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Mon May 31, 2021, 06:29 AM

Facing a demographic crisis, China to allow three children per family

Source: Washington Post

China on Monday said it would allow couples to have three children, up from the existing limit of two, as it further loosened decades of population controls that have left the country in a demographic crisis. The policy, announced at a Politburo meeting chaired by Chinese leader Xi Jinping, was important for “maintaining national security and social stability,” according to state news agency Xinhua in a summary of the meeting. The change comes as China faces an aging population and shrinking labor force, a trend that experts say could derail economic growth and undermine the country’s position as the world’s most populous nation if not reversed.

Earlier this month, the results of a once-in-a-decade census showed China’s population growth over the last decade was its slowest since the 1950s. China’s population was 1.41 billion in 2020, with average annual population growth over the last decade at just 0.53 percent. By expanding the limit on children to three, experts said officials have all but completely lifted family planning restrictions in place for more than 40 years. In a country where increasingly more residents are opting not to even have children, few would want to have more than three, experts said.

“Citizens can decide whether to have children or not and how many,” said Liu Ruishuang, deputy director of the Department of Medical Ethics and Health Law at Peking University. Demographers and other observers have said for years that family planning rules were likely to be loosened further or entirely scrapped. In 2016, China ended decades of the “one child policy” to allow all couples to have two children, but the policy change did little to encourage couples, deterred by the increasingly high costs of raising a family in China’s highly competitive cities.

Population experts have long said that simply lifting restrictions alone will not improve the birthrate. Advocates have called for support for child care, medical procedures, tax benefits and subsidies and a focus on preventing workplace discrimination for mothers. “The three-child policy is a step forward, but the question is: If the two-child policy did not mean people had more children, will that happen under a three-child policy?” said Sun Xiaomei, a professor at China Women’s University.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-three-child-policy-demographic/2021/05/31/95a086e2-c1e8-11eb-89a4-b7ae22aa193e_story.html



I kept hearing a blip and tail-end of a story running on the radio early this morning on the news but didn't catch who they were talking about until I saw this...

35 replies, 2556 views

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Reply Facing a demographic crisis, China to allow three children per family (Original post)
BumRushDaShow May 2021 OP
Rhiannon12866 May 2021 #1
BumRushDaShow May 2021 #2
progree May 2021 #4
BumRushDaShow May 2021 #7
paleotn May 2021 #14
modrepub May 2021 #13
Renew Deal May 2021 #3
JI7 May 2021 #5
lookyhereyou May 2021 #6
jimfields33 May 2021 #9
Hugh_Lebowski May 2021 #23
GulfCoast66 May 2021 #34
mainer May 2021 #8
mopinko May 2021 #10
BumRushDaShow May 2021 #12
mopinko May 2021 #15
BumRushDaShow May 2021 #16
paleotn May 2021 #17
AZLD4Candidate May 2021 #21
paleotn May 2021 #22
AZLD4Candidate May 2021 #26
paleotn May 2021 #11
onetexan May 2021 #18
AZLD4Candidate May 2021 #19
TomWilm May 2021 #20
dalton99a May 2021 #24
roamer65 May 2021 #25
GB_RN May 2021 #28
roamer65 May 2021 #30
GB_RN May 2021 #27
PoindexterOglethorpe May 2021 #29
roamer65 May 2021 #31
yaesu May 2021 #32
summer_in_TX May 2021 #33
ExTex Jun 2021 #35

Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 06:50 AM

1. Well, I guess I haven't been paying attention, I thought families were still limited to just one

I was reminded of my parents' trip to China which was back in the '80s. They were part of a group which visited a school and they were paired up with children in a class. The child my Dad was paired with was a little boy who was apparently having a bad day. The impression they had was that many of the kids were somewhat spoiled, all being only children. They were told that parents put make up on the children to "cheer them up" if they were out of sorts and this little boy who was assigned to my father was all painted up with rouge! Fortunately, my Dad was always good with kids and he also had a sense of humor - and he did his best to win the child over.

BTW, my Dad was a "people person" in general, liked meeting the interesting people he met in other parts of the world. And on the trip back he sat with an elderly Chinese man on the plane and taught him to use a fork.

