MAYHEM AHEAD: Ex-GOP Chair Says Chances Of Open Convention '50-50'

[onehandle]

TAMPA, Fla. -- Michael Steele, the former Republican national chairman who oversaw the writing of the party's nominating rules in 2010, told The Huffington Post Saturday night that the chances of an open -- that is, undecided -- GOP convention in Florida next August are now "50-50" after Newt Gingrich's victory in South Carolina.

"It's a real possibility," Steele told HuffPost. "Right now I'd say it's 50-50. The base wants its chance to have their say. They aren't going to want it to end early, before they get their chance, which means that the process could go all the way to Tampa."

And if it does, Steele says, the result will not be an unpalatable anti-democratic display of insider deal-making, but rather an advertisement for the ideological and grassroots input of the party.

"You would see the people who had the influence to begin with -- the Tea Party, the social conservatives, you name it, hashing it out right in front of us all. I think that is good."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/21/republican-convention-mitt-romney-south-carolina-primary_n_1221350.html

[mrs_p]

1. I think that is good as well

Nothing like a fight to expose one's true qualities.

[mfcorey1]

2. Is that the way they pushed Micheal out of the Chairmanship of the Party?

[geckosfeet]

3. Like the douche bag knows or has any influence. Just being theatrical - it's reality tv.

Just being theatrical - it's just more reality tv titillation. Come watch the fight!

[EFerrari]

10. It's PR for the convention. Book your room today.

[Orangepeel]

4. I wouldn't believe Steele if he told me my mother loved me

He doesn't know anything about anything.

[BiggJawn]

5. He's right.

The Kingmakers will let Newt and Romney fight it out on the stage like Rock-Em Sock-Em robots then either Christie or Daniels will be nominated from the floor by acclamation.

Delegates will start chanting "Chris!" or "Mitch!" while Newt is pontificating on his vision of a Murrika where Liberals are hunted like Coyotes, drowning him out until he loses his shit and treats us to the best meltdown ever seen on TV.

[KamaAina]

27. Or Jeb!

[99th_Monkey]

49. Jeb - the Dark Horse Bush stampede is on.

Sorry, I really didn't want to go there. honest.

[CanonRay]

6. My wife the pundit predicted a brokered convention last October.

I am not worhty...I am not worthy...

[DCBob]

7. Steele is an idiot. I just dont see how this happens.

One or the other.. Newt or Willard will win Florida. Whoever wins there will have tremendous momentum and will likely run the table. How can they have a brokered convention if one candidate has the required number of delegates?

[Pab Sungenis]

25. Simple.

Half the delegates are going to be picked in winner-take-all elections after April 1st. Before that most races are proportional. (Florida is an outlier.) This was set up to prevent another early winner like McCain.

Right now Gingrich has 23 delegates (including Perry's). Romney has 21 (including Huntsman's). Santorum has 13, Ron Paul has 3.

Ron Paul might just win the Virginia primary if Newt and Santorum voters pick him to protest their guy being off the ballot, and to keep Romney from benefiting too much from their absence. That would give him incentive to not drop out of the race, and he will continue to pick up delegates in the races he's in, even if he has a poor showing.

Santorum will also continue to pick up delegates. If he stays in through Super Tuesday he will pick up a fair number, keeping either Newt or Mitt from getting the majority of the delegates up for grabs that day.

After that, it all depends on what Santorum does. If he stays in the race, it will hand the nomination to Mitt. If he pulls out and backs Gingrich, then it will be a hard slog between two candidates, neither of whom is in a position to come close to a clean sweep of the post-April races. Romney will win California, Newt will win Texas. Who the hell knows what New York might do; their teahadists might hand it to Newt like they handed the Gubernatorial nomination to Paladino. Pennsylvania is also tea-infected so they're a toss-up. Most of the smaller ones and Southern ones will go to Newt.

And who knows, Newt might flame out and Santorum take over the teahadist vote. That would really confuse things.

What has to happen for a brokered convention right now is for Newt to maintain his current lead, Santorum to stay through Super Tuesday then drop out before April 1st and then back Newt, and for Romney to not have a strong surge if Newt flames out after Santorum drops out.

That's why the odds are about 50-50.

[DCBob]

26. I wouldnt call that simple but yes plausible.

Thanks for the detailed explanation. It will be interesting to see how this all turns out.

[SaintPete]

36. Wall Street Journal has different delegate totals

Romney - 33 delegates / 167,279 votes
Gingrich - 25 delegates / 243,153 votes
Santorum - 14 delegates / 102,055 votes
Paul - 4 delegates / 77,993 votes

http://projects.wsj.com/campaign2012/delegates

[Pab Sungenis]

44. I got my numbers from AP

which doesn't count pledged superdelegates. Maybe the WSJ does.

[schmice]

45. Very cogent analysis n/t

[Myrina]

8. Third party, third party, third party!!!

Yes please and many thanks!

