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August jobs report: U.S. payrolls grew by 315,000 last month
Source: Yahoo! Finance
The U.S. labor market grew as expected in August as more people entering the workforce pushed the unemployment rate higher last month. Here are the highlights from the Labor Department's monthly jobs report released Friday, compared to consensus estimates from Bloomberg.
Non-farm payrolls: 315,000 vs. +298,000 expected Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.4% expected Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.2% vs. +5.3% expected
The labor force participation rate in August also registered a notable uptick, to 62.4% from 62.1% the prior month, matching the highest level since March 2020.
Friday's report showed a modest revision to July's payroll growth, with the BLS now estimating 526,000 jobs were created last month, down from the 528,000 previously reported. Between revisions to June and July's figures, there were 107,000 fewer jobs created over those months than initially estimated. Still, job gains over the last three months have averaged 378,000. In 2019, average monthly job gains stood at 164,000.
Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/august-jobs-report-september-2-2022-220121393.html
Breaking now...
Stand by for the deep dives and original sources of the data from DU's dedicated economy watchers. TGIF!
Now being updated. Previous update -
The U.S. labor market eased in August despite this summer's series of larger-than-anticipated rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to cool economic growth in its fight against inflation.
Here are highlights from the latest monthly jobs report from the Labor Department released Friday, compared to consensus estimates from Bloomberg.
Last month's report marked a cooldown from the prior month, which saw payrolls rise by a revised 526,000 jobs. Still, the figure reflects strong hiring on a historical basis, with monthly payroll gains averaging about 164,000 per month in 2019 prior to the pandemic.
The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.7% in August from 3.5% the prior month. The labor force participation also edged marginally higher last month, rising to 62.4% from 62.1% in July. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings cooled slightly to 0.3% on a monthly basis, lower than July's wage gains of 0.4%. On an annual basis, earnings year-over-year inched down to 5.2%, compared to 5.3% the prior month.
Here are highlights from the latest monthly jobs report from the Labor Department released Friday, compared to consensus estimates from Bloomberg.
Non-farm payrolls: 315,000 vs. +298,000 expected Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.4% expected Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.2% vs. +5.3% expected
Last month's report marked a cooldown from the prior month, which saw payrolls rise by a revised 526,000 jobs. Still, the figure reflects strong hiring on a historical basis, with monthly payroll gains averaging about 164,000 per month in 2019 prior to the pandemic.
The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 3.7% in August from 3.5% the prior month. The labor force participation also edged marginally higher last month, rising to 62.4% from 62.1% in July. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings cooled slightly to 0.3% on a monthly basis, lower than July's wage gains of 0.4%. On an annual basis, earnings year-over-year inched down to 5.2%, compared to 5.3% the prior month.
Original article -
The U.S. labor market remained tight in August despite this summer's series of larger-than-anticipated rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to cool economic growth in its fight against inflation.
Here are highlights from the latest monthly jobs report from the Labor Department released Friday, compared to consensus estimates from Bloomberg.
This post is breaking. Please check back for updates.
Here are highlights from the latest monthly jobs report from the Labor Department released Friday, compared to consensus estimates from Bloomberg.
Non-farm payrolls: 315,000 vs. +298,000 expected Unemployment rate: 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.4% expected Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.2% vs. +5.3% expected
This post is breaking. Please check back for updates.
36 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
= new reply since forum marked as read
and had this up at 8:31 am EDT. 
Good morning!
Their original "assumption" -
A cooling job market is expected as recession fears grow.
Government data on Friday will show whether the job market’s remarkable resilience continued in August, or whether employers have begun to pull back as interest rates rise and recession fears mount.
Forecasters surveyed by FactSet expect the Labor Department to report that U.S. employers added about 300,000 jobs last month, well below July’s gain of 528,000. But economists had also expected a slowdown in July and were surprised when job growth accelerated. Other indicators suggest the job market remains strong: Job openings rose in July, to 11.2 million, and filings for unemployment benefits have edged down in recent weeks.
(snip)
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/02/business/jobs-report-august-economy/a-cooling-job-market-is-expected-as-recession-fears-grow?smid=url-share
Government data on Friday will show whether the job market’s remarkable resilience continued in August, or whether employers have begun to pull back as interest rates rise and recession fears mount.
