A food insecurity expert predicts that there's only 10 weeks of wheat supplies left in the world as
Source: Insider
The world has about 10 weeks of wheat supplies stored as Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its fourth month, a food insecurity expert told the UN.
Sara Menker, the CEO of agriculture analytics firm Gro Intelligence, told the UN Security Council that the Russia-Ukraine war was not the cause of a food security crisis but "simply added fuel to a fire that was long burning."
Ukraine is considered the world's "breadbasket" and Russia and Ukraine combined account for almost a third of the world's wheat exports.
Read more: https://www.insider.com/world-has-10-weeks-of-wheat-supplies-left-in-storage-food-expert-warns-2022-5
Well hell.
truthisfreedom
(23,113 posts)Igel
(35,197 posts)Unbleached wheat flour. And the parallel foodstuff called "pasta".
Cooking oil. Which I cut with some beef fat and whatever schaltz (including turkey fat) I produce. (The rest of the beef fat goes to making bar soap.)
Even masa harina. Many countries will see a shift from wheat to maize. Both are global markets.
Sadly, usually have a large bag of atta flour in reserve, but haven't hit up the Indo-Pak market since January and I've eaten far more corn tortillas than chapati recently. That trip's next Thursday--need mustard seed and methi for my summer batches of chili pickle. Don't know if India's blocking grain imports includes atta or just bulk unprocessed grain. I like my chapati, but have my price point for atta flour.
Marthe48
(16,692 posts)Hope the story is temporary, and we don't add famine to the galloping horses of war, pestilence and death.
Igel
(35,197 posts)I'm assuming that's the stuff that's sitting in silos unallocated and waiting to be shipped to other countries.
https://www.machinefinder.com/ww/en-US/faq/when-is-winter-wheat-harvested gives probable winter wheat harvest dates for the US.
It's 6 months later for the grain producers like Argentina and Australia, assuming they have good conditions.
The Ukraine winter wheat crop sown last fall should be ready in June. It won't be able to get out unless they can ship it long way 'round through the Baltics or maybe the Balkans, but the country will easily harvest, pending some huge turn in how the war goes, a large portion of its crop. More worrisome is the Russian theft and in fact one nearby Russian oblast's claim that it has a right to any wheat or crops in Ukraine as sort of "spoils" of war.
Locusts, they are.
Marthe48
(16,692 posts)I got edgy when I read the headline.
I put it in my deep freezer. I have a feeling all of the cotton farmers around me are going to be switching to wheat pretty soon.
aggiesal
(8,864 posts)Chainfire
(17,308 posts)Marthe48
(16,692 posts)Might buy a loaf of bread one of these days
roamer65
(36,739 posts)Paid $3 USD for it. Now they are novelty items damn near $250 USD.
Marthe48
(16,692 posts)I bet you feel rich The Duetsche marks aren't worth that much. Face value $100,000.00 each, worth about $6 each.
roamer65
(36,739 posts)For awhile I was a trillionaire in Zimbabwe.
DURHAM D
(32,595 posts)China (134,254,710 tons)
India (107,590,000 tons)
Russia (85,896,326 tons)
United States (49,690,680 tons)
Canada (35,183,000 tons)
France (30,144,110 tons)
Pakistan (25,247,511 tons)
Ukraine (24,912,350 tons)
I did not realize India was number 2.
Edit:
Here are the largest exporters of wheat:
1 Russia 7,918,294
2 United States 6,318,111
3 Canada 6,317,889
4 France 4,528,591
5 Ukraine 3,594,217
6 Australia 2,698,498
7 Germany 2,105,865
8 Argentina 2,029,494
9 Kazakhstan 1,137,140
10 Poland 1,047,399
dweller
(23,562 posts)has banned all wheat exports
in yesterdays news
✌🏻
Mr.Bill
(24,104 posts)looks like they were not exporting much to begin with. With their population, that stands to reason.
In the list above of producers at least
✌🏻
Rabrrrrrr
(58,347 posts)India doesn't look to have exported much before deciding not to export any.
wnylib
(21,146 posts)which is reducing their ability to produce enough wheat for their own people. They will want to import, but there will be none available on the world market.
