House Democrats' 2020 election autopsy: Bad polling hurt and GOP attacks worked

[brooklynite]

Source: Washington Post

For the second time in four years, Rep. Sean Maloney (D-N.Y.) drew one of the toughest assignments: investigating what went wrong in a disappointing election.

...snip...

The 52-page PowerPoint report, which Maloney presented to the caucus during a Tuesday evening call, splits the difference on the key question of whether Democrats just had bad polling or a bad agenda that turned away voters.

Maloney laid out how Democrats simply underestimated the number of hardcore Trump voters and, with more Trump voters in the voting booths, the Republican attacks against the “defund the police” movement proved more potent than Democrats ever anticipated.

“The lies and distortions about defund and socialism carried a punch, but the Republicans think it got them over a 10-foot wall, when Trump’s turnout gave them a seven-foot ladder,” Maloney said in 45-minute interview, exclusively outlining what he calls the “Deep Dive” into the election.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/democrats-2020-autopsy-midterms/2021/05/18/6114af82-b80d-11eb-a5fe-bb49dc89a248_story.html

[Lonestarblue]

1. I agree that the whole "defund the police" phrase hurt Democrats.

I still question whether it was bad polling or Republican cheating in areas like South Carolina where Lindsey Graham won in double digits in spite of polls showing a near tie. Are polls really that bad?

[brooklynite]

2. The simplest explanation is: Pro-Trump voters refused to participate in polls by the "fake media"

[DBoon]

5. there are no "shy" trump voters

only belligerently uncooperative ones

[Beartracks]

4. Messaging matters. Word choice matters. n/t

[not fooled]

6. Yeah, "Defund the Police" shows

that simplistic propaganda works on the susceptible, and that most people are too unintelligent to think beyond said propaganda.

Which is why this country is the way it is. And on the brink of falling into the authoritarian abyss, if Dems can't stop the pukes from turning this country full fascist.

[certainot]

10. dems have to finally figure out it doesn't matter what we say as long as we ignore radio

a few protestors chanted "defund" and that's what the think tanks got a few hundred assholes on 1500 radio stations to label all the BLM protestors and by extension the socialist communist marxist democrats with. that went on for months!

protestors could have chanted reform the police, and they did chant stop killing us etc, but the same ignorant racist motherfuckers who get to howl coordinated lies all day for the heritage foundation and the kremlin reach 50 mil a week for as long as it takes.

and how many protestors were students going to the 87+ universities that support those same stations by broadcasting sports on them?!

ignoring the republican talk radio monopoly and strategizing as if democrats just need to fix a messaging problem is the biggest political mistake in history and democrats keep doing it every year

[Tumbulu]

16. That they do, and I cannot for the life of me

Figure out why this largest issue of them all keeps being ignored.

Bizarre !!!!

[everyonematters]

3. The frustrating thing about this issue is that most funding for police is local.

People were voting on this issue when their police departments were in no danger of being defunded.

[SmittyWerben]

7. "Don't Defund the Police" fit on a bumper sticker

Explaining what the very complicated theoretical idea behind "defund the police" does not. That single phrase killed us. The reality of who funds what has nothing to do with perception, and the perception of dems was that we want to get rid of police during a time of civil unrest. Self inflicted wounds. Seems to be something we do about every 4 years. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and all that.

[brush]

8. Agreed. "Defund the police" has to be the worse slogan ever.

It was a gift to the GOP.

[onetexan]

22. +1 -K&R

[summer_in_TX]

9. That and "End Ice."

Not only will the law enforcement officers themselves fight like hell against change, add in their parents, siblings, spouses, and children. Mix in extended family, friends, etc.

Systemic change can't start by talking about "ending." Heck, I'd fight change like that if my livelihood and career were at stake.

How do we get bogged down with these insanely stupid calls that are so guaranteed to backfire against us?

[Historic NY]

11. In other words Democrats better become vicious attack dogs now instead of milktoast...

well I don't know, I don't want to offend.... They need to answer every attack from McCarthy and McConnell and the others in a vicious manner....

[ColinC]

12. So what of the non existant door knockers we rely on every cycle?

The GOP had people knocking doors, we didn't. I honestly think that most of what happened can be attributed to COVID.

[Botany]

13. The polling wasn't bad. Its the voting machines and the gerrymandering.

Trump lost was because Biden's margin of victory was so big it overcame the GOP's "fudge factor."

Botany =

[OneCrazyDiamond]

19. I agree.

Gerrymandering is why we lost seats in the house.

[Botany]

20. In 2020 the polling was strong blue right up to the election and then it was way off but ...

.... less then a month later it went right back to the earlier strong blue lean. McConnel's win in KY,
Graham's win in S.C., and Collins' win in ME were very curious.

Gerrymandering

Jim Jordan's District

[bucolic_frolic]

14. I agree with it

Republican turnout - mostly for Trump but also for Biden - was boffo.

Good that they ID'd an issue that sunk us. In 2016 it was same-sex bathrooms, imo.

We have to pay far more attention to the social culture wars and anticipate HOW they will be perceived by the public, WHAT spin GQP will put on them and us, and how we turn that against them, and dodge fallout ourselves.

I say drill the GOP with insurrectionist fever.

[reACTIONary]

15. K&R

[Deminpenn]

17. Dems underestimated the Trump cultist turnout

Last edited Wed May 19, 2021, 02:10 PM - Edit history (1)

I didn't think Trump could turn out, or had, many more hardcore supporters, but he got more of them out. These voters only come out when Trump himself is on the ballot. You don't need any more proof than the GA senate run-offs, a mere 2 months after the Nov election, R turnout fell off enough for Ossoff and Warnock to win.

Dems should not base future strategy on the "one-offness" of Trump cult voters.

[brooklynite]

18. Not quite...

Republicans did well in States where Trump LOST.

[Deminpenn]

21. There were plenty of never-Trumper Rs who came out, didn't vote

for Trump, but voted R down ballot. But the cultist turnout was a big as well.