Forecasters surveyed by FactSet expect the Labor Department to report that U.S. employers added about 300,000 jobs last month, well below July’s gain of 528,000. But economists had also expected a slowdown in July and were surprised when job growth accelerated. Other indicators suggest the job market remains strong: Job openings rose in July, to 11.2 million, and filings for unemployment benefits have edged down in recent weeks.
(snip)
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/02/business/jobs-report-august-economy/a-cooling-job-market-is-expected-as-recession-fears-grow?smid=url-share
And their "update" -
Job growth stayed solid in August, a sign that higher interest rates were not crushing the labor market.
Monthly change in jobs
Data is seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics By Ella Koeze
Job growth slowed in August but stayed solid, suggesting that rising interest rates and fear of a possible recession are leading companies to pull back on hiring — but that the labor market recovery remains resilient.
Employers added 315,000 jobs last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said Friday. That was down from 526,000 in July, though it still represented a strong pace of growth. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent.
Economists have been saying for months that job growth was likely to slow as the economy comes down from last year’s vaccine-fueled boom and as higher borrowing costs make it harder for businesses to expand. Instead, the labor market remained red hot even as other parts of the economy, such as the housing market, turned sharply lower. The data released Friday indicated the long-delayed slowdown may finally have begun.
Ordinarily, such a slowdown would be a worrying sign, especially at a time when forecasters are warning of a possible recession. But in the up-is-down world of the late-pandemic economy, a modest pullback in job growth could actually be good news, albeit not for everyone.
(snip)
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/02/business/jobs-report-august-economy/a-cooling-job-market-is-expected-as-recession-fears-grow?smid=url-share
Monthly change in jobs
Data is seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics By Ella Koeze
Job growth slowed in August but stayed solid, suggesting that rising interest rates and fear of a possible recession are leading companies to pull back on hiring — but that the labor market recovery remains resilient.
Employers added 315,000 jobs last month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Labor Department said Friday. That was down from 526,000 in July, though it still represented a strong pace of growth. The unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent.
Economists have been saying for months that job growth was likely to slow as the economy comes down from last year’s vaccine-fueled boom and as higher borrowing costs make it harder for businesses to expand. Instead, the labor market remained red hot even as other parts of the economy, such as the housing market, turned sharply lower. The data released Friday indicated the long-delayed slowdown may finally have begun.
Ordinarily, such a slowdown would be a worrying sign, especially at a time when forecasters are warning of a possible recession. But in the up-is-down world of the late-pandemic economy, a modest pullback in job growth could actually be good news, albeit not for everyone.
(snip)
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/02/business/jobs-report-august-economy/a-cooling-job-market-is-expected-as-recession-fears-grow?smid=url-share
Watch for conservative tears as they complain about this
Remember back during Obama's second term, when there had been 5 straight years of job growth, conservatives were always crying about the Labor Force Participation Rate. I guess it was all they had to cling to. Then, during the Trump years, not a peep about it, even though it was pretty much the same as it was during the Obama years.
Now, they don't even have THAT, as it went up last month! O the humanity!! 
Revisions Coming?
If, as seems likely, the Labor Department is overstating job gains, when will the government correct the figures? Maybe in a year. Every August, the Labor Department announces preliminary revisions to a full year of data through the prior March. But the divergence between strong payroll growth and the soft tax and household survey data only began in April or May.
If, as seems likely, the Labor Department is overstating job gains, when will the government correct the figures? Maybe in a year. Every August, the Labor Department announces preliminary revisions to a full year of data through the prior March. But the divergence between strong payroll growth and the soft tax and household survey data only began in April or May.
Plus what you mention in your reply title -
The big slowdown in withholding growth that IBD talks about is from May thru August 26
And what happened between "May and August" ?
A lot of school districts had to try to find temps for everything the past year - teachers, bus drivers, cafeteria staff, maintenance staff, etc.