[oberliner]

9. I really wish we had the elephant and they had the donkey

Such noble creatures.

[MadLinguist]

29. I know, right? the reputation for long memory

that elephants are said to have. That doesn't seem to line up with GOP mentality.
Elephants seem to be clever and kind, GOPers?

And then donkeys, sure of foot -- does that really line up with Dems we know?
I dont even think the stubborn part holds very well, though it is an excellent match for GOPer values.

[Bucky]

41. Nahh, elephants can't be domesticated (trained, but not domesticated)

Occasionally elephants will go berserk and go about killing whoever in a bloody rampage. Donkeys, on the other hand, stubborn as they are, will rarely get violent and are honest working beasts necessary to the welfare of the economy. The elephant is a luxury, an exotic affectation, a top heavy bizarre gimmick of an animal that's simply too lazy to justify its own care and feeding.

I consider the choice of mascots unapproachable.

[Enrique]

11. that's the way Newt likes his conventions

[wordpix]

12. Battle of the Richies and Stupids, Reality TV award

[Lint Head]

13. Th fight of the century.

[The Wizard]

14. The delegates are proportional

to the number of votes. If there is no clear majority it could lead to a brokered convention opening the door for Jeb Bush, Chris Christie or David Petraeus, all of whom have a better chance of winning a general election over the clown car candidates.

[ewagner]

15. Mr Wizard is correct...

The 1%-ers don't own the party anymore. They can't have it their way and nominate Romney by acclimation. The Party will have to appease the loonies they gave the keys to the asylum to. There will be deal making and brokering in the back rooms and the rubes (Tea Party Crazies) will have to be convinced that Jeb is as crazy as they are and the 1%-ers will know Jeb's still in their pocket with Romney as a VP to do the deal-making....

just a guess but I think THE WIZARD is on the right track.

[denem]

19. Mr Wizard is Dead Wrong

The idea that the rank and file would rally behind a Nominee that None of them had voted for is ludicrous.

[Liberty Belle]

30. Why not? The GOP electorate has been fickle, hopping from candidate to candidate already.

Each time they gravitate toward the next rising star, media reports expose his or her flaws, and it's off to the next one. I could see this happening, though they'd probably have to give away the VP spot and maybe a prominent cabinet post to the two top vote-getters, or agree to adopt a pet policy platform to get consensus.

If many agreed that none of the above from the primary had as good a shot at beating Obama as someone new,

[ewagner]

31. Respectfully disagree denem...

There is no consensus among the radical conservative wing, much less the party itself...the vast majority appears to be voting for anybody but Romney! So I hypothesize that they will accept anybody who ISN'T Romney with the caveat that they have to hate Obama and adopt most of the Tea-Party nonsense.

[The Wizard]

35. Paterno is dead

The Wizard lives .

[schmice]

46. 7 Days in May n/t

[sulphurdunn]

16. Jeb Bush?

You'll know by the amount of press he gets between now and the convention.

[ewagner]

34. Did you notice he refused to endorse

Gingrich?

[sulphurdunn]

39. I doubt he'll be

endorsing anyone for awhile. I don't know when, but I'm certain a Bush family presidential hat trick was in the works even before Junior was anointed.

[JackRiddler]

17. Eh, this prospect is raised every election. Always disappoints.

Hasn't happened in either major party since... what, 1968?

And beware: it's a wild card and can completely re-set things to the benefit of a shiny newcomer who may take months to deconstruct, by which time he's an occupant in the Wrong House.

[onehandle]

18. I don't think it will happen either, but this will be the closest they've come in a long time. nt

[Ter]

47. Closer than we came in 2008?

n/t

[onehandle]

51. Yet to be seen, but I said 'They.'

I predict that someone before the convention will wave the promise of cash under Newt's nose and he will fold like a swinger's murphy bed.

[denem]

20. 'A Shiny Newcomer' foisted on hot and angrys by the Establishment?

That's WWIII Right there.

[sofa king]

24. I've upgraded it to "possible, but still unlikely."

I agree that the GOP is too tightly controlled to allow such a thing to happen, as much as I wish to see it. There are a great many other things that need to go just right for such a thing to happen... but this is one of them. It's a little like watching VCU winning the first round of March Madness and saying to one's self, "they could go all the way...."

I can't help but also observe that if it does go to multiple ballots... or any other unusual outcome where the decisions are reached behind closed doors, the environment becomes perfect for Gingrich, The Great Coercer, to work his schemes.

He'll happily threaten to sink the whole ship if they don't make him captain. Or even better, XO. He set himself up as the Republican dirt-magnet several years ago and likely has an... actionable data resource, he might put it... which could be used threateningly to secure him a quiet spot in the running-mate's position no matter who they choose, where he will await his opportunities....

[former9thward]

37. Since 1952.

All conventions have selected nominees on the first ballot since then.