DURHAM D
(32,595 posts)IronLionZion
(45,259 posts)causing draughts and heat waves
muriel_volestrangler
(101,154 posts)In tonnes (metric, which the first list is too), it's:
1 Russia 37,267,014
2 United States 26,131,626
3 Canada 26,110,509
4 France 19,792,597
5 Ukraine 18,055,673
6 Australia 10,400,418
7 Argentina 10,196,931
8 Germany 9,259,493
9 Kazakhstan 5,198,943
10 Poland 4,689,130
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wheat_exports
And I reckon (from my own calculation of FAO 2020 figures) for net exports, and percentage of net positive exports in the world, those above 1% are:
Russia 37076972 20.28%
Canada 25928340 14.18%
USA 24221731 13.25%
France 19529386 10.68%
Ukraine 18044733 9.87%
Argentina 10196913 5.58%
Australia 9918181 5.43%
Germany 5260125 2.88%
Kazakhstan 4564789 2.50%
Lithuania 3865755 2.11%
Poland 3819798 2.09%
Bulgaria 3194554 1.75%
Romania 3092623 1.69%
Hungary 2845397 1.56%
Czechia 2425652 1.33%
Latvia 2248323 1.23%
And the biggest net importers, in tonnes:
Japan -5373862 (* no export figure given for Japan in FAO figures, so this might be less)
Morocco -5521519
Brazil -5599048
Nigeria -5902504
Bangladesh -6014979
Philippines -6150374
Algeria -7053563
Italy -7933352
Egypt -9042575
Turkey -9534543
China -9569878
Indonesia -10299702
reACTIONary
(5,749 posts)Bernardo de La Paz
(48,788 posts)Canada and Ukraine have comparable population sizes, at least until the putz in Moskva started killing and dispersing Ukrainians.
Hey, Durham D, most Canadian wheat is Durum.
DURHAM D
(32,595 posts)muriel_volestrangler
(101,154 posts)Populations 2.7 million and 1.9 million respectively, which pulls them comfortably ahead of Canada in the per capita listing.
Bernardo de La Paz
(48,788 posts)JoeOtterbein
(7,698 posts)...oh, F...! Moment for me!
(tears)
marybourg
(12,540 posts)got better and the cause of it, which had eluded humankind for thousands of years, became apparent.
Hoyt
(54,770 posts)wnylib
(21,146 posts)womanofthehills
(8,584 posts)Because there is a shortage of fertilizers/herbicides. Corn needs more fertilizer than soy.
wnylib
(21,146 posts)They planted beans and squash with it, in little mounds. The 3 plants provide nutrients for each other. The corn beans could "climb" the corn stalks.
Not practical in large scale farming, at least not in mounds. But they could do it like my father did in our backyard city garden. He planted squash between the corn stalks and alternated a row of corn with a row of beans.
Smaller scale farms could do that.
Pobeka
(4,999 posts)USA for example, won't run out of wheat.
Of course if the great plains sees a major heat wave this summer all bets are off.
ToxMarz
(2,154 posts)So we will still pay more or go without.
Kablooie
(18,571 posts)because wheat marketers will have the option of exporting US wheat at exorbitant prices.
US consumers will have to compete with that.
NullTuples
(6,017 posts)Last edited Sun May 22, 2022, 02:28 AM - Edit history (1)
But we don't thanks to Addision "Mitch" McConnell & friends who would much prefer chaos because it makes it easier to profiteer and plunder.
radical noodle
(7,990 posts)and not affected by summer droughts.
machoneman
(3,952 posts)We and a dozen plus other countries won't run out. Sure, other countries will be hurt but it's not a world-wide event by any stretch.
70sEraVet
(3,430 posts)But the poor will suffer.
But the poorest of the poor will starve.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,154 posts)This is a major analyst of world agriculture, testifying at the UN, and you're just saying "they're wrong"?
Get real.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,154 posts)Ukraine exported 10% of the net exports of wheat, in 2020.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,369 posts)The world is not going to run out of wheat in 10 weeks.
Farmer-Rick
(10,072 posts)It sounds like sensationalism.
Do you really think McDonalds, Wendys, Taco Bell, Subway and all those hundreds of other fast food joints that depend on cheap wheat bread are going to go out of business for lack of wheat? I seriously doubt it, but I kind of hope so.
Anyway sounds like my low carb diet is going to do just fine.
When above ground crops become scarce, mankind has historically turned to below ground crops. Here's to potatoes and beets. Even my sheep enjoy sweet potatoes and turnips.
twodogsbarking
(9,308 posts)Igel
(35,197 posts)countries locked in their purchases of wheat that they'd have otherwise said, "Eh, later" about.
C Moon
(12,188 posts)Demovictory9
(32,324 posts)machoneman
(3,952 posts)Response to C Moon (Reply #18)
luvtheGWN This message was self-deleted by its author.
luvtheGWN
(1,336 posts)PROFIT bigtime from this.
KY_EnviroGuy
(14,483 posts)KY.......
Ford_Prefect
(7,827 posts)callous taoboy
(4,582 posts)Hugh_Lebowski
(33,643 posts)Fossil Fuel prices are a very significant part of the cost of damn near all agricultural products.
