Economy picked up 266,000 jobs in April, fewer than expected as economy tries to rebound

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Washington Post

The U.S. economy added just 266,000 jobs in April, a disappointing month of growth that fell well below economists’ estimates for more robust month of recovery as vaccine distribution increases and caseloads fall around the country.
The unemployment rate remained relatively unchanged at around 6 percent, although economists caution the number is misleadingly low, given how many people have dropped out of the labor force in the last year, and are thus not counted as unemployed.

Hiring has accelerated so quickly, in fact, that some businesses have complained to the White House and lawmakers that they are having a hard time recruiting workers, particularly for low-wage, hourly jobs.
The tension spilled into public on Thursday, when Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) blamed the stimulus package passed by the White House and Congress in March for acting as an incentive for people to not return to work. Biden administration officials have countered that the $1.9 trillion stimulus package provided vital assistance to millions of Americans and has only helped the economy grow.

The U.S. economy added a robust 916,000 jobs in March, edging the unemployment rate down to 6 percent. The labor market has improved since the coronavirus pandemic ravaged numerous industries last year, but it remains millions of jobs short of where it was before the outbreak began in early 2020. The April jobs report will give further clues as to whether the hiring trend has continued or is slowing in any way. It could also show whether companies are paying higher wages than in recent months.

Many aspects of the recovery have been bumpy. Global supply chains still have not recovered. Many workers still have not returned to their offices, and the travel industry remains heavily affected. But for companies that are trying to ramp up, there are other pressures. A number of firms, including in the construction and restaurant industries, have complained to the White House about their inability to find enough workers for new positions.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/05/07/april-jobs-report-economy-unemployment/

---

It's that Friday of the month again so stay tuned for DU's economic analysts to weigh in with the deep dives!

TGIF!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. Good morning. From the source:

This is much lower than expected. I heard on KYW this morning that a million new jobs were expected.

Payroll employment rises by 266,000 in April; unemployment rate changes little at 6.1%

Economic News Release USDL-21-0816

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, May 7, 2021

Technical information:
Household data: [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- APRIL 2021


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 266,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by employment declines in temporary help services and in couriers and messengers.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

Both the unemployment rate, at 6.1 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 9.8 million, were little changed in April. These measures are down considerably from their recent highs in April 2020 but remain well above their levels prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively, in February 2020). (See table A-1. See the box note at the end of this news release for more information about how the household survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic.)

{snip}

Among the unemployed, the number of persons on temporary layoff, at 2.1 million, changed little in April. This measure is down considerably from the recent high of 18.0 million in April 2020 but is 1.4 million higher than in February 2020. The number of permanent job losers, at 3.5 million, was also little changed over the month but is 2.2 million higher than in February 2020. (See table A-11.)

{snip}

The labor force participation rate was little changed at 61.7 percent in April and is 1.6 percentage points lower than in February 2020. The employment-population ratio was also little changed in April at 57.9 percent but is up by 0.5 percentage point since December 2020. However, this measure is 3.2 percentage points below its February 2020 level. (See table A-1.)

{snip}

Household Survey Supplemental Data

In April, 18.3 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 21.0 percent in the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the last 4 weeks specifically because of the pandemic.

In April, 9.4 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic--that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the last 4 weeks due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 11.4 million in the previous month. Among those who reported in April that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 9.3 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, little changed from the previous month.

{snip}

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 266,000 in April, following increases of 770,000 in March and 536,000 in February. In April, nonfarm employment is down by 8.2 million, or 5.4 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. In April, notable job gains in leisure and hospitality, other services, and local government education were partially offset by losses in temporary help services and in couriers and messengers. (See table B-1. See the box note at the end of this news release for more information about how the establishment survey and its measures were affected by the coronavirus pandemic.)

{snip}

In April, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 21 cents to $30.17, following a decline of 4 cents in the prior month. In April, average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 20 cents to $25.45. The data for April suggest that the rising demand for labor associated with the recovery from the pandemic may have put upward pressure on wages. Since average hourly earnings vary widely across industries, the large employment fluctuations since February 2020 complicate the analysis of recent trends in average hourly earnings. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

{snip}

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised up by 68,000, from +468,000 to +536,000, and the change for March was revised down by 146,000, from +916,000 to +770,000. With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 78,000 lower than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________
The Employment Situation for May is scheduled to be released on Friday, June 4, 2021, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. Links to earlier reports:

Last edited Fri May 7, 2021, 10:46 AM - Edit history (1)

Good morning, all.