I know way back in the day, which I know is still the case here in Philly, subs were paid at a fixed per-diem rate (and were on-call), and then after x number of days of doing that (didn't have to be consecutive days), the daily pay would increase. All the wage taxes were withheld and that work did actually count towards SS work hours. But then come the end of the school year? The end. At least until September.
I know with the covid nightmare hitting the schools and teachers/students being quarantined and out of school for days, there had to be some subs/temp aides brought in to backfill the absences. This year is probably the first full year when most schools came back for "in person" learning for most of the school year.
The previous year, the schools were slowly trickling back to "in person" in the spring, and of course the year before that (initial year of the pandemic), much of it was "virtual" or "hybrid", so all the support staff were furloughed.
and they played a Bloomberg business report that included some remarks about "the great resignation" and specifically noted "teachers" (and had reported on a June AFT survey). Doing a quick search, I found a Bloomberg article that came out this morning -
America's Broken Education System
Part I: Why Teachers Are Quitting
By Nic Cuerolo, Olivia Rockeman, and Ella Ceron
September 2, 2022 at 5:00 AM EDT
(snip)
For decades, America’s educators have said they would’ve abandoned the job long ago were it not for their devotion to their students. But after a demanding and demoralizing two years that included Zoom schooling, culture wars, and shootings, those threats have finally become real. A Gallup Poll in February showed that K-12 educators were the most burned-out segment of the US labor force.
Now teachers are walking out by the hundreds of thousands, vowing never to return. A study by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in March found that 44% of public schools reported teaching vacancies. By LinkedIn’s calculations, the number of teachers who quit in June was almost 41% higher than a year earlier.
Although some school districts managed to fill their vacancies to start the school year, many in rural areas and those serving low-income families are still having trouble doing so. In some cases, schools are even allowing veterans and other noncredentialed workers to step in as teachers and, in extreme cases, reducing the school week to four days.
(snip)
It’s only going to get worse. Almost 2 in 5 teachers plan to quit in the next two years, according to a June survey of members of the American Federation of Teachers union. Chief among the reasons are salaries that haven’t kept up with inflation, student behavioral problems that have gotten worse during the pandemic, and a lack of respect as schools have become the latest political battleground. A report from the National Education Association found that starting salaries averaged $41,770 for the 2020-21 school year, a 4% decrease from the prior year when adjusted for inflation and the lowest in at least a decade.
(snip)
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-america-teachers-great-resignation/
Part I: Why Teachers Are Quitting
By Nic Cuerolo, Olivia Rockeman, and Ella Ceron
September 2, 2022 at 5:00 AM EDT
(snip)
For decades, America’s educators have said they would’ve abandoned the job long ago were it not for their devotion to their students. But after a demanding and demoralizing two years that included Zoom schooling, culture wars, and shootings, those threats have finally become real. A Gallup Poll in February showed that K-12 educators were the most burned-out segment of the US labor force.
Now teachers are walking out by the hundreds of thousands, vowing never to return. A study by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) in March found that 44% of public schools reported teaching vacancies. By LinkedIn’s calculations, the number of teachers who quit in June was almost 41% higher than a year earlier.
Although some school districts managed to fill their vacancies to start the school year, many in rural areas and those serving low-income families are still having trouble doing so. In some cases, schools are even allowing veterans and other noncredentialed workers to step in as teachers and, in extreme cases, reducing the school week to four days.
(snip)
It’s only going to get worse. Almost 2 in 5 teachers plan to quit in the next two years, according to a June survey of members of the American Federation of Teachers union. Chief among the reasons are salaries that haven’t kept up with inflation, student behavioral problems that have gotten worse during the pandemic, and a lack of respect as schools have become the latest political battleground. A report from the National Education Association found that starting salaries averaged $41,770 for the 2020-21 school year, a 4% decrease from the prior year when adjusted for inflation and the lowest in at least a decade.
(snip)
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2022-america-teachers-great-resignation/
The above is talks about educators "walking out by the hundreds of thousands". That actually sounds significant to me!
And sorry you found yourself in the weeds stuck with monthly tabulations.
I think many who left were actually retiring, and if they did get "bored" might be doing more ad-hoc type of work.
Decades ago there were "warnings" about boomers going out at 65 (and then 66, and then 67), and that was supposed to "start" around 2011, but those warnings never panned out... until the pandemic hit as boomers were staying in the workplace longer than expected!