BumRushDaShow
(127,312 posts)- https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=16633596
The U.S. (including all of its territory, both CONUS and OCONUS) can grow and raise almost anything in the world - and that includes tropical plants. For example neither Ukraine nor Russia can grow oranges or lemons or limes as a sustainable crop, and the same pretty much applies to a degree to sugarcane. But the U.S. can and does.
The U.S. consistently ranks in the top 10 for wheat for export.
(and I do "bake" and know about the different types of wheat thanks to King Arthur Flour, recently renamed "King Arthur Baking Company" )
And we are top for corn -
It's not like there is no one to step up but I think aside from (corporate) farms here converting to biofuels, the pandemic ended up having many of them with completely full silos of product that they could not process and thus that surplus not only meant no profit, but in many losses. So the reticence is there.
And with meats -
Beef -
Poultry
Pork
And in the top 10 for seafood -
I won't even go into the orchards...
But just like fuel oil is a "commodity" that gets traded and has "futures", so too are "beef" and "pork bellies", and "corn" and "wheat", etc. And the potential for a whole lot more $$$$$$$$ for the corporations is just staring them in the face.
And I also posted a follow-up of that here - https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=16633992
The U.S. can "fix the supply" but will it? Or better, will the corporate farm owners step up to do it or will they sit it out in order to make up for the losses during the pandemic? I expect the latter.
Link to tweet
@simongerman600
Size of Ukraine compared to the US. Just in case that might help you to put things into perspective. Ukraine is the second largest country in Europe (Russia being the biggest).
Image
12:05 PM · Mar 10, 2022
Wheat
Corn
Soybeans
ETA this ditty - https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-us-land-use/
NickB79
(19,113 posts)Last edited Sun May 22, 2022, 09:59 AM - Edit history (1)
For example, most farms are so specialized in the US that they do not even have wheat-planting equipment, or enough extra seed if they wanted to grow more of it. You can't plant wheat with a corn planter, and you can't build out the equipment supply overnight. You also don't buy $100,000 of new equipment on a hunch. AND, wheat requires a different combine head than corn or soy at harvest. That alone is another $100,000. There's already a hot market for used farm equipment, because manufacturers like John Deere are encountering the same parts disruption issues auto makers are. Modern tractors and combines use a crap load of computer chips.
And most farmers lock in their prices a year before, signing contracts for product, ordering seed, ordering fertilizer. You contract X bushels of corn last fall? You plant corn this spring, or take a serious hit economically.
Crop production isn't something you flip a switch on. It takes years to move the needle outside the typical soy/corn rotation in the Midwest, where we still have land that's not drought-ridden. And by then, Ukraine may be free again, and flooding the market with wheat. US farmers would lose their farms in the commodity crash
twodogsbarking
(9,308 posts)You mean you can't grow birds with bird seed?
NickB79
(19,113 posts)Seriously, when I saw that graph overlaying the Ukraine on the US, I knew that guy knew zilch about farming. That's not how farming works. Hell, the area he overlayed it with is in large part dependent on irrigation, and the Ogallalla Aquifer is already tapped out in a lot of the south central US. In 50 years it will be dead, and so will that farmland.
And the biggest irrigated expanse of "crop" land in the US? It's not corn, wheat or soy. It's lawns. Maybe we need to bring back victory gardens instead.
https://www.salon.com/2019/05/05/lawns-are-the-no-1-irrigated-crop-in-america-they-need-to-die_partner/
BumRushDaShow
(127,312 posts)You missed the whole point of the post.
BumRushDaShow
(127,312 posts)The purpose of the post wasn't leaving out what you are indicating.
It is saying that the way that the world food market is being described is distorting the capacity and actual reported exports and sales as of the time the data posted, was collected.
I.e., it is over-inflating the role of Ukraine's contribution to "worldwide" production although it is obviously a huge contributor to that region and offered easy access of distribution.
I remember during the pandemic, when there were tariffs put into place, resulting in retaliatory counter-tariffs that caused a disruption of the movement of OUR goods, that coupled with with worker shortages, lead to artificial surpluses and running out of places to store product.
https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2020/09/24/americas-farmers-resilient-throughout-covid-pandemic
There was research looking at the impact of pandemic on farming and moving foodstuffs - https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-00211-7
And that was BEFORE the invasion cut off a major market from getting product out.
NickB79
(19,113 posts)The real issue right now is that our global food economy has been fundamentally unstable for some time now, and even a small disruption can create dangerous ripple effects. And the Ukraine war and climate change induced global droughts and heatwaves hitting all at once are BIG disruptions.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/1016323038
The food industry is becoming tightly coupled to the financial sector, increasing what scientists call the network density of the system, making it more susceptible to cascading failure. Around the world, trade barriers have come down and roads and ports upgraded, streamlining the global network. You might imagine that this smooth system would enhance food security. But it has allowed companies to shed the costs of warehousing and inventories, switching from stocks to flows. Mostly, this just-in-time strategy works. But if deliveries are interrupted or theres a rapid surge in demand, shelves can suddenly empty.
