Q4 GDP: US economy expanded at 6.9% annualized rate, topping expectations

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo Finance

Q4 GDP: US economy expanded at 6.9% annualized rate, topping expectations

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, January 27, 2022, 8:31 AM · 3 min read

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) ramped up in the final months of 2021, with still-solid consumer spending helping stoke growth and offset early negative impacts from the Omicron variant's spread. ... The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- GDP quarter-over-quarter, annualized: 6.9% vs. 5.5% expected, 2.3% in Q3

-- Personal consumption: 3.3% vs. 3.4% expected, 2.0% in Q3

-- Core personal consumption expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 4.9% vs. 4.9% expected, 4.6% in Q3

Growth in the fourth quarter rebounded more than expected from the third quarter's disappointing rate of expansion, when GDP rose at a 2.3% annualized rate -- its slowest since mid-2020.

A jump in consumer spending during this year's record holiday shopping season was expected to contribute heavily to the headline gain. As consumers attempted to get ahead of supply chain delays and out-of-stocks, spending was pulled forward from the typical holiday period of November and December to October. This helped to lift overall fourth-quarter consumption for the final three months of the year, even as retail sales in December pulled back on a month-over-month basis.

{snip}

"The pace of business investment growth should remain steady, with intellectual property offsetting softness in equipment and structures investment, both of which have been hampered by supply shortages, rising costs and work-related shifts away from the office," he added. "Following two quarters of decline, residential investment should turn positive as sales and home improvement spending have recovered in recent months."

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q4-gdp-us-economic-activity-recovery-192945002.html

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For the predicted numbers, see:

Wed Jan 26, 2022, 03:25 PM

Q4 GDP preview: Economists look for growth acceleration before Omicron impact

https://www.democraticunderground.com/111692411

[BumRushDaShow]

1. Waiting for them to "bury the lede"

Good morning!

U.S. economy grew 5.7 percent in 2021, fastest full-year clip since 1984, despite ongoing pandemic


By Andrew Van Dam and Rachel Siegel

Today at 8:31 a.m. EST

The U.S. economy grew 5.7 percent in 2021, the fastest full-year clip since 1984, roaring back in the pandemic’s second year despite two new virus variants that rocked the United States. The growth was uneven, with a burst of government spending helping propel a fast start, even as a surge in new cases and deaths in the second half of the year created new pressures. The economy grew 6.9 percent from October to December, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday, a sharp acceleration from the 2.3 percent it grew in the previous quarter.

The economic growth created a record 6.4 million jobs in 2021 — but also brought with it a host of complications, helping fuel the highest inflation in 40 years and creating supply chain snarls as consumers hungry for products overwhelmed the global delivery system. To beat back rising prices, the Federal Reserve is now shifting its strategy and preparing for multiple interest rate hikes this year, convinced it has given enough support to help the labor market and now must keep the economy from overheating even further.

While the omicron variant had begun its vicious surge by the end of 2021, economists didn’t expect to see any fallout in Thursday’s data. Rather, forecasters anticipated that the GDP report would represent a year of blockbuster growth despite the ongoing unpredictability of the pandemic economy, from labor shortages to supply chain backlogs to inflation.

The economy has made tremendous strides since being gutted by the coronavirus pandemic in the spring of 2020, and the Biden administration often touts last year’s gains as a vote of confidence for Democrats’ sprawling stimulus measures, which juiced the broader economy and cushioned peoples’ pocketbooks. The Federal Reserve, too, has kept up enormous support for the financial system, and has only recently mounted an aggressive effort to unwind its pandemic-era interventions.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/27/gdp-2021-q4-economy/

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. Good morning. I got to juggle two articles coming out at 8:30 a.m. NT

[BumRushDaShow]

4. Multi-tasking master

[BumRushDaShow]

3. NYT

U.S. economic growth was 1.7 percent in the last quarter, capping a strong year.


By Talmon Joseph Smith


Continuing to rebound from the shocks of the pandemic, the nation’s economy expanded by 1.7 percent in the final three months of 2021, the Commerce Department announced Thursday. The figure, which was adjusted for inflation, reflects the growth in gross domestic product — the broadest measure of the goods and services produced. On an annualized basis, the increase for the quarter was 6.9 percent.

For the full year, the economic expansion was the biggest since 1984 — an impressive feat, though one that also reflects the depth of the damage inflicted by the coronavirus the year before. The acceleration in the fourth quarter was led by an upturn in exports as well as accelerations in inventory investment and consumer spending. Consumer spending and private investment were quickly revived as a result of vaccination efforts, cheap credit conditions and additional rounds of federal aid to households and businesses.

The labor market has recovered almost 19 million of the 22 million jobs lost near the peak of virus-induced suspensions in activity. The initial momentum provided by government stimulus and the post-vaccine resurgence in many sectors is projected to fade further, and the Federal Reserve is planning to use its policy tools in the coming months to rein in inflation. In addition, economists expect the Omicron variant to be a drag on the economy in January and much of February.

But they say activity should normalize as the variant fades and spring approaches. “Fiscal and monetary policy committed to supporting the economy aggressively during the pandemic, and it worked,” said Julia Coronado, a former Federal Reserve economist and a professor of finance at the University of Texas at Austin. “Not only did we meet the goal of shortening the recession,” she said, “we exceeded all expectations” on the speed of re-employment.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/27/business/us-gdp-4q-2021.html

[progree]

14. Bizarre headline. I've never seen a non-annualized GDP rate be headlined before. Never.

Now the so-called "paper of record" does it, for chrissake. I'm frankly traumatized.

[BumRushDaShow]

15. LOL

I've seen GDP discussed in articles "by quarter" but I suppose in this case, it fits with what I posted upthread about waiting to see one of them "burying the lede".

[Magoo48]

5. GDP is an economic thermometer along the road to a dystopian wasteland.

We consume the finale as if it’s infinite, we place next generations in said dystopian wasteland.

Look Up, intricate to the BIG ROCK’S guidance system is GDP.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

6. NEW: Pres. Biden celebrates after U.S. economy grew 5.7% in 2021

Link to tweet

[LetMyPeopleVote]

7. Biden says it is "no accident" that the U.S. economy grew 5.7% during his first year in office

Link to tweet

[machoneman]

8. Fox: Dems in disarray! Biden failing! Economy in free-fall! Yeah...........sure!

[WHITT]

9. Unfortunately

As consumers attempted to get ahead of supply chain delays and out-of-stocks, spending was pulled forward from the typical holiday period of November and December to October. This helped to lift overall fourth-quarter consumption for the final three months of the year, even as retail sales in December pulled back on a month-over-month basis.

The economy slowed in November, even more so in December, and declined sharply after Christmas, as Omicron inversely rose.

[progree]

10. Yes, the month over month retail sales numbers: Oct: +1.8%, Nov: +0.2%, Dec: -1.9%

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142853343

They are seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted (inflation-adjusted numbers would look even worse).

[WHITT]

13. Hope Powell Is Paying Attention

[LetMyPeopleVote]

11. Spot the difference

Link to tweet

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

12. Yeah that Biden is sure messing the economy up