Kiev's brutal strategy in eastern Ukraine

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In mid-December, President Obama signed into law the Ukraine Freedom Support Act, which, among options for more sanctions against Russia, calls on the White House to provide Kiev with assistance for internally displaced persons as well as to cooperate with international organizations to distribute aid in Ukraine.

Such aid is sorely needed in eastern Ukraine. Much of the infrastructure of Donetsk and Luhansk — the main cities in the Donbas region — has been destroyed, coal and food supplies are disrupted, and Kiev froze government pension and other payments to the region in November. With brutal winter conditions approaching, risks of starvation and death are becoming too real. As the United Nations and Amnesty International put it, a humanitarian crisis is looming.

Unfortunately, recent statements by Col. Oleksiy Nozdrachov, Ukraine's chief of military and civilian cooperation in eastern Ukraine, show disturbing signs of Kiev's attitude toward this crisis. Where the U.N. sees a looming humanitarian disaster, Kiev may see an opportunity.

Kiev's strategy, as outlined by Nozdrachov in USA Today, is to continue withholding government services from the rebel-held areas in hopes that increased suffering will turn the local population against the separatists. “This shows the population in the occupied territory that the situation under the Ukrainian government is much, much better,” Nozdrachov said. In addition, an Amnesty International report posted Dec. 24 said pro-Kiev “volunteer battalions are increasingly blocking humanitarian aid into eastern Ukraine in a move which will exacerbate a pending humanitarian crisis.”

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-golinkin-ukraine-humanitarian-crisis-20150102-story.html

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1. France Names Conditions for Delivering Mistral Warships to Russia

The French defense minister has named the conditions on which France will consider fulfilling a contract to deliver two Mistral helicopter carriers to Russia, which was suspended indefinitely over Russia's support for separatists in eastern Ukraine, the Interfax news agency reported.

"There needs to be a ceasefire that is completely respected in this part of Europe [Ukraine]. A political roadmap is also necessary," Interfax quoted Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian as saying Thursday on radio station Europe 1.

The first of two Mistral warships was to be handed over to Russia on Nov. 14, but the French government delayed the delivery indefinitely in response to Russia's support for the separatists.

A ceasefire agreement was signed between separatist forces and the Ukrainian government in September after five months of bloody conflict. It has been flouted by both sides, however, with more than 1,000 people killed in intermittent shelling since the signing, according to the United Nations.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/france-names-conditions-for-delivering-mistral-warships-to-russia/514034.html

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2. Gas Falls to Four-Month Low in Europe Amid Reduced Ukraine Risk

Natural gas tumbled to a four-month low in Europe as Ukraine paid its debt to Russia, reducing the risk of disruptions to flows from the continent’s biggest supplier.

Front-month prices reached the lowest levels since August in the U.K. and the Netherlands, Europe’s largest markets, broker and exchange data showed. NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy said Dec. 24 it paid an outstanding debt to OAO Gazprom and said a week later it pre-paid for January shipments. Twice in the past decade Russia began the New Year by cutting off flows of the heating fuel to Ukraine.

Russia supplies about a third of Europe’s natural gas, half of which flows via Soviet-era pipelines crossing Ukraine. European gas prices fell more than 20 percent in 2014 as the mildest year on record left storage sites the fullest since at least 2009, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a lobby group in Brussels. Oil’s bear market also pushed prices lower as Russian gas sales are indexed to crude with a time lag.

“As Ukraine paid back its debt and pre-paid some additional Russian volumes, the market is now more relaxed and looking at the storage overhang and the oil price going down,” Thierry Bros, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in Paris, said by e-mail today. “This is impacting negatively gas prices.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-02/gas-falls-to-four-month-low-in-europe-amid-reduced-ukraine-risk.html

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3. Inside Obama’s Secret Outreach to Russia

President Barack Obama's administration has been working behind the scenes for months to forge a new working relationship with Russia, despite the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little interest in repairing relations with Washington or halting his aggression in neighboring Ukraine.

This month, Obama's National Security Council finished an extensive and comprehensive review of U.S policy toward Russia that included dozens of meetings and input from the State Department, Defense Department and several other agencies, according to three senior administration officials. At the end of the sometimes-contentious process, Obama made a decision to continue to look for ways to work with Russia on a host of bilateral and international issues while also offering Putin a way out of the stalemate over the crisis in Ukraine.

“I don’t think that anybody at this point is under the impression that a wholesale reset of our relationship is possible at this time, but we might as well test out what they are actually willing to do,” a senior administration official told me. “Our theory of this all along has been, let's see what’s there. Regardless of the likelihood of success.”

Leading the charge has been Secretary of State John Kerry. This fall, Kerry even proposed going to Moscow and meeting with Putin directly. The negotiations over Kerry’s trip got to the point of scheduling, but ultimately were scuttled because there was little prospect of demonstrable progress.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-31/inside-obamas-secret-outreach-to-russia

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4. . nt

[geek tragedy]

7. Kerry is Chief Windmill Tilter it seems.

Not sure which is a more futile task, this or Israel/Palestine.

[jakeXT]

5. Thousands march in Kiev rally to honour ‘Hitler’s accomplice’

THOUSANDS of Ukrainian nationalists held a torchlight ­procession across Kiev yesterday in honour of a 1940s anti-Soviet insurgent branded by Moscow as a Nazi collaborator.

The march on what would have been Stepan Bandera’s 106th birthday moved along the same streets on which hundreds of thousands rallied for three months last winter before ousting a Moscow-backed president.

Some wore World War II-era army uniforms while others draped themselves in the red and black nationalist flags and chanted “Ukraine belongs to Ukrainians” and “Bandera will return and restore order”.

Bandera is an immensely divisive figure in Ukraine whom some compare to Cuba’s Che Guevara. His movement’s slogan — “Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!” — was also the catchphrase of last year’s pro-European revolt. Russian President Vladimir Putin in March called that uprising’s leaders “the ideological heirs of Bandera, Hitler’s accomplice during World War II”.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/thousands-march-in-kiev-rally-to-honour-hitlers-accomplice/story-e6frg6so-1227173003362

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6. Just one big happy family. nt