Wed May 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Apr 2, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Mar 31, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Mar 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Mar 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Feb 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Feb 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jan 8, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jan 6, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Dec 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Dec 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Nov 6, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Nov 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Oct 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 30, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Sep 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Sep 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Aug 7, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Aug 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Thu Jul 2, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jun 5, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Fri May 8, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Friday, April 3, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Wednesday, March 4, 2020: Links to earlier reports:

Updated from this post of Friday, December 6, 2019: Good morning. Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2021:

Private-sector employment increased by 742,000 from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2021:

The U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March as recovery gains steam again

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2021:

Private employers added back 517,000 jobs in March, missing expectations: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2021:

The economy added 379,000 jobs in February

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2021:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 117,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2021:

Unemployment rate falls to 6.3% in January; payroll employment changes little (+49,000)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2021:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 174,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2020:

The economy lost 140,000 jobs in December

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 123,000 from November to December, seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2020:

Job Growth Slows Sharply As Pandemic Takes Toll On Economy

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 307,000 from October to November, on a seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2020:

U.S. added 638,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate slides to 6.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 365,000 from September to October, on a seasonally adjusted

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2020:

September jobs report: US economy gains 661,000 payrolls, unemployment rate ticks down to 7.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 749,000 from August to September on seasonally adjusted basis

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2020:

Economy adds 1.4 million jobs in August, and the unemployment rate fell below 10 percent

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 428,000 from July to August, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 1.8 million in July; unemployment rate falls to 10.2%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2020:

Private-sector employment increased by 167,000 from June to July, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment rises by 4.8 million in June; unemployment rate falls to 11.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 2,369,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2020:

Unemployment rate drops to 13 percent, as the economy began to lose jobs at a slower pace

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 2,760,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2020:

Jobless rate soared to 14.7% in April as U.S. shed 20.5 million jobs amid coronavirus pandemic

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2020:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Decreased by 20,236,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2020:

Nonfarm payroll employment falls by 701,000 in March; unemployment rate rises to 4.4%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2020:

Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis

[BumRushDaShow]

5. We'll have to see if and how this gets revised in the next couple months...

I know there is a huge sector of the entertainment industry - theme parks, anything in an arena, stadium, or theater (including for sports, movies, plays, concerts, musicals, live performances) are only now trickling back to opening, with limited capacity. Plus the cruise industry, probably representing a subset of employment (and that could also include the smaller riverboats) are venues that have generally not yet resumed operations, and would have all sorts of support and entertainment staff - particularly on the larger ships. And pre-pandemic, we were talking hundreds of thousands of positions.

So it is going to take some time.

[JohnSJ]

3. watch republicans use this to say they do not need to extend unemployment benefits saying that

people are not working because of unemployment.

What isn't factored in is the very real possibility of errors in these numbers. A year ago I believe we lost 20 million jobs. There are a lot of places that still are not fully opened.

Worse, some of those jobs may never come back because the businesses associated with them are gone, which is why it is imperative that the infrastructure bill pass, to bring these job back.

It also highlights how wrong the economists have been

[George II]

12. I already saw an interview on CNN saying pretty much what you're saying. But I'm sure May....

....will be much better, and then June, with all the students getting out of school, will be even better.

[JohnSJ]

17. There are so many variables involved George. Just the fact that a lot of areas are still not fully

opened, and some are concerned because still a lot of people haven’t been vaccinated

Another factor is this is one report, and we really need to see several months to see if there is a trend

It also needs to be pointed out that jobs were added

[George II]

19. That's what I pointed out elsewhere - it's only a 4-week period. There could have been a spike....

....at the end of March that would have taken away from early April. Who knows? May might be spectacular.

That's why I like "moving averages" better - they account for the inconsistency of numbers from week to week or month to month.

[JohnSJ]

20. +++

[Midnight Writer]

15. Done and done. First thing I saw when I turned on CNBC this morning.

[JohnSJ]

18. There was some job growth, and things don't switch immediately. It takes a little time

[drray23]

27. Yes I agree. Another factor may be that some businesses are changing the way they operate

Many found they could work well remotely and hence, ditched the expensive commercial real estate for their office space. I think this will lead to a reshuffling or loss of jobs. for example, besides the real estate sector, places which caters to the lunch crowd of workers or any other business related to offices ( janitorial services, delivery services, etc...)

[JohnSJ]

4. Why anyone would think the economy would turn on a dime is beyond me

[IronLionZion]

6. These are still good numbers

and will only increase in the next few months as more stuff opens and people go back to work.

For many restaurants/bars the former workers have been looking for better jobs in other fields that will have better stability and benefits. Not everyone wants to deal with maskhole customers. It's probably similar with many retail or event venue jobs or even some parts of travel like cruise ships.

[BumRushDaShow]

10. I had heard a business report last night

where at least one of the cruise lines indicated that it takes about 90 days for them to get a ship up and running. So barring some major new outbreak that stifles/delays some of the reopenings, I'm thinking by sometime this fall, that whole industry will start churning into action.

