The Real Kingmakers in the G.O.P. By Ryan Lizza

[Demeter]

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-real-kingmakers-in-the-g-o-p

Top Republican strategists have begun to argue that Donald Trump could win the nomination...Political parties are rarely suicidal in Presidential campaigns. While it’s not uncommon for a party to nominate an unelectable candidate in a Senate or House election, the Presidential nominating systems used by both Democrats and Republicans only occasionally produce a fringe candidate. The last time that the Republican Party truly misfired was in 1964, when it nominated Barry Goldwater, who lost forty-four states in the general election. On the Democratic side, the last time the party produced a fringe candidate was in 1972, when George McGovern, who took advantage of new nominating rules that he had helped to write, lost forty-nine states.

HEY, WHAT ABOUT ROMNEY? THAT WAS A MISFIRE! MCCAIN/PALIN, A MISFIRE IF EVER THERE WAS ONE! DEMETER

The question that has hung over the Republican race for the past few months is whether the party is on the path to producing another historic loser by nominating an unelectable candidate, like Donald Trump or Ben Carson, or whether Republican voters, many of whom don’t make up their minds until the final days before a caucus or primary, will settle down with a more traditional—and electable—candidate, such as Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, or even the voluble Ted Cruz...Ever since June, when Trump announced his candidacy, the conventional wisdom among G.O.P. and media élites has been that Trump was a soufflé candidate who would collapse just like fringe outsiders in previous contests, such as Herman Cain, in 2012. But recently, a number of prominent observers have stepped forward to declare that, actually, Trump could win the Republican nomination.

In August, Norm Ornstein, a longtime and well-regarded political observer, made the most comprehensive argument that Trump could prevail. Ornstein pointed to several factors: a conservative media that has fostered a deeper anti-establishment sentiment among G.O.P. voters, who are less likely to get news from outside an ideological bubble; a more extreme G.O.P. electorate, especially on the issue of immigration; the absence of a consensus establishment alternative to Trump; the emergence of Super PACs, which might encourage the traditional candidates to stay in the race longer and divide up the non-Trump vote; and the fact that Trump is “a far more savvy candidate” than Cain and the like. More recently, Alex Castellanos, who worked for Mitt Romney, echoed Ornstein’s arguments, and wrote, “Slow learner that I am, I’ve resisted the idea that Donald Trump could and would become the Republican nominee. Unhappily, I’ve changed my mind.” Steve Schmidt, a veteran of John McCain’s 2008 campaign, has repeatedly argued that Trump could win. Ron Fournier, the National Journal columnist, said in June that Trump “won’t win the G.O.P. nomination,” but this week he changed his mind and wrote, “I was wrong to rule out Trump winning the nomination or the presidency.” Ironically, the recent burst of Trump-could-win commentary occurred just as Trump lost his lead in Iowa to Ben Carson, and, in at least one poll, nationally as well. (Trump is dealing with this development as one would expect: by questioning Carson’s religion and the validity of the polls.)

But has the Republican Party really lost its mind? Is it really going to nominate someone like Trump (or Carson), whose views are are so far outside the mainstream that either would pave the way for a historic Democratic landslide?

It’s doubtful.

The overwhelming majority of Republican voters have repeatedly told pollsters this year that, whatever their choice in any given poll, they haven’t made up their minds yet....

MORE, AND IT'S NOT REASSURING, EITHER

Ryan Lizza is the Washington correspondent for The New Yorker, and also an on-air contributor for CNN.

[Wellstone ruled]

1. When the happy dance is done,

the Rethugs will pull John Ellis Bush up front and anoint him as King and the rest is just sound Bites and Optics.

[Warpy]

3. There's a very real risk they won't field a nominee, at all.

Even among the party kingmakers, there is a division between the eastern oil barons and the western oil barons. The Koch boys don't want Jeb! I don't think anyone but the hardcore Jesus jumpers want Carson. Pataki might be a come from behind compromise because he hasn't pissed any of them off yet.

However, this might be the year the Jesus jumpers tear the party apart. They were told to sit down and shut up when the kingmakers forced the "electable" Mitt on them over their favorite, Santorum. They're not ging to be told to sit down and shut up next year, not after Mitt was not just defeated, but routed.

Trump? He's a clown and a blowhard and I don't expect him to be in the race by next year. I think he'll find his business interests need his full attention.

[Wellstone ruled]

4. So Ironic isn't it.

Is not one of the Bush Family married to a Koch?

[Warpy]

5. Yeppers, but it happened before the second one fucked up the country

so much that not only did a Democrat follow him but a black Democrat, at that. Horrors!

[Wellstone ruled]

6. Lovin it!!

These slugs from the John Birch Society are a real piece of work and that is not in a positive sense. Noticed a little blurb about Shell Oil dumping their Canadian Tar Sands Exploration,well well,seems to me the Krotch Bros. bought some tens of thousand acres in the same area. Ouch,that is going to hurt.

[Fred Sanders]

2. Good analysis. Polling is not voting and polling respondents probably know how to read a calendar.

Remember that 6 folks led the very early GOP primary field in 2011 at one time or another before the GOP did what they always do....nominate the richest guy they can find to run.

And Carson is like Mr. 9,9,9, only Carson is going for 10,10,10.

Carson the nominee? In his fevered religious dreams!

As an aside, long way for Clinton to go as well, but she will take nothing for granted, that much we should all know by now.