Inflation rose 0.1% in August even with sharp drop in gas prices

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: CNBC

ECONOMY

Inflation rose 0.1% in August even with sharp drop in gas prices

PUBLISHED TUE, SEP 13 2022 * 8:31 AM EDT * UPDATED 7 MIN AGO
Jeff Cox
@JEFF.COX.7528
https://facebook.com/jeff.cox.7528
@JEFFCOXCNBCCOM
https://twitter.com/JeffCoxCNBCcom

Inflation rose more than expected in August even as gas prices helped give consumers a little bit of a break, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which tracks a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.1% for the month and 8.3% over the past year. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, CPI rose 0.6% from July and 6.3% from the same month in 2021.

Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates. The respective year-over-year estimates were 8% and 6%.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/inflation-rose-0point1percent-in-august-even-with-sharp-drop-in-gas-prices.html

---

News article to follow, once one is posted.

From 8:00 a.m., here is an update of the article Alexandra Semenova had up yesterday afternoon. The earlier one is in the Economy group.

Stocks rally to start the week as investors await CPI report
https://www.democraticunderground.com/111694142

-- -- -- -- -- -- --

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-september-13-2022-090235060.html

Yahoo Finance
Stock market news live updates: Stock futures edge higher with all eyes on CPI print

Alexandra Semenova · Reporter
Tue, September 13, 2022 at 8:00 AM · 3 min read

U.S. stock futures ascended Tuesday as investors prepared for a highly-anticipated inflation reading. ... Futures tied to the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite each gained roughly 0.7% in pre-market trading. Dow futures jumped 200 points, or roughly 0.6%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its August Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 a.m. ET. Data is expected to show inflation rose at an annual pace of 8.1% last month, according to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg. If realized, the reading would mark the second-straight moderation in prices from four-decade highs reached earlier this year.

Tuesday's print is likely to be a make-or-break moment for the recent bounce back for equity markets. On Monday, the S&P 500's 1% gain across all 11 sectors helped the index notch its largest four-day advance since June, according to Bloomberg data.

The latest gauge on how quickly inflation is rising across the U.S. economy comes one week before Federal Reserve officials are set to convene for their next meeting Sept. 20-21. Market participants are largely anticipating policymakers will deliver a third consecutive 75 basis point interest rate hikes after weeks of hawkish messaging from members of the U.S. central bank.

{snip}

Story continues

[BumRushDaShow]

1. Alexandra is up with the article

Inflation eased in August as CPI rose 8.3%

Alexandra Semenova

Tue, September 13, 2022 at 8:32 AM·1 min read

Inflation eased for a second-straight month in August as consumer prices continue to moderate from four-decade highs reached earlier this year.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August reflected an 8.3% increase over last year and 0.1% increase over the prior month. Economists had expected prices to rise 8.1% over last year and fall 0.1% over last month, according to estimates from Bloomberg.

On a "core" basis, which strips out the volatile food and energy components of the report, prices rose 6.3% over last year and 0.6% over the prior month in August.

Expectations were for a 6.1% annual increase and 0.3% monthly increase in core CPI.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/august-inflation-data-cpi-september-13-211038620.html

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. She must have JUST done that. I'll get the one from the WaPo.

Seconds earlier, she still had the story from 8:00 a.mm. up.

Here you go; from Rachel Leah Siegel. Even the headline in her tweet is outdated. I'll put the article in the OP.

Not good news...August prices up 0.1 percent month over month + 8.3 percent compared to last year

Fed was already widely expected to hike by three-quarters of a percentage point next week

washingtonpost.com
Inflation likely fell again in August, but there’s a long way to go

Link to tweet

Thanks, and good morning.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. Good morning and I was refreshing like mad!

The "headline" appeared on their main page but it took a bit for the actual article at the link to change with the refreshing.