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Response to Rhiannon12866 (Reply #1)

Mon May 31, 2021, 07:05 AM

2. Just off the top of my head

I think they were limited to "one girl" at some point (which prompted all the adoption services for Chinese girls), while the max number of children may have been two (but people opted for singles).

I bet your dad was a trip too!

The big benefit of the chopsticks over the fork is that you can use them to stir noodles during the cooking without snagging them and breaking them apart, as well as for scrambling eggs and moving stuff around in a wok for stir fry. I even bought some "cooking" chopsticks that are really long and I use them all the time!

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #2)

Mon May 31, 2021, 08:08 AM

4. A super quick Google search result on "China's one girl policy"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-child_policy#:~:text=The%20policy%20was%20modified%20beginning,other%20groups%2C%20including%20ethnic%20minorities.

The policy was modified beginning in the mid 1980s to allow rural parents a second child if the first was a daughter, and then lasted three more decades before the government announced in late 2015 a reversion to a two-child limit. The policy also allowed exceptions for some other groups, including ethnic minorities.


Edited to add (darn, only goes out to 2015, so doesn't show the effect of the two children policy) :



Well, this next link shows up to "current" and projections for the future
It says, for example:

The current birth rate for China in 2021 is 11.159 births per 1000 people, a 2.25% decline from 2020. The birth rate for China in 2020 was 11.416 births per 1000 people, a 2.2% decline from 2019.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/birth-rate

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Response to progree (Reply #4)

Mon May 31, 2021, 08:38 AM

7. Thanks for the search

(I have been MIRTing this morning so didn't get chance )

Bloomberg has a good summary analysis done last year (with demographics) - https://www.bloomberg.com/quicktake/china-s-two-child-policy





Some additional - https://www.statista.com/statistics/250650/number-of-births-in-china/

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #7)

Mon May 31, 2021, 10:49 AM

14. That's what happens when....

women leave the farm, go to the cities, and become educated. That's added to their gender imbalance caused by decades of bad policy.

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Response to progree (Reply #4)

Mon May 31, 2021, 10:43 AM

13. Why Does It Seem the Birth Rate Goes Up

Almost immediately after some big death event? The US after WWII or the baby boom generation for example.

Though in China's case it seems the general instability of their economic reforms definitely interrupted their birth and death rate trends.

In general, it seems the more even footing women have with men, the lower the birth rate. Now if we can only figure out how to have a functioning economic system with a stable population.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 08:00 AM

3. I read somewhere that China will pass the US as the #1 economy for most of the century.

Until near the end where the US returns to #1 because of a shrinking Chinese population.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 08:14 AM

5. How about Automation and how that would affect the jobs they think these future

populations will be doing ?

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 08:34 AM

6. population should decrease

if we want to get to sustainable

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Response to lookyhereyou (Reply #6)

Mon May 31, 2021, 10:28 AM

9. They should have thought through the one child policy first

Everyone had a boy. So now the ability to have children lessens for the country. Yes a smaller population is fine but no population is not at least for China.

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Response to lookyhereyou (Reply #6)

Mon May 31, 2021, 01:46 PM

23. I agree. And why I always say a world economy based on perpetual growth means we'll never

succeed in fighting climate change, not at the level we need to to avert catastrophe.

A perpetual growth economy means no serious efforts to get to negative population growth, it is in fact anathema to the system.

But less people is EXACTLY what this world needs. Desperately.

If we don't do it ourselves, purposefully, the world (i.e. physics, chemistry, resource availability, drought, etc) is going to do it for us, and we're not going to like it one bit.

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Response to lookyhereyou (Reply #6)

Mon May 31, 2021, 11:17 PM

34. I agree. But certainly not by government mandates.

The best was to decrease birth rates is improved economic situations and more importantly empowering women.

I spent some time in China and in the cities noticed the lack of children.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 08:50 AM

8. It's even thornier than just a falling population

The population they have now is missing a large number of girls. Which means the country's fertility is even lower.

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Response to mainer (Reply #8)

Mon May 31, 2021, 10:32 AM

10. more unattached males is never good.

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Response to mopinko (Reply #10)

Mon May 31, 2021, 10:43 AM

12. My mother always used to say

when you have an "excess" of males, you often end up with wars on the way.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Reply #12)

Mon May 31, 2021, 10:54 AM

15. probably why we needed to invent

monogamy to evolve.

