Poll Sees Shift in Independent Vote, a Hurdle for Obama

[alp227]

President Obama opens his re-election bid facing significant obstacles among independent voters, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll, with the critical piece of the electorate that cemented his victory four years ago open to denying him a second term.

(...)

The swing voters who will play a pivotal role in determining his political fate are up for grabs, the poll found, with just 31 percent expressing a favorable opinion of Mr. Obama. Two-thirds of independent voters say he has not made real progress fixing the economy.

The president, mindful of the headwinds facing him, begins his first major television advertising campaign on Thursday in a handful of battleground states. His targets include independent voters, who the poll found also hold deep skepticism of Republicans.

(...)

But Americans are also far more apt to blame Republicans than the president for failing to find common ground and passing legislation. An overwhelming number of Americans support compromise over sticking to positions. A majority of people say Mr. Obama is trying to work with Republicans in order to get things done, while two-thirds say Republicans in Congress are not trying to work with Mr. Obama.

full: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/19/us/politics/poll-shows-obamas-vulnerability-with-swing-voters.html?pagewanted=all

[bluestateguy]

1. Pollsters are all sleazebags

It is about as honorable of a profession as being a hedge fund manager or a health insurance co. CEO.

Cool it with the polls!

[Summer Hathaway]

2. CBS News and the NYT

Two entities that will sell more newspapers and garner a larger audience share by promoting the idea that there's trouble at the mill.

Why. Am. I. NOT. Surprised.

[leveymg]

3. Here's the flip-side: Alienate your base by being too centrist, and you're fired.

It's the ideological base that does GOTV. Without it, forget reelection.

The inherent premise of this poll and its conclusions are entirely self-serving to a corporate media that wants to push policy and the electorate ever-rightward. No more.

[mikekohr]

7. 86% of the "base" approves, a higher % than Clinton at similar point

No one will keep everyone happy. But the vast majority of the "base" approves. Give that centrist, alienation meme it a rest.

[leveymg]

8. Do you actually believe those Gallup push-polls?

As someone who's still a part of the Party apparatus and has held paid positions at various times for the DCCC and DSC, worked in a Congressional Office on Capitol Hill and countless campaigns, is a member of a Democratic committee, and was an Obama delegate, I can tell you there's been a profound change in the attitude of the activist base. Sorry you don't care to notice, and would prefer to believe a GOP push-poll on that.

[mikekohr]

16. I Believe The Vast Majority Of Democrats Are Proud Of President Obama

As a person who is part of our local Party apparatus, has worked in countless campaigns, as a member of our county Democratic Committee, as the author of "Mike's Corner," a blog maintained to push Democratic accomplishments and policy http://bureaucountydems.blogspot.com/ as an early Obama supporter for president (I told Barack and Michele in July of 2004 he would be president some day), as a current precienct committee man, as county board member and Township Clerk, I believe the President will win re-election with +52.3% of the popular vote and will carry the Democrat vote with +96% and the Independant vote with 54-56%.
That's four more years.

Obama and 25 in '12

[leveymg]

18. Practically all of us are proud of President Obama, but many are deeply disappointed by policies

Different set of emotions, but not mutually exclusive. One springs from putting him into office in '08, the other from what he's done (and not done) since.

Your estimates seem about right, at this point. Not sure about the "25" part, but we'll see. I think it's more likely given Democratic retirements and the greater number of races we'll have to contest that the GOP may actually pick up the Senate than we'll regain the House. I know that in Virginia its going to be tough to hang onto both our Senate seats.

[Monk06]

4. I don't there is any such thing as a swing or independent voter. It's a pollster's fiction to cover

bad sampling and higher than claimed margins of error.

Show me an undecided voter and I will show you a person that, for privacy reasons will not disclose party affiliation. Anyone who switched from Dem to Repug in the present political climate would die of brain injury from whiplash.

[still_one]

5. what a worthless poll. As far as what they refer to as "swing" voters, the daily show had a

a segment several years ago which described them perfectly. It was a satire, but so true. They were asked to find a chair to sit down, and they could not make their mind up which chair to choose

No question that Obama has made a lot of mistakes and screwed up in a lot of areas, but if they cannot even see the differences between Obama and the current crop of republicans, then they are as inept as in that daily show episode.

"Americans are more apt to blame republicans than the president for failing to find common ground...", and yet in these so called "swing voters", are open to denying him a second term?

Something doesn't sync. It was the policies since reagan that in 2008 the full effects of deregulation, destruction of labor, and the elimination of the middle class was realized due to those policies, and these idiots believe that electing a republican again will change that?

I am truly amazed by the stupidity of the so-called independents.

I wonder how many realize that all the progress made in civil rights, gender rights, along with programs such as social security and medicare, are in danger of being destroyed.

Funny that Wisconsin, Indiana, and other states are now realizing how much disdain the republican party has for labor, and they are now trying to reverse the effects of 2010 which if nothing else demonstrated the true colors of the republican party

Good luck middle-class America if you elect a venture capitalist

[iemitsu]

10. yeah, and its the democrats in my state

that are about to introduce a bill to support charter schools even though the citizens of washington have voted against doing so three times.
neither party is on the side of the people.

[still_one]

13. Very sad indeed /nt

[Fearless]

14. Idiots!

[jaded_old_cynic]

17. Undecided voters.

[DCKit]

6. What y'all ^ said. Excellent points, too.

Gotta consider the source.

[bemildred]

9. Might as well read goat entrails.

The MSM will pretend it's a horse race right up to the last week, no matter what. Money is at stake.

[Dan]

11. If not Obama,

then who will they vote for?

[Odin2005]

12. Horseshit poll.

Whenever the PTB roll out the "Independent Swing Voter" meme I roll my eyes. They have created a false narrative for about 2 decades now that "Indie" = moderate. I'm an independent and I'm a fucking socialist. Many "independents" are movement conservative nutjobs.

[center rising]

15. Independents are going to decide this election.

Not good news for a sitting president.