Posted the WaPo one below!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

6. I guess that leaves CNBC. I want a whole bunch of links. NT

[BumRushDaShow]

7. CNBC, CNN, and NYT are up

Inflation rose 0.1% in August even with sharp drop in gas prices

Published Tue, Sep 13 20228:31 AM EDTUpdated 8 Min Ago

Jeff Cox


Inflation rose more than expected in August even as gas prices helped give consumers a little bit of a break, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.

The consumer price index, which tracks a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.1% for the month and 8.3% over the past year. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, CPI rose 0.6% from July and 6.3% from the same month in 2021.

Economists had been expecting headline inflation to fall 0.1% and core to increase 0.3%, according to Dow Jones estimates. The respective year-over-year estimates were 8% and 6%.

This is breaking news. Please check back here for updates.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/13/inflation-rose-0point1percent-in-august-even-with-sharp-drop-in-gas-prices.html

US annual inflation eased last month but remains stubbornly high

By Alicia Wallace, CNN Business
Published 8:37 AM EDT, Tue September 13, 2022

Minneapolis CNN Business — US inflation cooled off in August for the second-straight month but remained stubbornly high, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday. The Consumer Price Index, which measures a basket of consumer goods and services, showed prices were up 8.3% year on year, a slowdown from the 8.5% gain in July and the 9.1% spike in June.

The last time the headline CPI rate declined in consecutive months was the first part of 2020.On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose 0.1% from July. The slower pace of annual price hikes comes alongside a significant drop in gas prices, which have come down from record highs set in June. Core CPI, which strips out the more volatile categories like food and gasoline, measured 6.3% in August, up from 6.2% in July.

Still, inflation remains painfully high for many Americans, especially those with little wiggle room in their monthly budgets. Annual price gains are a far cry from where they were 18 months ago and from the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2%.

“This is a fight we cannot, and will not, walk away from,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last week, underscoring the central bank’s laser focus on hitting its 2% goal.

(snip)

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/13/economy/august-cpi-inflation/index.html

Inflation came in faster than expected in August even as gas prices fell.


Fresh inflation data released on Tuesday showed that price gains did not moderate as much as anticipated in August, unwelcome news for the Biden administration and the Federal Reserve and a sign of the extent to which fast-climbing costs continue to plague consumers.

For policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who have been raising interest rates to slow the economy and try to tame recent rapid inflation, the data is further evidence that price increases have yet to show clear signs of coming back under control, even as central bankers wage a policy campaign to slow the economy and tamp down inflationary pressures.

Prices rose 8.3 percent from a year earlier, a rapid pace of increase for consumers and not as much of a slowdown as economists had expected, even as gas prices dropped and weighed on the overall numbers. At the same time, so-called core inflation re-accelerated notably in August. That measure strips out volatile food and fuel prices to give a better sense of underlying trends, and it tracks products like clothing and furniture along with an array of services.

The core gauge climbed by 6.3 percent in the year through August, compared with 5.9 percent in July. That pickup came partly because the August price gains are being measured against a relatively weak reading from the same month in 2021. When inflation is measured against a lower year-ago number, or “base,” it tends to appear faster.

(snip)

— Jeanna Smialek

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/09/13/business/inflation-cpi-report/inflation-cpi-federal-reserve?smid=url-share

[mathematic]

3. This is a very bad report with core rising 0.6%

Expected was -0.1% headline and 0.3% core and everybody was thinking it might even be better than that. So this is a very negative surprise. The Fed will continue to raise rates to try to get core inflation under control.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. WaPo

Inflation persists as prices rose again in August compared to July

By Rachel Siegel
Updated September 13, 2022 at 8:35 a.m. EDT|Published September 13, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. EDT


Consumer prices in August climbed 0.1 percent compared to the month before, despite falling costs for gas and energy. A number of economists had been hopeful that Tuesday’s release would show that inflation is finally cooling, but a new government report shows price increases remain stubbornly high.

Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed August prices rose 8.3 percent compared to the year before. That’s down from the 8.5 percent notched in July, and 9.1 percent from June. And while those measures are dangerously above normal levels, policymakers, economists and the American public are eager for consistent signs that inflation peaked this summer after soaring to the highest level in 40 years.

Inflation is the economy’s biggest problem, and its toll falls hardest on vulnerable families with little room to absorb higher costs for rent, groceries and everything in between. The Federal Reserve has been fighting inflation by raising interest rates, which are designed to slow down the economy by making all kinds of investments and loans — from mortgages to auto loans to hiring — more expensive.

The Fed’s goal is to use higher rates to dampen demand in the economy, especially since its tools can’t do anything to fix issues like supply chain logjams, worker shortages or the war in Ukraine. “There’s a wider story than just ‘prices falling,’ ” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “That’s demand, and that’s the object of policy right there.”

(snip)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/09/13/inflation-cpi-august-fed/

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. As I have been known to say:

CPI for all items rises 0.1% in August as shelter and food increase, gasoline falls

In August, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 8.3 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.6 percent in August (SA); up 6.3 percent over the year (NSA).

Economic News Release USDL-22-1834

Consumer Price Index Summary
Transmission of material in this release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Tuesday, September 13, 2022

Technical information: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cpi
Media Contact: [phone] * [e-mail]

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - AUGUST 2022

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the broad-based monthly all items increase. These increases were mostly offset by a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 5.0 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the electricity and natural gas indexes increased.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July. The indexes for shelter, medical care, household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and education were among those that increased over the month. There were some indexes that declined in August, including those for airline fares, communication, and used cars and trucks.

The all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller figure than the 8.5-percent increase for the period ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 23.8 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller increase than the 32.9-percent increase for the period ending July. The food index increased 11.4 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979.

{snip}
_______________
The Consumer Price Index for September 2022 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, October 13, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

{snip}

Contact Information

For additional information about the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi or contact the CPI Information and Analysis Section at 202-691-7000 or [e-mail].

For additional information on seasonal adjustment in the CPI visit www.bls.gov/cpi/seasonal-adjustment/home.htm or contact the CPI seasonal adjustment section at 202-691-6968 or [e-mail].

If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access telecommunications relay services.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. TWSJ.: U.S. inflation eased to 8.3% in August as gasoline prices cooled

U.S. inflation eased to 8.3% in August as gasoline prices cooled

wsj.com
U.S. Inflation Eased to 8.3% in August
The pace of U.S. consumer price increases moderated somewhat in August but remained close to a four-decade high.

Link to tweet

[Johnny2X2X]

10. Inflation is going down

8.1% was expected, we just missed that at 8.3%. This is good news even though it wasn't as good as expected.

0.1% increase month over month would be 1.2% for a year, which is below the Fed's goal.

[FBaggins]

13. Sorry... there's no way to spin this as good news

0.1% increase month over month would be 1.2% for a year, which is below the Fed's goal.

The Fed cares about core inflation, which was .6% m/m (7.2% if annualized) which is dramatically above their goal or expectations. Y/y even provides a possible rebuttal to a claim that inflation is going down.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. Reuters and AP

September 13, 2022 8:44 AM EDT
Last Updated 4 min ago
Monthly U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly rise in August; core inflation picks up

Reuters

WASHINGTON, Sept 13 (Reuters) - Monthly U.S consumer prices unexpectedly rose in August as declining gasoline prices were offset by gains in the costs of rent and food, giving cover for the Federal Reserve to deliver another hefty interest rate increase next Wednesday. The consumer price index gained 0.1% last month after being unchanged in July, the Labor Department said on Tuesday.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the CPI dipping 0.1%. In the 12 months through August, the CPI increased 8.3%. That was deceleration from the July's 8.5% rise. The annual CPI peaked at 9.1% in June, which was the biggest gain since November 1981.

Overall inflation is slowing as goods prices retreat after surging earlier this year amid a loosening of bottlenecks in global supply chains and a shift in spending back to services.

