679 million from February -- lots of people are discouraged from looking because of poor prospects and/or concerns over coronavirus
January and February data affected by changes in population controls.

# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000
2020: 5892 5787 7140 23078 20985 17750 16338 13550 12580 11061 (in thousands)
(but continuing claims for unemployment insurance IN ALL PROGRAMS for the week ending October 17 was 21509 thousand, it's higher because, because, because it's not lower and its not the same, that's why . The continuing claims in all programs statistic lags by about 2 1/2 weeks, the above is the latest as of Friday 11/6. )

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending October 17 was 21,508,662, a decrease of 1,152,854 from the previous week. There were 1,444,923 persons claiming benefits in all programs in the comparable
week in 2019.

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000

# Black unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006
First 10 months of 2020: 6.0 5.8 6.7 16.7 16.8 15.4 14.6 13.0 12.1 10.8   Trump: "what have you got to lose?"

# Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009
First 10 months of 2020: 4.3 4.4 6.0 18.9 17.6 14.5 12.9 10.5 10.3 8.8

# White unemployment rate https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003
First 10 months of 2020: 3.1 3.1 4.0 14.2 12.4 10.1 9.2 7.3 7.0 6.0

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+.
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062


ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

[BumRushDaShow]

12. Good happy happy morning and TGIF

I know you had to do a major shifting of gears but you'll be back to the other statistically rich event when this project is done.

[progree]

14. Yes, a very happy morning to you too. Just heard the news on the "other statistically rich event"

Georgia a blue state?

And Pennsylvania finally (ahem) coming through

Nice to see we got the infamous 2016 "trifecta" of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania back to blue.

The other statistically rich event (besides the jobs report and the election), unfortunately, is Covid19. Minnesota is now #10 in highest daily new cases per capita, 7 day moving average (our U.S. neighbors are #1, #2, #3, and #5 -- NoDak, SoDak, Wisconsin, and Iowa).

I was hoping we (in Minnesota) were doing something right, as until about a week ago or maybe 2 weeks ago we had long ranked #18 to #20, while NoDak, SoDak, and Wisconsin were #1, #2, and #3 or #4. (Iowa's ranking ranged from about #5 to #8). But nope, we're getting infected now almost as badly as our neighbors.

[BumRushDaShow]

15. See? Lots of balls in the air

COVID-19 is going to be a nightmare for the next couple years.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

16. Links to charts and graphs from the BLS Twitter account:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 638,000 in October; unemployment rate declines to 6.9% http://go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdata

Link to tweet

See our interactive graphics on today’s #JobsReport http://go.usa.gov/cn5B4 #BLSdata #DataViz

Link to tweet

Understanding BLS Unemployment Statistics

#JobsReport #BLSdata

Link to tweet

[mahatmakanejeeves]

17. Additional links:

It used to be that you could get free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal. by going in through TWSJ.'s Twitter account or the Twitter accounts of the authors:

How to get around the paywall to read articles in The Wall Street Journal.:

For free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal., trying going in through the authors' Twitter feeds:

This trick doesn't seem to work anymore, but you might be able to get in if they've slipped up. Here are those accounts:

* * * * *

The Wall Street Journal.: @WSJ
https://twitter.com/wsj

Wall Street Journal

Breaking news and features from the WSJ.

* * * * *

Ben Leubsdorf: @BenLeubsdorf
https://twitter.com/BenLeubsdorf

I cover the economy at @WSJ. @ConMonitorNews, @AP, @the_herald alum. DC native. Hyperactive news omnivore. Also I like burritos. [e-mail]

* * * * *

Josh Zumbrun: ?@JoshZumbrun
https://twitter.com/JoshZumbrun

National economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. Covering the world's usual state of greed and disorder, confusion and apathy. [e-mail]

* * * * *

Nick Timiraos: @NickTimiraos
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos

National economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal

Please look at the tweets, as Nick Timiraos likes to slice and dice the data every which way. Also, link to the "11 charts " article from his Twitter feed to get past TWSJ.'s paywall.

* * * * *

Jeffrey Sparshott: @jeffsparshott
https://twitter.com/jeffsparshott

[e-mail]
* * * * *

Paul Vigna: @paulvigna
https://twitter.com/paulvigna

Markets, bitcoin, and the zombie apocalypse.

* * * * *

Eric Morath: @EricMorath
https://twitter.com/EricMorath

[e-mail]

I'm a Wall Street Journal economy reporter, dad, husband and Spartan for life. [e-mail]

Washington DC

blogs.wsj.com/economics/

* * * * *

Sarah Chaney: ?@sechaney
https://twitter.com/sechaney

Economy Reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Tar Heel. [e-mail]

* * * * *