Trendbook Excerpt: Baby Boomers’ Retirement May Create a Labor Shortage
This is an excerpt from the Equity and Justice Outlook chapter in the 2018-2019 NAIS Trendbook.
By Caroline G. Blackwell and Amada Torres
About a quarter of today’s workforce are part of the 74-million strong baby-boom generation. The oldest boomers turned 72 in 2018, and the youngest are in their early 50s. About 41 million are still working.
These aging trends will affect K-12 education. In 2011, the U.S. Department of Education predicted that 1.6 million teachers would retire within the decade. Researchers have been discussing teacher shortages across the country, particularly in subjects such as special education, mathematics, science, and bilingual/English learner education and in locales with lower wages and poorer working conditions.
Projections of shortages are based on declines in enrollment in teacher education programs, student enrollment growth, efforts to reduce student-teacher ratios, and the ongoing high attrition rates among teachers. Around the country, states are also reporting shortages in professional roles outside the classroom. School counselors, speech and language pathologists, librarians, social workers, and general administrators are among the educators in short supply.
However, all types of schools may not be affected in the same way. On average, teachers at charter schools tend to be younger (37.4 years old) than their counterparts in traditional public schools (42.6 years old) and in private schools (43.8 years old). Principals tend to be older on average than the teaching workforce, and the average age for private school principals (51.7 years) is higher than for public school principals (48 years).
(snip)
https://www.nais.org/articles/pages/books/trendbook-excerpt-baby-boomers-retirement-may-create-a-labor-shortage/
This is an excerpt from the Equity and Justice Outlook chapter in the 2018-2019 NAIS Trendbook.
By Caroline G. Blackwell and Amada Torres
About a quarter of today’s workforce are part of the 74-million strong baby-boom generation. The oldest boomers turned 72 in 2018, and the youngest are in their early 50s. About 41 million are still working.
These aging trends will affect K-12 education. In 2011, the U.S. Department of Education predicted that 1.6 million teachers would retire within the decade. Researchers have been discussing teacher shortages across the country, particularly in subjects such as special education, mathematics, science, and bilingual/English learner education and in locales with lower wages and poorer working conditions.
Projections of shortages are based on declines in enrollment in teacher education programs, student enrollment growth, efforts to reduce student-teacher ratios, and the ongoing high attrition rates among teachers. Around the country, states are also reporting shortages in professional roles outside the classroom. School counselors, speech and language pathologists, librarians, social workers, and general administrators are among the educators in short supply.
However, all types of schools may not be affected in the same way. On average, teachers at charter schools tend to be younger (37.4 years old) than their counterparts in traditional public schools (42.6 years old) and in private schools (43.8 years old). Principals tend to be older on average than the teaching workforce, and the average age for private school principals (51.7 years) is higher than for public school principals (48 years).
(snip)
https://www.nais.org/articles/pages/books/trendbook-excerpt-baby-boomers-retirement-may-create-a-labor-shortage/
I will say that one must remember that there were also several "stimulus" bills that were passed that are funding all sorts of things including "infrastructure" projects, and the way this year has gone with the climate extremes of flooding and wildfires, there's a market for cleanup and rebuilding.
So I think for now, there is back-filling/re-hiring of the jobs lost due to the pandemic and supply chain issues (e.g., you had car manufacturers who had to shut down plants and/or do temp furloughs due to a lack of parts, including due to those ever-elusive microchips), plus you have the creation of "new" jobs in healthcare support (testing, vaccinations, manufacturing of new drugs and biologics, etc). I know the sector reporting is sortof generic, but some of these things may be buried in those categories.
Earlier they seemed upbeat and figuring on a more modest rate hike (instead of a 0.75%). I still think it will be 0.5%.
At least oil (WTI) closed a few dollars below $90/bbl but then Russia is toying with Nordstream 1.
And I hear ya about the grand-nieces and nephews. But kids can be resilient. They adapt to the environment around them because that's all they know. Meanwhile we are continually comparing with "what it used to be like", and in that case, time seems to exaggerate and distort that memory.
