Co-pilot spoke last words heard from missing Malaysian plane

[boston bean]

Source: Reuters


(Reuters) - The co-pilot of a missing Malaysian jetliner spoke the last words heard from the cockpit, the airline's chief executive said on Monday, as investigators consider suicide by the captain or first officer as one possible explanation for the plane's disappearance.

No trace of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 has been found since it vanished on March 8 with 239 people aboard. Investigators are increasingly convinced it was diverted perhaps thousands of miles off course by someone with deep knowledge of the Boeing 777-200ER and commercial navigation.

A search unprecedented in its scale is now under way for the plane, covering a area stretching from the shores of the Caspian Sea in the north to deep in the southern Indian Ocean.

Airline chief executive Ahmad Jauhari Yahya also told a news conference that it was unclear exactly when one of the plane's automatic tracking systems had been disabled, appearing to contradict the weekend comments of government ministers.




Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/17/us-malaysiaairlines-flight-idUSBREA2701720140317

[BlueStreak]

1. These guys are just throwing crap out there

Is there a recording of that message? Apparently there is. Has it been subjected to laboratory voice analysis to prove whose voice it is? Apparently not, because later in the press conference, they used the words "Initial investigations indicate it was the co-pilot ..."

This morning we have a report that the plane was flying at low altitude to avoid radar. But that would not have been possible for the amount of time the engines were running because of the increased fuel burn rate. The Malaysians say it may be suicide. Well, what suicidal pilot would go tot he trouble of trying to ply under radar? That's ridiculous One of those theories (if not both) is wrong.

And the Malaysians are asking Australia to take over the search along the southern route. Well, there wouldn't be any radar over the Indiana ocean, so how could anybody say the plane was flying at low altitude to avoid radar, and also believe the plane might be over the southern route?

Everybody is still just guessing.

[boston bean]

2. As far as I'm concerned this is how all investigations

take place. When you don't know, everything is on the table.

Malaysia says the voice was of the younger officer. What that means is up for speculation. Which again, is absolutely NORMAL in these situations.

To be reporting on what authorities are speculating is news.

[BlueStreak]

3. It is normal for the investigation. It is not normal (in the west) for the official account

to be mostly just a stream of guesses without any facts. When something happens here, most officials are careful NOT to speculate when they don't have any real information. The Malaysian culture may be different. No problem with that. The problem is that the western media is running off half cocked reporting all this unsupported speculation as if it were being presented as fact. It isn't.

[boston bean]

4. I don't think so. Many sources are American, Boeing

NTSB etc.

[HipChick]

5. Why fly under radar if you are going to commit suicide..

Nothing is making sense

[BlueStreak]

6. Why fly 8 hours if the goal is suicide?

Obviously SOMETHING happened. But most of the theories, that are being thrown out there as if based on facts, depend on preposterous leaps of logic.

Flying south makes no sense except in the case of a deranged pilot or equipment failure. There is no hijacking or terror scenario that makes any sense flying south.

Flying north at least fits a hijacking scenario, but the route they supposedly took is preposterous. You can't fly that many hours at 5000 feet, and even at that, flying over heavily populated and protected areas, you won't avoid radar completely. But then where is the plane? If it flew the supposed northern arc and crashed, it would have been detected. An aircraft of that size doesn't crash in such a populated region without some notice.

So I don't believe that perfect circle scenario defined by the satellite, even though that supposedly came from Boeing. It is based on faint pings that supposedly happened once an hour. The margin for error on that is enormous.

The authorities obviously have a strong suspicion of the copilot. I hope they have good reason for that, but they have not shared the slightest bit of evidence why that might be the case. I'm OK with that as long as the facts are being pursued vigorously behind the scenes. But with these Malaysian jokers in charge, I have my doubts about that.

[ellisonz]

10. So they don't find the wreckage/black box...

...what's more terrorizing than never knowing?

[BlueStreak]

11. Suicide and terror are two different things

I am no expert on either, but I'd think it it were a suicidal pilot, he's want to get it over as soon as possible. Let's say he waited until his partner went to the bathroom and then locked the cockpit door. I'd think that he wouldn't want to wait another 6 hours because there is always a chance that people would be able to break the door down in that time.

And as a terrorism plot, this just doesn't seem to be very successful. Terrorism depends on the shock factor. Here we are 11 days later and we still don't even know if the plane crashed or if anybody died. If the plot was to fly the plane into a building, this seems like a really lousy choice of flights if you target is 8 hours away. Lots of things can go wrong with that sort of a plan.

Given the very limited facts that have been released and not later contradicted, this matches nothing we have seen in history. I don't believe an act like this would be so pointless. I expect there is a true explanation that would make a lot more sense than anything we have heard so far. But I am not so sure we will ever hear it.