BumRushDaShow
(127,312 posts)and I understand you can't flip a switch and suddenly make up for such a significant loss and you also have Russia currently blockading ports there keeping product out of the market (limiting "supply" ).
MY point was that the way the media has characterized it with the distorted use of the term "breadbasket of the world" for Ukraine - this is actually exasperating the futures markets that are already ripe with speculation because it gives the appearance that Ukraine actually exports MORE grain (and other products except maybe sunflower seeds) than the U.S. or Russia or other countries and it doesn't.
ETA - I can't leave out "climate change" as killing much of the ability to "plan" due to weather extremes (like the excessive heat going on in the south and cold snaps in some of the areas where a number of grains are grown with snow even this late in the season in the high plains and upper midwest).
Akoto
(4,261 posts)I don't know where this went, but in April, they asked Congress for $500m to put toward the farming sector in order to bolster wheat production. Farmers get money to grow wheat in one season that they might not have otherwise, while still being able to grow soybeans or whatever else they grow during the other part of the year.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-seeks-500-mln-farmers-grow-more-wheat-pay-market-loans-2022-04-28/
Some other more number crunchy stuff above my head:
"In addition, $400 million would be routed through USDA's marketing assistance loans, which provide interim financing to growers and buy them more time to sell their crops at a higher profit.
The Biden administration is seeking a two-year increase in these USDA loan rates for food commodities including wheat, rice and edible oils such as soybean and sunflower oilseeds. Under that proposal, wheat loan rates would go up 63%, oilseed up 40%, and rice and pulse crop up 21%."
luvtheGWN
(1,336 posts)IIRC from public (elementary) school geography, Russia is in Asia.
BumRushDaShow
(127,312 posts)"Europe" is part of a continent called "Eurasia" the last time I had (elementary) school geography so both "Europe" and "Asia" are in "Eurasia".
But geographically, Russia extends across both "political" entities that are called "Europe" and "Asia", with the "Asian portion" extending east to the Pacific and the "European portion" extending along its western border to the Black Sea.
"Traditionally", the Ural Mountain range became the artificial "separator" between the political entities of "Europe" and "Asia".
So if you consider Finland as "Europe" then it's idiotic to suddenly declare that adjacent portions of Russia are "not Europe". The majority of the populated areas of Russia are on the "European" side of the Urals (notably all around Moscow, St. Petersburg, etc).
"Europe" is generally a "political" entity that over the past 30 years, decided to "formalize" a "political region" known as the "European Union".
Here is an "elementary school" style description of Russia and their "place" on that continent - https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/is-russia-in-europe-or-asia.html
What is interesting about Russia is that because it spans that much territory, it is peopled by ethnicities that range from eastern European to north Asian (which includes indigenous peoples).
But then the way Europeans have "defined" maps, political entities, "race", and "ethnicities" over the centuries, we have had and continue to have nonsense such as considering "North Africa" including Egypt, as completely disconnected from the rest of the continent of Africa. Just. Because. Where only "sub-Saharan Africa" is considered "Africa".
Lettuce Be
(2,336 posts)These headlines are always misleading -- world wheat shortage. No, not the entire world, but many countries, yes. If you like to bake, your wheat needs are going to be just fine. Assuming of course we don't get some new horrible wheat killing thing here in the USA. Anything is possible.
muriel_volestrangler
(101,154 posts)It's so insular. Do you really want Americans to be ignorant of world problems? If not, then why tell a DUer to stop posting world news?
NickB79
(19,113 posts)Sorry that you can't be bothered to care about the deaths of people beyond the US border.
imavoter
(646 posts)with the Ukraine invasion.
My husband passed last August, so
It's just me. I don't need a lot.
But then on the other hand, although my job
is stable. I obviously realize one can't know what might
happen and to be prepared.
Other things will be more expensive like pet food and meats because of feed requirements.
I just spent $400 on items to freeze. Except the pet foods
and cat litter, of course. I can't imagine what families are doing right now. It must be scary.
Marthe48
(16,692 posts)for curbside pickup today. I wanted to get 2 5 lb. bags of unbleached flour. I bake a loaf of bread for myself about every 10 days, and I bake cookies at Christmas. While I was ordering, I saw that the app had made the flour for delivery, so I deleted it, and the app then said it wasn't available for pickup. So I ordered 2 bags of bleached flour. When I picked up my order, I had 2 bags of unbleached and 2 bags of bleached flour. By accident, I have enough flour to last the rest of the year. If there is a shortage in my area, I'll share my accidental bounty.