Taub and the world's triple crisis

[bemildred]

The three major problems currently confronting the world - Islamic extremism, the financial meltdown and the conflict between the West and Russia - appear to be three different issues but they are strategically related. Lurking in the background is China, the new kid on the block that is slowly chipping away at the global power structures the West has developed since the end of World War II.

What is playing out in the global arena today resembles a scenario written by the American futurist Lawrence Taub, author of the book The Spiritual Imperative: Sex, Age, and Caste Move the Future. The world would be a better place if the power establishment in the West had read this remarkable book.

How did we get to the current triple crisis? Three Western strategic blunders stand out, all directly or indirectly related to oil and Western global dominance. Each time, the West willfully took the wrong decision.

In the 1950s, the US and Britain overthrows the democratic government of Iran to reclaim control of Iranian oil. Blowback came in the 1970s: the religious revolution of the Ayatollahs. In the 1980s, the West provides arms to the Mujahideen to fight the Soviets. The blowback: Taliban rule. In 2003, the West invades Iraq. The blowback: ISIS, - the Islamic State. In 2011, the West attacks Libya. The result: a failed state with countless militias and a feeding ground for ISIS.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/World/WOR-01-130315.html

[Jefferson23]

1. Fascinating read. n/t

[bemildred]

3. Well, it's too pat.

And I just generally disbelieve in such theories based on grand social movements and cycles and such. Though they can be fascinating. And illuminating. But they are not "facts" at all.

But it's been nagging at me that ISIS is a revolutionary movement, not just a rebellion. There is something "crazy" going on there. And I do think we are in for a paradigm shift, or whatever one wants to call it, a change in worldview. And there certainly are patterns in history.

But cycle theory has a long and sometimes sordid history, and is littered with examples of correlation without causation. So a new one based on ancient Hindu personality types, I can't really get on board with that.

So I just go Hmmmm.

[Jefferson23]

4. No one has to be on board...what fascinated me is what he has been correct about in the past.

Just another puzzle piece in an unsettled world.

I don't pretend to understand ISIS, all the highly educated members from a variety of
professional backgrounds..what do they feel was missing..betrayed? Why/how does this movement
fill this void.

[bemildred]

5. Yes, that ability to predict is hard to overlook.

The thing about such writers is they take the long view and look at demographics and other trends, cycles, and so on, and you can see a lot that way. History does show patterns. What gets you in trouble is when you think that is causation, it is evolution, and it can change any time.

Here is a guy who predicted the collapse of the USSR in 1976, and the USA in 2002 Or thereabouts, and has some interesting comments about Israel and other places like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, etc.:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/After_the_Empire

I suppose Spengler is the prototype, or Hegel, or Marx.

[Jefferson23]

6. I don't disagree. The way my brain tends to work is, I see constants...meaning, what is the

predominate action/pattern. One reason I am rather obsessed with human rights abuses
is that when I read them, for one, they tell me beyond the obvious, they give me an
indication of the politics of that region of the world. It does not tell me everything of
course, but can point me in the direction of where to look further. The powers that be
that exert the most control, whether through economic predatory means, exploiting the
religious element within their population ( I see this in Saudi Arabia and in the US/Republicans
in particular and it also results in advancing the gun culture here...people believing they
need to take their gun to Walmart when they pick up toilet paper.)

It makes sense the gentleman was able to learn so much through the infant mortality
rate..how long can any empire last when the people are not?

Do super powers really struggle for resources in the best interests of their people or
do they prefer dominance/control to the advancement of only the elite?

I am not sure enough Americans realize how much more they can demand and receive for the greater
good...so as you say, we keep evolving.

[bemildred]

7. Everybody is like that, we are evolved to decide what to do FAST on limited information.

So we look for the main chance, and we are not very good at this step-by-step math and logic and reasoning stuff which is why we are so happy with our new machines that do that FAST for us. But for what we do, the machines can't keep up with us.

One of the things that separates the men from the boys in software engineering is that ability to think about the dynamics of a program, about what happens when things happen asynchronously and you can't rely on your data structures being the way you left them. How do you ensure that it all works right when it is all happening at once? This comes up a lot in transactions systems like your bank uses, things like making sure the right creditor gets stiffed when your account runs out of money.

The other thing is memory management and memory debugging, both arcane skills, which are related.

The trick for feeble minds like ours is to know when to stick with your heuristics and instincts and when you need to haul out the heavy artillery and really take a problem apart. And computers are a big help in that case.

[Jefferson23]

8. Very thoughtful reponse, bemildred..thank you. We are interesting animals, us humans. n/t

[Inbetweendays]

2. Very interesting.

Thank you.