I recall a few years ago watching some fascinating video on Youtube that actually followed a long the crew and staff on a cruise ship and how they prepared the ship for passengers (including dry runs, etc). There are a lot of these videos out there nowadays and I can't find the couple I originally looked at but this example shows some of what goes on just with a "turnaround day" for one ship (during the time between now-departed cruise passengers and eventual incoming new ones) -

Of course as we found out early on in the pandemic in 2020, these ships were literal breeding grounds for COVID-19 and became super-spreader venues.

[George II]

13. Norwegian Line, the 3rd biggest, says they'll pull out of Florida if they can't demand that 100%....

....of their customers are vaccinated.

The new Florida law prohibits that requirement.

[BumRushDaShow]

16. Oh my.

After what happened to all of them last year, one can see why.

It will be interesting to see if they make good on that promise and where they might dock. Am guessing the next closest Norwegian cruise dock in a non-GOP slimed state, is Virginia (Norfolk/Portsmouth area).

[Garion_55]

7. very disappointing

the stimulus should have added more. i think that was more about people just hanging on for their lives more than expanding growth.

we needed to be adding a certain amount of jobs per month quickly just to get back to where we were a year ago. this aint it.

and as someone struggling to find a job right now its not giving me a whole lot of hope

[BumRushDaShow]

11. The stimulus ("American Rescue Plan") wasn't signed until March 11.

So whatever would initially get disbursed (not counting actual checks to individuals which could start happening right away) didn't start happening full bore until late March and definitely into last month, and is still ongoing as the states have been setting up their systems to handle the provisions of the funding and those industries who were impacted, have begun filing their applications... And I think there is a mid-month cutoff time for when they compile those UE surveys.

I expect the May UE might be very different.

[Yavin4]

8. This is actually good news overall.

There is job growth, but not over heated job growth which was expected. Now, there will be less pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates which is also why the markets are up this morning.

[George II]

9. It's sad that we measure the economy and jobs outlook in short periods of time and some...

...overlook the long term trend.

Who knows, maybe there was a huge spike the last week in March and another one first week of May? Those six weeks could have been VERY good, but the four in the middle just average.

That's the way companies judge their shipments, month to month. Places I worked for in the past would increase overtime the last week of a month so they can "get the month's shipments up". They totally ignore the effect of doubling shipments the last week of a month on the shipments the first week of the following month.

The end of a quarter was even worse.

[PSPS]

14. Despite the extreme pimping the media is doing for their advertisers, customers are still leery.

Hardly a day goes by without breathless stories about "the economy is opening up!!1111!!!. Everyone is going out to restaurants!!111!!! Now, here's a word from our sponsor!!111!!!"

1. Most people are still staying away because, um, we're still having virus outbreaks. There is still a pandemic.

2. Some changes adopted in the past 15 months will be permanent. Movie theaters and malls are over. Online ordering and delivery is here to stay.

3. Those complaining "I can't find anyone to work" don't know how to run their business in this new normal. Many people who were laid off and left to fend for themselves instead of getting financial assistance have already found other better-paying jobs like at Amazon, etc. They're not going to go back to a slave's job somewhere.

It's a demand-driven economy. Businesses without customers aren't hiring.

[BumRushDaShow]

21. In other words

(using the oft-overused but obviously true "MBA" term in this case) - they have to learn to be "nimble".

We saw over the past year where some restaurants (and even bars) figured out that they could "reopen" for "take-out"/delivery. That kept cooks cooking and some service staff around to package it up and give to the customer (either "in person" at the place or via delivery direct to the customer's residence).

I would disagree with the mall model at the moment. Many of them have been open but at reduced capacity, and I think there is still a subset of people who like to go go go no matter what and WANT to go to places like a mall (I am not one of them and can't remember the last time I was in one - well maybe in 2015 when I was looking for a mattress and went to one of the local anchor department stores in a mall not far from me that sold mattresses... and that way I could see them).

However I would agree that the mall model was already going through some major downturns even pre-pandemic, and some were "reinventing themselves" to stave off the inevitable.

[TomCADem]

22. Not Sure Why It Was Expected To Be Lower. Vaccination Is Still in Process.

In other words, if the economy hit the numbers the economists were predicting, then that would mean that people were widely ignoring CDC guidance to remain vigilant against the disease.

Personally, even though I was just fully vaccinated, I still have yet to eat at a restaurant in person, and do not plan to do so until about July when I expect that a majority of folks in California will be fully vaccinated. Now, if I was in a State where infection rates are still over 5 percent, I would be even more reluctant.