U.S. gasoline prices have plunged from an average record high above $5 per gallon in June, according to data from AAA. They were averaging $3.707 per gallon on Tuesday.

(snip)

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/monthly-us-consumer-prices-unexpectedly-rise-august-core-inflation-picks-up-2022-09-13/

US inflation falls for 2nd straight month on lower gas costs


By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER 16 minutes ago


WASHINGTON (AP) — Sharply lower prices for gas and cheaper used cars slowed U.S. inflation in August for a second straight month, though many other items rose in price, indicating that inflation remains a heavy burden for American households. Consumer prices surged 8.3% in August compared with a year earlier, the government said Tuesday.

Though still painfully high, that was down from an 8.5% jump in July and a four-decade high of 9.1% in June. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%, after a flat reading in July. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core prices jumped 0.6% from July to August, higher than many economists had expected and a sign of inflation’s persistence.

Inflation remains far higher than many Americans have ever experienced and is keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve, the agency tasked with keeping prices stable. The Fed is expected to announce another big increase in its benchmark interest rate next week, which will lead to higher costs for many consumer and business loans.

Inflation has escalated families’ grocery bills, rents and utility costs, among other expenses, inflicting hardships on many households and deepening gloom about the economy despite strong job growth and low unemployment.

(snip)

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-economy-prices-f2270f4c6ac55c084108d57cc1aec53a?taid=63207b77ed47e2000150822d

[mahatmakanejeeves]

12. Rachel Leah Siegel at the WaPo, updated at 8:49:

ECONOMY

Rising food and housing costs pushed inflation higher in August

Falling gas prices weren’t enough to compensate for a bump in other products that are a core part of many Americans’ budgets.

By Rachel Siegel
Updated September 13, 2022 at 8:49 a.m. EDT | Published September 13, 2022 at 6:00 a.m. EDT

Consumer prices in August climbed 0.1 percent compared to the month before, despite falling costs for gas and energy. A number of economists had been hopeful that Tuesday’s release would show that inflation is finally cooling, but a new government report showed price increases remain stubbornly high, especially for food and housing.

Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed August prices rose 8.3 percent compared to the year before. That’s down from the 8.5 percent notched in July, and 9.1 percent from June but still higher than expected given the sharp decrease in gasoline prices in recent weeks.

Policymakers, economists and the American public are eager for consistent signs that inflation peaked this summer after soaring to the highest level in 40 years.

The monthly report released Tuesday, known as the consumer price index, did not offer much reassurance. The food index rose 11.4 percent over the past year, the largest 12-month increase since May 1979. Food prices were up 0.8 percent just in the past month. Costs for housing, medical care, new cars and household furnishings were all up compared to the month before.

{snip}

By Rachel Siegel
Rachel Siegel is an economics reporter covering the Federal Reserve. She previously covered breaking news for the Post's financial section and local politics for the Post's Metro desk. Before joining the Post in June 2017, Rachel contributed to The Marshall Project and The Dallas Morning News. Twitter https://twitter.com/rachsieg

[JohnSJ]

14. Market will assume that the fed will increase interest rates and 3/4% with this news. What won't

be reported though is that interest rates are still low especially compared to the 70's

Even though gasoline prices are lower, it takes time to work into the system.

[brooklynite]

15. Dow down 500 on inflation news

Last edited Tue Sep 13, 2022, 10:36 AM - Edit history (1)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

16. Yikes. Thanks. NT

Last edited Tue Sep 13, 2022, 10:40 AM - Edit history (1)

[twodogsbarking]

17. Are gas and food prices included in the inflation calculation?

[progree]

19. Food and energy are included in the CPI, but not in the Core CPI. Table of the pieces:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
1 mo   12 months   Item
+0.6%   +6.3%     Core CPI: Everything* except food and energy
+0.8%   +11.4%   Food
-5.0%,   +23.8%   Energy
----------------------------------------
+0.1%   +8.3%     CPI: Everything*


*Everything is almost everything except house prices. It does include rent and owners' equivalent rent (they ask homeowners how much they think they could rent their houses for). They consider buying a house an investment rather than a consumption item -- an increase in housing prices help owners and hurt buyers.