[JackRiddler]

48. Yes, but in 1968...

the D convention picked a candidate who had not run in the primaries, Humphrey, after the assassination of the primary winner, RFK. That was the last time in either party that the primary and caucus results were not determinative and the convention therefore decided a candidate. (Or so my memory tells me. Anyone care to correct?) That was, of course, of interest for other reasons, mostly bad. Since then all conventions have devolved into pageants and coronations.

[former9thward]

50. You are correct.

Humphrey announced when LBJ withdrew but worked for delegates in non-primary states where party bosses controlled the process. Those were the majority in 1968. Humphrey also used Senators and Governors to run as "favorite-sons" in some of the primaries to get delegates that he eventually would pick up. Some people may not realize that Humphrey had twice as many delegates as RFK did at the time RFK was murdered.

[JackRiddler]

53. Really now? So this means Humphrey would have been forced through...

against RFK, had he not been assassinated? Or would the popular victory of RFK have forced Humphrey to use his delegates in a kingmaker fashion? Do you know what the intent was, prior to the assassination? Back then delegates were not required to vote their initial commitment, sounds like Humphrey had all of what we'd now call the "super delegates."

[former9thward]

54. Johnson, while unpopular, still had control over the party machinery.

And Johnson had no love for the Kennedys. At the time of RFK's death the totals were Hubert Humphrey 561,Robert Kennedy 393, and Eugene McCarthy 258. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_1968

I think if RFK had gone on it would have been a Humphrey - Kennedy ticket (which would probably have beaten Nixon easily).

[grantcart]

42. but every year they don't change from winner take all to proportional primaries

without winner take all its is impossible for a race that has three competitive candidates for anyone to get over 50%.

The second big change is the money. Now all they need is one big sugar daddy to keep their PAC in.

I do agree that the wild card could wash away all of the craziness and start over.

[Mosaic]

21. Mayem for them, Victory for us

Sometimes we forget with all the media noise.

[elleng]

22. Right. WATCH them digging their hole!

Dems not likely to say very much about repugs until there is an actual candidate.

[wiggs]

23. This is what Adelson paid for...a brokered convention. nt

[yellowcanine]

28. Michael Steele??? WTF would he know about it? The man is as dense as a post.

Seriously, he is clueless.

[wandy]

32. Brokered convention? I smell a rat...........

Have you noticed how the repubs allways love 'the new kid in town'? First it was Bachmann, then it was Perry, then it was Cane and now they have rediscovered Newt. Herd anmalis you know.
Have you noticed how untypicaly quiet Karl Rove has been?
Have you noticed how quiet the Charles and David Koch branch of the US government has been since they lost their 'brother by another mother'?
Have you noticed that the American Mullahs haven't realy goten behind Saint Santorum?
Brokered convention, let's see..........

all regular delegates (who, previously, were pledged to the candidate who had won their respective state's primary or caucus election) are "released," and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate

Brokered convention.
What a wonderfull time for the elephant magician to pull a Chris Christy or Jeb Bush out of his hat!
Every thing they could ask for. New kid in town. Been begged to run all along. All the conventionel repub and tea party support in the world.
Enough Citisens United money to buy a third world country.
Very dirty trick, but what would you expect. They are republicans after all.

I would expect just that with a little October susprise thrown in for good mesure.

[TygrBright]

33. oooooo, start popping the popcorn! n/t

[Major Hogwash]

38. Because watching clowns hit each other with foam bats is fun and entertaining!!!!

It will be like a Stoogeapalooza!!

Doink! Crack! Why, you! Smack! Yoiks! Slap! Wiseguy, eh? Bop! Hey, that hurt! Cronk! Bam! Rrrrr-uufff! Sploink! Kee-rack!

[Bucky]

40. It'll never happen. First off, brokering a nominee requires the ability to compromise.

Culturally, Republicans have long since rejected the notion of compromise as the tool of the devil. Secondly, they have 48 more primaries and caucuses to go through. Certainly by that time they'll get it down to two (we already know which two that will be) since their winner-take-all system ensures Ron Paul will never win delegates from any state. Statistically, it's virtually impossible for someone not to end up with a majority of delegates. They might fight over a few platform planks, but we'll know who the nominee is by the end of April--guaranteed.

[MADem]

43. That's how we ended up with Warren Harding... nt

[karynnj]

52. The conditions they need are for 3 or more candidates to

have blocks of delegates and the top candidate to have fewer than the delegates of the second candidate plus the sum of the lower ranking candidates.

I would bet that Santorum might stay in longer than other candidates might. I doubt he has much future in the party if he loses. If Gingrich implodes and Santorum is still in the race, you could end up with the sum of Gingrich and Santorum (plus the small Paul number) being higher then Romney.

Edited because I was reminded by reading another post that we are entering the time when states are winner take all.

[Left Coast2020]

55. IF THERE IS MAYHEM IN THE PARTY OF GREED......

...does that mean that the candidates should choose Allstate?

Just wondering......