[ellisonz]

12. Not really.

The proliferation of suicide bombings, suicide attacks etc...show the intricate linkage between suicide and terrorism. In the hypothetical, why would you assume he wants to get it over with as fast as possible? Furthermore, if our altitude data is correct the passengers may have been incapacitated and killed early on:

An Asia-based pilot of a Boeing 777-200, who asked not to be identified because he was not authorized to speak to reporters, said an ascent above the plane’s service limit of 43,100 feet, along with a depressurized cabin, could have rendered the passengers and crew unconscious, and could be a deliberate maneuver by a pilot or a hijacker.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/world/asia/malaysia-military-radar.html?_r=0

Political fanatic pilot locks out/or incapacitates his younger co-pilot, kills the passengers, then flies the plane out of traveled airspace and into one of the most remote oceans on Earth before running low on fuel and crashing? Minimal flotsam is left behind, the plane isn't found before the flight recorder stops sending out a sonar beacon, and we never know what happened.

I think we've adjusted to the more traditional model of terrorism in which we expect demands and claims of credit. What we're missing though is how often these attacks are the work of lone wolves and how the individual cultural context can frame the act. This event has been deeply shocking to Malaysia and deeply embarrassing to the ruling UNMO coalition.

Zaharie Ahmad Shah had motive, opportunity, and ability...those are facts and they support such a theory more than any other one at this point.

[BlueStreak]

15. The passengers could have been hypnotized by disco balls and flashing strobe lights

but there is no evidence of that. Where is there any evidence that the plane ascended above its service ceiling? I keep hearing people say that, but I haven't seen any reliable source for that. On the contrary, recent reporting says that the flight path they have been able to confirm is consistent with the plan flying under control of the flight control system, which obviously would not go above the service rating for the aircraft.

It really is better if we stick with information that is at least somewhat corroborated by people in a position to know.

The scenario you described is certainly possible, among 1000 other scenarios that are equally plausible at this stage. But if I am suicidal, a) I don't wait for 8 hours because others might be able to overcome me in that time, and b) I don't risk a soft landing in an out-of-fuel condition. I put the thing into a nosedive to make sure I am not a survivor.

[ellisonz]

18. It's been widely reported that the plane ascended to 45,000 feet (there's evidence)...

According to military radar, the aircraft was flying extremely high shortly after its turn — as much as 45,000 feet, above the certified maximum altitude of 43,100 feet for the Boeing 777-200. It then descended as it crossed Peninsular Malaysia, flying as low as 23,000 feet before moving up to 29,500 feet and cruising there.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/asia/questions-over-absence-of-cellphone-calls-from-missing-passengers.html

Another possibility is that passengers and the crew were somehow terrorised into compliance, either through threats or through an accomplice in the cabin. A third theory is that the plane's apparent climb to an altitude of 45,000 feet early after diversion might have been designed to incapacitate others on board by inducing hypoxia - oxygen deprivation - which quickly causes disorientation and unconsciousness and can lead to death. But the radar readings are not absolutely certain and in any case Boeing-777s are certified to fly at up to 43,000 feet; counting on a cabin depressurisation just 2,000 feet above this seems unlikely. Oxygen supplies are also kept in the cabin for crew members, in addition to the oxygen masks. In all, it would be an elaborate plan with limited prospects of success.

Finally, it is possible that more than one explanation is relevant. If whoever diverted the plane had set a new flight path, the plane could have continued to fly for hours even if that person was incapacitated for some reason - such as hypoxia. Planes have flown for thousands of miles with unconscious crews.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/16/mh370-unanswered-questions-pilot-search

Are the New York Times and Guardian reporting complete un-sourced nonsense?

And it would seem it maintained that altitude for a significant time. I agree that merely relying on the high altitude to do the trick is not sufficient. It is possible though that Shah could have further sabotaged the pressurization system. Pilots have substantially longer air tanks than the crew or passengers. It would make sense that he would use the described time frame to do so, go down lower, reengage the system and then resume normal cruising altitude.

There are not "1000 other scenarios that are equally plausible at this stage" - the Northern corridor is extremely unlikely as a 777 is a huge radar blip and that area is well-surveilled. That leaves the Southern corridor which ends in remote parts of the Indian ocean.

a) I don't have to wait 8 hours if all others are unconscious dead - moreover, making the plane virtually disappear is dramatic effect.
b) The Southern Indian ocean is huge! Nothing would prevent the pilot from still taking his own life if ditching the plane in the ocean doesn't work.

The cockpit door is reinforced and there is no cell signal over the open ocean. The passengers (if conscious) would have been unable to do anything.

The reality here is that its probably 50/50 whether any debris is ever found and unlikely that the plane is ever found considering the size of the search area in the Southern corridor and the fact that the sonar beacon with the black box will stop recording after 30 days.

So in short - there is substantial evidence that makes this scenario the most likely one.

1. The pilot has known political affiliation and Anwar Ibrahim was convicted and jailed that same day - it's reported he was in attendance at the trial. By doing this and not leaving a manifesto, he hurts UNMO http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Malays_National_Organisation without bringing explicit blowback on the PRK http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pakatan_Rakyat
2. The pilot was really only one of two people on the plane with the technical ability to sabotage and fly the plane.
3. The radar and satellite data suggest that the plane was navigated by a commercial pilot who took the plane on a route away from land and heavily used ocean corridors.