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Response to mopinko (Reply #15)

Mon May 31, 2021, 10:57 AM

16. Believe it or not

there are a number of other animal/bird/fish species that are monogamous. It's pretty fascinating but then some of it might have to do with the gestation period too...

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Response to mainer (Reply #8)

Mon May 31, 2021, 11:06 AM

17. That also impacts global capital markets

Single Chinese men tend to save far more than those with families, coupled with the fact that healthcare and old age safety nets are nearly non-existent in China. That's helped create imbalances in global capital markets for years now. Too much savings in search of too few investments drives down interest rates in places like the US and fuels asset bubbles in China and abroad. The Chinese government has been struggling for years to get their citizens to spend more and save less.

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Response to paleotn (Reply #17)

Mon May 31, 2021, 12:51 PM

21. Single chinese men save? Where do you hear that?

As soon as most single chinese men I knew got paid, they were off to the bar/nightclub/KTV with hookers with their buddies faster than you shake a stick at. They didn't need to save. Their parents supported them while they worked by living with them, then when they got married, they lived with his parents until her parent bought the new couple and a car.

That is tradition there. 12 years of living there being told this daily.

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Response to AZLD4Candidate (Reply #21)

Mon May 31, 2021, 01:32 PM

22. Getting married or not getting married is the kicker.

To make themselves competitive in an ultra competitive market, some feel financial resources are key. Thus, extraordinary savings rates, particularly among single, Chinese men.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-men/

Housing prices and savings rates. Bachelors are furiously building houses in China to attract wives, and prices are soaring. But otherwise they are not spending, and that in turn fuels China’s huge trade surplus. In India, there is the opposite effect: Because brides are scarce, families are under less pressure to save for expensive dowries.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-men/#scrolltwo

https://www.newsweek.com/2015/06/05/gender-imbalance-china-one-child-law-backfired-men-336435.html

https://www.forbes.com/2010/02/02/china-saving-marriage-markets-economy-trade.html?sh=6575a2e17a83

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Response to paleotn (Reply #22)

Mon May 31, 2021, 03:57 PM

26. Thank you. I have first hand experience living there, married to a Chinese national

and owning a home there.

Marriage isn't mostly for love. It's mostly a business contract between two families. Usually, there is a bride price, meaning the groom and the family are actually buying the woman because the daughter's family will scream "you're taking her away. What is our compensation for it?" If you don't pay it, the marriage is off and you can and will get sued for whatever the bride's family determines is the offense (usually it's loss of face).

One thing Chinese men are doing is buying their wives from vietnam (if they aren't wealthy) or from Ukraine and Russia (if they are because a blond, blue eyed white wife is LOADS of mian zi). then they are given a "spouse visa," but you can't work legally on one of those (I know. I have one because China changed work visa law requirements during COVID19 and I was denied a new work visa residence permit), so the foreign spouse becomes pretty much a slave to the chinese spouse. . .one word from the Chinese spouse and the marriage ends, the foreigner is arrested and fined out the ying-yang, then deported with a ten year black list. Oh, and the deportation is at the cost of the foreigner too.

And again, I lived there. I'm glad what I saw all over China is negated by American news sources. I guess my eyes lied to me.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 10:40 AM

11. Pushed the brake pedal a little too hard for too long and undershot.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 11:07 AM

18. I've read that the young couples with 2 incomes in the more urban cities dont want children

Dont want more than 1 child given the risingc0st of living in those areas. I wouldnt put it past China's oppressive regime communist government from subjecting women to breed babies, wholesale.they have no regard for human rights of the Wuighurs, why would they care about women's rights? What is the incentive for these women to have more children if the state continually tramples on their rights & the rights of minorities?

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Response to onetexan (Reply #18)

Mon May 31, 2021, 11:55 AM

19. While the Chinese government are idiots, the people tend to me more pragmatic (if they haven't

ingested the kool-aid). A lot of Chinese women I know living there for 12 years are putting both child rearing and marriage on hold for their career.

They are challenging the concept of the leftover woman, which by the age of 26 if you aren't married, you never will because men want younger women. They are also challenging the patriarchal idea that the husband needs to be better than the wife. IF the man has a master's degree, the woman must not have it because the man needs to be better.

