The GOP's Bleak Demographic Destiny: How to Win the White House When All Your Voters Are Dying

[Proserpina]

http://www.alternet.org/gops-bleak-demographic-destiny-how-win-white-house-when-all-your-voters-are-dying?akid=13811.227380.v8T3bY&rd=1&src=newsletter1047918&t=17

A big part of what made the 2012 election so much fun was the fact that Mitt Romney and pretty much every Republican and conservative who supported his candidacy were utterly and unshakably confident that they had the election in the bag. Gallup and Rasmussen had Romney up, the campaign’s internal polling said Mitt was going to win, and all the state-level polling that portended an Obama blowout could be easily unskewed to show that Romney was actually on track for a glorious victory. It was a done deal, no reason to fret, so Mitt said “the hell with it” and went ahead and campaigned in Pennsylvania the weekend before the electionbecause at that point it was all about running up the score. Romney hadn’t even bothered drafting a concession speech.

Then the voting started and everyone from Mitt Romney on down had a collective “oh shit” moment as they realized that the electorate had far more young and minority voters and far fewer white voters than they’d assumed. The Obama team outhustled Romney where it mattered, and shifting voter demographics helped the president cruise to reelection.

This demographic shift is ongoing and, as a new report from the Center for American Progress makes clear, will play an important role in the 2016 election. Historically speaking, the Republicans should be the favorites to capture the White House next year – it’s rare for the party controlling the White House to win a third consecutive presidential term, owing to voter fatigue and a general desire for change. These factors are exacerbated by President Obama’s middling popularity and the fact that the economic recovery hasn’t been spectacular across the board. But the changing complexion of the electorate will, per the CAP report, help to insulate the party against the effects of economics and history – but only up to a point.

Put simply, the Democratic edge among minority voters, younger voters and educated voters keeps getting stronger as each group comes to represent a larger and larger share of the electorate. And that edge will only be more pronounced heading into 2016. At the same time, the Republican base of non-college-educated white voters continues shrinking as a portion of the electorate. What keeps the Republicans in the game is the fact that their voters are more politically active than the Democrats’ key constituencies and can be better relied upon to actually show up and vote. As my colleague Sean Illing has written, this is a lethal trend for the GOP given that the party is outwardly hostile to minority voters’ interests and keeps trying to wring more and more votes from a demographic that is slowly, inexorably disappearing from this earth. But they’re not out of it yet, not by any stretch. And CAP’s report lays out two paths to victory for the GOP that could possibly get them over the demographic hump in 2016. The first is to “put all its cards on a nominee and policy strategy that seeks to maximize conservative anger at President Obama and disgust with Washington while appealing to similarly agitated and concerned independent voters in key swing states.” The second is “a strong and compelling case to voters that their nominee and party agenda is sufficiently moderate and inclusive to represent a full range of Americans while simultaneously changing the direction of Washington and turning the corner on the Obama years.” If you were to sum these strategies up, you could call them, respectively, “rage and resentment” and “apathy and bullshit.” The “rage and resentment” strategy is, as CAP notes, the less promising of the two, but it is more in line generally with what Republican base voters think and believe...

[oh08dem]

2. These articles are dangerous

because, I believe, they breed a sense of complacency. Why fight for minority rights when we already have their vote? Why fight for organized labor if we already have their vote? The Democratic Party and the progressive movement in general would be best served by disregarding the demographic trends and fight for EVERY vote like they're two points behind in late October.

[Kalidurga]

3. Even worse

It gives Democrats a reason to not keep the best interests of their voting base in mind and they can just do whatever it takes to get the blessings of the oligarchy.

[Proserpina]

4. Not REAL Democrats, and not Bernie

[Kalidurga]

6. No not real Democrats

But, they aren't as common as they used to be.

[CTyankee]

5. and we have diverse priorities. To some, if their priority hasn't cost them, it's a shrug to them,

not a call for action. OTOH, if you cry too many calls for action it gets tiring.

However, all is not lost here. I am struck by the fact that we have a new rising number of girls reaching their adolescence when reproductive issues start to come on their radar every generation. The older ones MUST educate them to political history and how important maintaining and advancing those rights are to them. We certainly have that advantage over the dying embers of the republican agenda...but it's up to US in this generation (and for my older, now senior, generation) to keep the flame glowing. That means supporting Planned Parenthood and ALL rights of women politically. Talk is cheap. Action is key...