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shaayecanaan

(6,068 posts)
Sat Jun 15, 2013, 01:57 AM Jun 2013

Iran election: moderate Rouhani leads

Source: The Guardian

The moderate Iranian cleric Hassan Rouhani has taken a strong lead in the initial results of Iran's presidential election, threatening to win a simple majority and avoid a second-round runoff.

With more than 5.2 million votes counted from the 50 million electorate, Rouhani had 52.3% of votes cast, Iran's interior ministry said. Rouhani's nearest rival was the conservative Tehran mayor, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a long way behind with 17.33%. Hardline nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili was third with about 13%.

Seven hours after polling ended, Iran's interior minister, Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar, appeared on state-run television to begin announcing the results.

The authorities had initially announced they would begin to reveal counts just after 2am local time on Saturday (10.30pm Friday BST), but the first figures did not come through until at least four hours later. This was in marked contrast to the previous vote in 2009, which many believed was rigged, when final results were announced in matter of few hours.

"It has taken them seven hours to count 800,000 votes while four years ago they counted almost 30 million votes in few hours," one Iranian living in Tehran said via online chat on Facebook. "It might be a good sign that actually this time they're really counting."

Read more: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/15/iran-election-moderate-rouhani-leads

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Douglas Carpenter

(20,226 posts)
4. I predict the mainstream media will return to the line it held during the presidency of Mohammad
Sat Jun 15, 2013, 03:15 AM
Jun 2013

Khatami -continually telling us that he has no real power and his role is largely ceremonial and that although his moderate words are nice - they do not reflect any change in the real policy of the Iranian government. Furthermore expecting meaningful negotiations would be naïve, Unlike during the days of outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad where we are led to believe that he holds real power and every crazy menacing comment he makes reflects an inflexible agenda and is a direct and imminent threat.

shaayecanaan

(6,068 posts)
6. i rather thought the same myself...
Sat Jun 15, 2013, 06:22 AM
Jun 2013

I don't expect any thawing of relations with the US - Iran is too much of a slam dunk competition amongst American politicians for that. But maybe this will open up opportunities with the Europeans.

azurnoir

(45,850 posts)
8. when it comes to promting Ali Hosseini Khamenei as the leader that counts there could be a problem
Sat Jun 15, 2013, 04:19 PM
Jun 2013
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has issued a fatwa saying the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons was forbidden under Islam. The fatwa was cited in an official statement by the Iranian government at an August 2005 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei

I suspect that will be either swept under the rug or the down the memory hole theory will be put to use unless of course this part will be the new excuse as the 'West' and it's ally have far too much invested in a 'cold' war with Iran to stop now or perhaps the "he could change his mind" disclaimer is used

from the wiki link

The impact and applicability of the fatwa has also been put into question for various other reasons. These include the possibility that it may be changed and even reversed by Khamenei in the future—much as then-Supreme Leader Khomeini, during the Iran-Iraq war, reluctantly reversed his previous doctrinal ban on indiscriminate weaponry and ordered the resumption of research into its development, including nuclear bombs.


in any event how this spun and parsed will be 'interesting'

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
5. The Supreme leader is the master of
Sat Jun 15, 2013, 04:37 AM
Jun 2013

Iran. Elections, maybe in the eyes of other parts of the world sorta means progress, but who ever is elected is just a puppet.

karynnj

(59,475 posts)
7. The Supreme Leader controlled who could run, but it may be that electing someone designated the
Sat Jun 15, 2013, 09:04 AM
Jun 2013

"moderate" might be a way to walk down off the cliff - while having it be THEIR choice - not the world's forcing them. It also might be an opening to let the US and Russia cool down their proxy war in Syria. None of the countries, Iran, Russia and the US, France, Britain and the Arab countries, fueling that mess will benefit from a regional war or an unstable government. Imagine what change could happen, even if the cost is that Assad stays in power, if some moderates are brought into the government and Iran stops arming Hezbollah. The entire Middle East picture changes overnight, possibly even helping create a more supportive backdrop for an Israel/Palestinian peace effort.

It is interesting to think that this could happen if both the US and Russia want to really work together and if Iran is signaling with this vote that they want to rejoin the world. We know that Obama has been incredibly reluctant to do more in Syria and he and Ben Rhodes STILL speak of preferring a political solution. (I know this sounds really naive and pollyannish, but Obama and Putin will meet at the G8 and this COULD oddly be the key for the US to step away from escalating the Syrian war. Russia has wanted Iran at the Kerry/Lavrov Geneva 2 Peace conference and this person being seen as more moderate might allow that. If Iran agreed on Hezbollah in exchange for the world easing up on it, it is a big win for both the US and Russia.) Here is one Indian source I don't know that shows that the State Department - even in explaining the savin gas declaration to other countries (which is their responsibility) - is still pushing for a political solution - http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/john-kerry-calls-lavrov-to-brief-on-syria_855129.html

I know all of this is complete pie in the sky based on almost nothing, but imagine how many lives would be saved. Though far less significant, it would reward Obama's standing against everyone from Petraeous, the Clintons, the Republican war hawks led by McCain, the Democratic war hawks led by Menendez and others who voted out the SFRC resolution to arm the rebels. Working for a political solution does NOT make a President a "wuss". Imagine that as a precedent for future Presidents to have!



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