They are also challenging the Confucius idea "when the parents are alive, the children shall not leave." China is also quietly going through a sexual revolution.

All of this is the reason Xi Jinping pushing hard a cultural reform to return to tradition. Some are jumping on it and get onto the news to show how "all of China embraces Xi Jinping." The reality is different.

My wife is Chinese. She is going to be 32 this year. She is only now ready emotionally for children and when we are together again, we will have one. But I told her on our wedding night that we won't have children until she is ready. Most women in China are the same way.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 12:51 PM

20. On the discussion on the 'dangers' of surplus men ...

This was set off in an alarmist paper, ‘A Surplus of Men, A Deficit of Peace’, published in 2002: ‘What are the likely domestic, regional, and perhaps even international repercussions if their growth of young unattached men is left unchecked? And state that ‘90% of all arrestees in 2000 were men. Another paper from 2010 links the rising incidence of rape and sexual harassment in China to the scarcity of women.
https://thewire.in/books/too-many-men-too-few-women

Hesketh however, argue that as yet, there is little evidence for this hypothesis. A study could find no evidence that unmarried men were especially prone to violence and aggression. Rather, the men were characterized as shy and withdrawn, rather than aggressive. In addition, reports of crime and disorder are not higher in areas with a known excess of young, single men.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3367246/

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 01:57 PM

24. Japan and South Korea are already in trouble


In a nutshell, there are not enough young people to sustain economic growth and support the old folks

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 02:24 PM

25. China needs to reinstate the one child policy.

The planet itself is at stake.

We have to get the population on this planet down as fast as possible, by natural means.

Limits on births need to be worldwide.

Time for a one world social security system.

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Response to roamer65 (Reply #25)

Mon May 31, 2021, 04:05 PM

28. I Agree

But the RWNJs in this country already scream about a unified world government and giving up our sovereignty to the UN. Can you imagine the howling over THAT idea?

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Response to GB_RN (Reply #28)

Mon May 31, 2021, 04:57 PM

30. Yup. Definitely.

However, it needs to be done for the long term survival of the human race.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 04:04 PM

27. Yes, What Could Go Wrong Here?

The most populous country in the world wants a bigger population…

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 04:10 PM

29. In reality, almost now families will have even two children, let alone three.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 05:00 PM

31. The largest and most effective birth control device is INFLATION.

Prices need to increase substantially for the sake of the planet as a whole.

That is why China’s birth rate is falling so quickly. The more expensive it becomes to have children, the less people will have or not even at all.

This is one of the reasons I fully support unlimited quantitative easing.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 05:01 PM

32. its interesting that the GOP and their rich masters are all about stopping abortions yet they love

to do biz with a country that has been forcing abortions on women for decades.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Mon May 31, 2021, 07:33 PM

33. Our own birth rate is way down too.

I heard that the expected pandemic baby boom was a bust pretty much all over.


Back a long time ago (college in the 1970s), I took a course in comparative psychology. Dealt with animal populations as well as human. A point was made that all animal populations had members that preferred their own gender sexually. But also, population studies of many species showed that as crowding increased the percentage of individuals with a homosexual orientation likewise increased. My take was that it seemed like a natural population control phenomenon.

I've recently noticed when I'm in environments with a lot of young people, that a high percentage compared to when I was in college are clearly not in what used to be the gender mainstream. In fact, a high percentage of those strike me as trans or binary. It's occurred to me that it could be a planetary level response to over-population. Pure speculation on my part.

If so, it's fascinating (and a little alarming) to think that the planet may have ways of dealing with our species' over-population.

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Response to BumRushDaShow (Original post)

Tue Jun 1, 2021, 12:30 AM

35. Years ago, an elderly family friend who was a history professor at the University of Michigan...

... said that as a youth in the 1920s he wanted to "see the world" and wound up hiking through China. At one point in his journey he found himself on a dirt road on the outskirts of a large city (unfortunately I can't remember which one). As he was walking past an enormous steel dumpster, he was horrified to witness several women, each cradling a screaming newborn infant, walk up to the dumpster, toss the wailing baby inside, then leave. He was visibly shaken as he recounted his experience. I knew him and believe him; but I can't prove he was telling the truth.

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