This is what I did not understand about the projections is how did it square with health recommendations?

[BumRushDaShow]

23. I just saw a blip where Biden is supposed to address (happening right now)

But I posted up thread what I think is part of the issue - it's going to take time for the "system" to ratchet up - https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142739829#post11

This sortof reminds me about what happened after 9/11 when DOT took every single (passenger) aircraft out of the air - literally for 4 days. Complete "ground stop". Planes and helicopters were ordered to land at the closest available (and capable) airport (and that even meant some people were stuck in places like Canada who offered to take U.S. planes coming from overseas and elsewhere near the border).

Once the ground stop was lifted, there was quite a bit of logistics that had to happen to get planes up again and back to their "home" locations so they could make room for other planes that needed to be where those just-departed planes were sitting.

So in a way, the same things need to happen here, but obviously with a lot of changes to account for the fact that the pandemic hasn't suddenly gone away.

[OneCrazyDiamond]

24. Correct me if I am wrong, but

if you are hard time recruiting workers, particularly for low-wage, hourly jobs, under capitalism the answer would be offer more wages until the role gets filled?

[BumRushDaShow]

25. They seemed to have stop teaching that

in the business schools because the corporate-owned media would be counted on to pick up the RW talking points that ignored that principle, and defaulted to calling those potential employees lazy "Welfare Queens".

Here we are 45 years after Raygun poisoned the well with that one and the latest dog whistle now being applied is - "easier to stay home and collect unemployment benefits".

[OneCrazyDiamond]

26. They sure don't teach a lot these days, and it ain't the teacher's fault. n/t

[mahatmakanejeeves]

28. BLS Report: Unemployment rate for the foreign born increases to 9.2% in 2020

Unemployment rate for the foreign born increases to 9.2% in 2020

Economic News Release USDL-21-0905

Labor Force Characteristics of Foreign-born Workers Summary
For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Technical information: [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


FOREIGN-BORN WORKERS: LABOR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS -- 2020


The unemployment rate for foreign-born persons in the United States was 9.2 percent in 2020, up sharply from 3.1 percent in 2019, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The jobless rate of native-born persons also increased sharply; it was 7.8 percent in 2020, up from 3.8 percent in 2019. The marked increases in these measures reflect the effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Data on nativity are collected as part of the Current Population Survey (CPS), a monthly sample survey of approximately 60,000 households. The foreign born are persons who reside in the United States but who were not U.S. citizens at birth. Specifically, they were born outside the United States (or one of its outlying areas such as Puerto Rico or Guam), and neither parent was a U.S. citizen. The foreign born include legally-admitted immigrants, refugees, temporary residents such as students and temporary workers, and undocumented immigrants. However, the survey does not separately identify persons in these categories. For further information about the survey, see the Technical Note in this news release.

Highlights from the 2020 data:

{snip}

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

29. TED: The Economics Daily. U-3 was 6.1 percent, U-6 was 10.4 percent, in April 2021

TED: The Economics Daily

U-3 was 6.1 percent, U-6 was 10.4 percent, in April 2021

MAY 12, 2021

The official unemployment rate, also called U-3, was 6.1 percent in April 2021. The April 2021 rate was little changed from the previous month's rate of 6.0 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in both January and February 2020. It rose to 4.4 percent in March and reached 14.8 percent in April of last year. It has generally trended down since then.

{snip interactive chart}

The April unemployment rate of 6.1 percent was calculated from the 9.8 million unemployed people among the 161.0 million people in the labor force, which is the sum of employed and unemployed people. People were counted as unemployed if they were not employed during the week that included April 12th, had actively sought work during the preceding 4 weeks or were waiting to be recalled from a temporary layoff, and could have started a job if they had received an offer.

BLS publishes six "alternative measures of labor underutilization," known as U-1 through U-6, in each month's Employment Situation news release. As mentioned above, the U-3 rate is the total number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force. U-1 and U-2 are more narrowly defined and are always lower than the official unemployment rate, while U-4, U-5, and U-6 are more broadly defined and always higher.

The U-1 rate, which includes only people who were unemployed for 15 weeks or longer was 3.3 percent in April 2021. The U-2 rate, which includes only unemployed people who lost their jobs or completed temporary jobs, was 4.0 percent.

The most broadly defined rate, U-6, includes unemployed people, plus people who are "marginally attached" to the labor force, plus people who work part time for economic reasons. The marginally attached are neither working nor looking for work but want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. People who work part time for economic reasons are those that would have preferred full-time employment, but were working part time because their hours had been cut or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

The U-6 rate was 10.4 percent in April 2021. This was less than half what it was a year earlier when it was 22.9 percent, which was the highest level recorded since the measure was introduced in 1994.

{snip}

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.