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Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast (538 analysis)
New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog:
The question I posed yesterday — does Newt Gingrich have momentum in South Carolina? — now appears to have an unambiguous answer. Yes, Mr. Gingrich does have momentum — and a lot of it.
...snip...
The FiveThirtyEight forecast model, trying to evaluate all of this information as objectively as it can, sees substantial momentum for Mr. Gingrich in South Carolina, giving him at least as strong a tailwind as Rick Santorum had in the closing days of the campaign in Iowa.
The model now shows a virtual tie in the race, with Mr. Gingrich projected to get 34 percent of the vote and Mr. Romney 33.6 percent and each candidate having about a 50 percent chance of winning.
...snip...
The FiveThirtyEight forecast model, trying to evaluate all of this information as objectively as it can, sees substantial momentum for Mr. Gingrich in South Carolina, giving him at least as strong a tailwind as Rick Santorum had in the closing days of the campaign in Iowa.
The model now shows a virtual tie in the race, with Mr. Gingrich projected to get 34 percent of the vote and Mr. Romney 33.6 percent and each candidate having about a 50 percent chance of winning.
I predict, "no more Mr. Nice Moneybags" in tonight's debate...
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