Did Colombians actually reject the peace deal? Not if you look at the statistics.

[Judi Lynn]

Did Colombians actually reject the peace deal? Not if you look at the statistics.

By Michael Spagat and Neil Johnson
October 5 at 12:02 PM

The official line is that the “no” vote won the referendum in Colombia. The internationally lauded peace treaty with the FARC guerillas was rejected, and now nobody knows what the country’s fate will be.

But did “no” actually win?

The numbers divide four ways, rather than just two “no” and “yes” answers: 6,431,376 against the treaty, 6,377,482 in favour, 86,243 unmarked ballots and 170,946 nullified ballots.

The referendum process itself was without doubt transparent and fair, and Colombia can be truly proud of it. But there were nonetheless several inevitable sources of statistical error in the counting process that could have swamped the razor-thin victory margin of 53,894. This means that saying “no” definitively won is statistically incorrect.

First, the counting methods. Votes were recorded on pieces of paper and hand-counted in the evening by people who must have been exhausted after working the whole day at polling stations.

More:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/10/05/did-colombians-actually-reject-the-peace-deal-not-if-you-look-at-the-statistics/

[frazzled]

1. "Why Referendums Are Not as Democratic as They Seem"

From the front page of today's New York Times, and I would add that the same applies to most state referendums here in the US:

The voters of the world have had quite a year: They rejected Colombia’s peace deal; split Britain from the European Union; endorsed a Thai Constitution that curtails democracy; and, in Hungary, backed the government’s plan to restrict refugees, but without the necessary turnout for a valid result.

Each of these moves was determined by a national referendum. Though voters upended their governments’ plans, eroded their own rights and ignited political crises, they all accomplished one thing: They demonstrated why many political scientists consider referendums messy and dangerous.

When asked whether referendums were a good idea, Michael Marsh, a political scientist at Trinity College Dublin, said, “The simple answer is almost never.”

“I’ve watched many of these in Ireland, and they really range from the pointless to the dangerous,” he added.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/05/world/americas/colombia-brexit-referendum-farc-cameron-santos.html?_r=0