Motive, ability, opportunity. If you can come up with a scenario that has those three things I'll buy you - otherwise it's become increasingly clear that there are no other reasonable hypotheses.

[BlueStreak]

19. What is "that area"

That arc chart is bullshit. That is just a wild extrapolation based on the LAST ping. It does not in any way indicate a flight path. It there was a destination in any of those countries, the safer flight path would have been over water where the radar coverage is much less dense.

Regarding altitude, virtually everything that has been reported by those sources has been retracted. I haven't followed that aspect of the story because I assume it will soon be contradicted if it hasn't already. Moreover, I haven't heard any aircraft expert corroborate the idea that the pilot could expect a loss of pressure by flying 2000 feet above the equipment rating. Indeed, what I have heard experts say is that the service ceiling is based on the possible lift and has nothing to do with ability to maintain pressure. As long as there are no leaks, the plane will maintain pressure and 2000 feet isn't going to open up a leak. So if you want your theory to work, you will have to add a twist where the rogue pilot climbs out on the wing with an ax and whacks away at the fuselage or something. As far as I know there is no button in the cockpit labeled "Lose all the cabin oxygen".

All of that notwithstanding, this is a really complicated way for a guy to commit suicide. And if it was an act of terror, who is terrorized? We're just confused.

[ellisonz]

20. The Malaysian government is terrorized/embarrassed.

Malaysian media and some of the international media is covering this angle: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f582e940-ab90-11e3-90af-00144feab7de.html#axzz2wGACZ1gb

And since you're not willing to accept the information that has been released regarding radar and satellite information there's really no point in further discussing questions of flight path.

Fact: the transponder was turned off - Fact: the ACARS system was partially disabled. - Fact: The plane was navigated off course.

Details regarding how the pressurization system on a Boeing 777 are scarce - here's some discussions of how this might be done:

http://aviation.stackexchange.com/questions/2328/could-a-pilot-incapacitate-other-crew-passengers-by-manipulating-cabin-air-quali

The mere threat of doing so from the pilot very likely would have been sufficient to cower the passengers. And again, the cockpit door is locked and reinforced and the passengers have no way to communicate with the outside world or escape.

He doesn't likely need to do this: "As far as I know there is no button in the cockpit labeled "Lose all the cabin oxygen".

All of that notwithstanding, this is a really complicated way for a guy to commit suicide.

But not unprecedented...and that this point there are essentially zero other operational theories.

Hijacking: implausible
Mechnical error: implausible
Pilot error: implausible
Catastrophic airframe failure: implausible

In short, we're out of theories and this is the most viable one left standing. Do you have any theory at all?

[BlueStreak]

21. Do I have a theory?

Yes. Several. But they are all based on speculation, just as yours is. And I don't think any particular theory has enough actual data to call it any more than 25% likely. If you are arguing that your 25% scenario is better than the other 20% scenarios, I won't dispute that. If you are saying "Therefore, it must be the truth", that's where I can't go along.

My theories include the assumption that this story has serious geopolitical implications and that there is a lot of solid information that is not being shared between countries, and certainly not shared with the public. And because they have not seen fit to give me that information, my theories are just fanciful speculation.

[chrisa]

7. Yup. This story makes no sense at all.

Either the GPS data they have is faulty, or this was a weird piracy / kidnapping attempt gone bad. What's even more bizarre is, both were seasoned pilots and would know how much fuel was left in the plane and how far they could get.

Is there a coverup? A conspiracy? This is making even less sense every day.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

17. He might want the plane not be found.

Maybe he doesn't want the black boxes found and evidence of his suicide uncovered. So he planned to crash in a completely different part of the ocean.

The FedEx pilot (see below link) planned to incapacitate his fellow pilots with a hammer. Their injuries would be consistent with a crash if enough was left of the bodies to autopsy. This pilot also attempted to disconnect the cockpit voice recorder.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Express_Flight_705

The MH370 pilot wouldn't be the first to want to disguise his own murder/suicide.

[Lasher]

8. Locking, duplicate topic (unlocked)

Last edited Mon Mar 17, 2014, 12:35 PM - Edit history (1)

Please continue discussion in this earlier LBN thread.

We have decided to unlock due to the assertion by the Malaysia Airlines chief executive that the voice was that of the co-pilot. We see this as a significant new development that justifies this new thread.

[boston bean]

9. kicking it has been unlocked.

Thank you hosts.

[bananas]

13. k&r nt

[LiberalElite]

14. The way this "investigation" is going

they may as well have the witch doctors go at it again. Couldn't hurt.

[BlueStreak]

16. Witch doctors might be more reliable. The premise for this thread has aready been retracted

Now the Malaysians are saying they don't know when the system was turned off, and it could have been 15 minutes after that last voice contact.