Sailing Through a Meltwater Pulse

[Mr_Jefferson_24]

By Dmitry Orlov

It's January, and the Greenland ice sheet is melting. There was recently a winter hurricane in the North Atlantic, and another in the Pacific. On New Year's day there was a thaw at the North Pole. Greenand is melting; when it melts, the ocean level will go up 20 feet (6m). This will be enough to flood all the coastal cities—permanently. So far, predictions as to how fast this melting will occur have proven to be worthless, with the actual melting rate outpacing them by a huge margin. And although many people still believe that the effect will be gradual—less than an inch a year—another view on the matter is that at some point there will be an avalanche-like collapse of the Greenalnd ice sheet, which will generate a meltwater pulse, sending ocean levels up many feet in a single step.

And there are all those who, whenever I publish something that mentions climate change, crawl out of the woodwork and gnash their exoskeletal mandibles at me, to the effect that climate=weather, and it's all a conspiracy theory. They are all idiots and deserve a boathook in the eye. Sailing on...

For the sake of this discussion, I will assume a meltwater pulse of 10 feet (3m). What will it mean for those of us who live on the water and sail along the coastline? And, more specifically, what will be the impacts for the sailboat design I have been working on for about a year now—QUIDNON, the houseboat that sails?

Ignoring, for the moment, other impacts, most shoreline marine facilities—marinas, boatyards, fuel docks—were constructed to be a few feet above the highest high tide. In many cases, they now have less than a foot of freeboard at highest high tide, and given a bit of a storm surge that number becomes negative, and the ramps that lead down to the floating docks stick up at a jaunty angle. A 10-foot rise will put virtually all of these facilities under a few feet of water at high tide, rendering them inoperable. With the transformers under water, they will be unable to provide electricity. Travelifts—the cranes that lift boats out of the water for maintenance—will be rendered inoperative, and so there will be no more haulouts.

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article43984.htm

[daleanime]

1. kick, kick, kick....

[deathrind]

2. Agreed.

Scientific models are usually fairly accurate in their cause and effect but their timelines are woefully underestimated most of the time. The Earth has not seen such a dramtic increase in CO2 levels in such a short period of time as has happened in the last century (at least not that we can find in ice cores which go back hundreds of thousands of years). I think it would be safe to say that in our life time we will see large chunks of the Greenland ice sheet melt away or slide right off Greenland and coastal city's will become inundated with water.

I also don't think there is anything we can do to stop it, I think we have past that point. Even if we stopped putting anymore CO2 in the atmosphere today. We have heated the planet enough to where trapped Methane is starting to be released all over the globe in the oceans and permafrost and that gas is 4x the greenhouse gas that CO2 is. I hope I am wrong but I think we have relegated ourselves to a non-voting member on this ride and it is going to be devastating.

[Warpy]

3. I think you're correct

The geologic record has shown us instantaneous sea level increases up to 75 feet in the past, "instantaneous" meaning in geologic terms and usually occurring over a decade to a century. I just hope the rise is gradual enough that a lot of communications and other infrastructure can be removed and moved to higher ground rather than drowned in a gigantic "oops!" and lost forever.

[bemildred]

4. Yep.

And don't forget the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.