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Thu May 27, 2021, 03:32 PM

Yellen says economic recovery likely to be 'bumpy'

Source: AP

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER

WASHINGTON (AP) — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says that the economic recovery is going to be “bumpy” with high inflation readings likely to last through the end of this year.

But Yellen insisted that the inflation pressures will be temporary and if they do threaten to become embedded in the economy, the government has the tools to address that threat.

In testimony before a House Appropriations subcommittee Thursday, Yellen was asked about a big jump in prices reported last week, which showed consumer price index rising by 4.2% over the past year, the largest 12-month gain since 2008.

Yellen said that the April price increase was the result of a number of special factors related to the economy opening back up. She said as she has in the past that the price jump would be temporary but she indicated it would be more than a one-time gain.



FILE - In this May 7, 2021 file photo, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington. Yellen says that the economic recovery is going to be “bumpy” with high inflation readings likely to last through the end of this year. But Yellen maintained Thursday, May 27, that the inflation pressures will be temporary and if they do threaten to become embedded in the economy, the government has the tools to address that threat. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)


Read more: https://apnews.com/article/health-coronavirus-pandemic-government-and-politics-business-b31b28a7378f08118676a2e38eca5888

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Reply Yellen says economic recovery likely to be 'bumpy' (Original post)
Omaha Steve May 2021 OP
GB_RN May 2021 #1
progree May 2021 #2
GB_RN May 2021 #3
progree May 2021 #4

Response to Omaha Steve (Original post)

Thu May 27, 2021, 07:15 PM

1. You Can't Compare Prices

To last year month-to-month. 2019 is an apt comparison, but not April, 2020 to April, 2021.

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Response to Omaha Steve (Original post)

Thu May 27, 2021, 09:49 PM

2. Headlines say April CPI is up 4.2% vs. year ago, but is up 2.6% vs. 14 months ago, annualized

Monthly CPI changes (percentage points) -- the CPI peaked in February 2020, then fell a percentage point during the next 2 months, so yes, April 2020 is a depressed base to compare with

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0&output_view=pct_1mth
2020: 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
2021: 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8

Actual CPI index numbers, monthly
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
2020: 258.687 258.824 257.989 256.192 255.942 257.282 258.604 259.511 260.149 260.462 260.927 261.560
2021: 262.231 263.161 264.793 266.832

April'21 over April'20 = 266.832 / 256.192 => +4.15% (12 months)
April'21 over Feb '20 = 266.832 / 258.824 => +3.09% (14 months)
Annualizing the 3.09%: 3.09% * 12/14 = 2.65%

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Response to progree (Reply #2)

Fri May 28, 2021, 02:27 AM

3. I Think I Read 2.1 Vs April, 2019

So this all a bunch of hullabaloo, and merely gives the RepubliQons something to scream about in terms of federal spending.

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Response to GB_RN (Reply #3)

Fri May 28, 2021, 05:35 AM

4. Very Close 😊 -- I get 2.2% annualized from April 2019 to April 2021

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0
April 2019 255.326
                      > +0.34%
April 2020 256.192
                      > +4.15%
April 2021 266.832

April 2021 / April 2019: +4.51%
Annualized: 4.51%/2 = 2.25%
(or 2.23% if do it the fancy math way that considers compounding:

( (266.832/255.326 )^(1/2) - 1 )*100% = 2.23%

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