Edit: I had August energy at -0.5%. I corrected it to -5.0%.

[twodogsbarking]

20. Thanks. Great explanation. The government would make it twelve pages and

I still wouldn't understand.

[mnhtnbb]

18. The bad news is being reflected in the stock market

and the good news is--for us on Social Security with federal pensions--we may see a benefits increase of 8%+ next year. We can only hope that doesn't push us into a higher category for Medicare withholding along with premium increases for Medicare.

Sigh.

[Bengus81]

21. Let's see how they weasel out of it..........

Or.....do like last year,give people a SS raise and then take most of it away in a Medicare premium increase.

[Marthe48]

22. Maybe prices rose to what the market will bear

and after the gougers saw the consumers decided they didn't want to afford even higher costs, stopped buying. So the gougers seeing if creeping up slowly will get them a few dollars more.

[GreenWave]

23. What role do Trump loving billionaires play in this?

[elleng]

24. so the markets go NUTS!

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/business/markets-inflation-stocks.html

[mahatmakanejeeves]

25. Stocks tank after higher-than-expected CPI report

Yahoo Finance

Stock market news live updates: Stocks tank after higher-than-expected CPI report

Alexandra Semenova · Reporter
Tue, September 13, 2022 at 2:35 PM · 3 min read

U.S. stocks nosedived Tuesday after a surprising inflation report showed prices rose more than expected last month.

Technology stocks led the way down, with the Nasdaq Composite plunging 4.2%. The S&P 500 sank 3.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average erased nearly 1,000 points, or 3%.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August early Tuesday, which showed prices rose 8.3% over the prior year and 0.1% over the prior month. Economists had expected an 8.1% increase in inflation over last year and a decline of 0.1% over the prior month.

This reading marks some moderation in price increases — which reached four-decade highs earlier this year — but this smaller-than-expected decline likely clinches another 0.75% rate hike from the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting next week.

{snip}

[progree]

26. The August CPI report compared to the June report - Table Of Pieces

I compare June to August to better show what it was at the peak compared to now.
(The July CPI was +0.0% & 12 months: +8.5%; The Core CPI was +0.3% & 12 months: +5.9%)

June CPI report released July 13:
https://web.archive.org/web/20220731022612/https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

The August CPI report released today, September 13:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

June CPI
1 mo   12 months   Item
+0.7%   +5.9%     Core CPI: Everything* except food and energy
+1.0%   +10.4%   Food
+7.5%   +41.6%   Energy
----------------------------------------
+1.3%   +9.1%     CPI: Everything*

August CPI
1 mo    12 months    Item
+0.6%   +6.3%     Core CPI: Everything* except food and energy
+0.8%   +11.4%   Food
-5.0%   +23.8%   Energy
----------------------------------------
+0.1%   +8.3%     CPI: Everything*

When I started, I thought August would look quite a bit better than June. Energy and the total CPI looks better, a lot better. But everything else looks worse (food and the core CPI).

*Everything is almost everything except house prices. It does include rent and owners' equivalent rent (they ask homeowners how much they think they could rent their houses for). They consider buying a house an investment rather than a consumption item -- an increase in housing prices help owners and hurt buyers.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

27. Thanks for doing that. BLS has links to the old reports.

Archived News Releases

Consumer Price Index Archived News Releases

[NowsTheTime]

28. Just wonder about why so many blame the current administration for inflation?

The Fed has kept interest rates so low for so long (2009 financial crisis) in fact they stimulated for years and years.

So factors come into play that causes inflation, and the guy who's been in White House for 1.5 years must be at fault.

Do they really think Republicans will have the magic pill to make go away quickly?