Obamacarefacts - good talking points for ACA anti-repeal efforts
How Repealing or Defunding ObamaCare Could Effect the Country
We discuss the pros and cons of repealing ObamaCare, what a repeal and replace plan could look like under President Trump, and how approaching the issue in a smart way could lead to common sense reforms.
We know the debate over the law can be heated, and people have strong opinions, so we will take extra care to back everything up with citations and facts. Our goal isn’t to prove that the ACA (ObamaCare AKA the Affordable Care Act) is good or bad, rather our goal is to help examine and convey the effects of a full repeal or repeal of key provisions of the law.
TIP: A full repeal and replace plan would be near impossible to enact in Trump’s first 100 days due to the process involved in repealing each provision and writing a passable and effective replacement bill. Given this, Congressional Republicans are leaning toward a plan that would repeal parts of the law in early 2017 via budget reconciliation, but may delay enacting a new system for up to three years (i.e. they plan to defund ObamaCare’s key coverage provisions, but delay a replacement). This could repeal all provisions that require funding, like tax credits, the mandates, and Medicaid expansion, but leave in place provisions like the preexisting conditions protections. The problem is that the protections are what drive prices up for consumers while credits, Medicaid expansion, and the mandates keep coverage affordable and help fund the system. This is a primary reason as to why studies have warned that repealing the ACA could cost Americans not only coverage, but could hurt the healthcare industry, raise deficit spending (and consequently debt), and even cause prices to rise for many consumers (such as consumers who have ever had a preexisting condition). See: How ObamaCare Could be Defunded Starting in 2017, Before a Replace Plan is Enacted.
TIP: Despite Trump being elected, the ACA is still in effect until further notice. That means 2017 open enrollment is still the only time to shop for 2017 coverage and get cost assistance. The law may get repealed in full, but that is unlikely and thus the full price-tag below is unlikely. Instead, it is likely that some provisions will be repealed and replaced. Trump has previously stated his intention to replace or reform the law and after being elected he restated that he plans to keep key provisions. Find out more about what President Trump means for ObamaCare, see a review of a GOP repeal and replace plan, and see our fix for the preexisting conditions.
The Effects of Repealing ObamaCare or Defunding ObamaCare
If the Affordable Care Act was repealed or defunded, especially now that it’s “the law of the land” and was upheld in the Supreme Court in 2012 and 2015, the effects would be massive (potentially leaving millions uninsured if tax credits and Medicaid expansion are defunded for example). For starters, since so much of the health care reform law has already been implemented, many aspects could not just be changed overnight.
Some of the parts of the law that could go change quickly if the ACA was repealed include the majority of the new benefits, rights, and protections like the protections for the 1 in 2 Americans with preexisting conditions. Repealing those protections would do little to curb federal, state, or personal health care spending, but would be a major blow to new consumer rights and protections regarding healthcare.
On the other hand, if the Act was not repealed, but was defunded, a different set of benefits go including: Medicaid expansion, the federal financial assistance for Marketplace coverage, and the individual and employer mandates. Repealing those cost benefits, but not the protections, could drastically raise consumer prices and slash assistance (but would likely save on federal spending).
Loosening rules on insurers may decrease premium growth in the short or long term, but it may also increase them (many of the ACA’s many cost curbing measuresare working, and repealing them could be a slippery slope). At this point there is little chance insurers would decrease premiums regardless of whether the ACA was repealed or not. In fact, the loss of millions of ObamaCare customers might just send the Market into chaos leading to higher premiums in the short term.
The estimated cost of repealing the law could be as much as $6.2 Trillion over the next 75 years according to a 2013 report by the Government Accountability Office. $6.2 trillion isn’t an exact number; it is an extrapolation of a worse case scenario based on this report.
A recent June 2015 report from the Congressional Budget Office showed a $137 billion net increase to the deficit over the next decade if the ACA is repealed. It is a little less jarring and is a more exact short term effect on the deficit. In addition, there could be up to 24 million being uninsured by 2024.
Meanwhile, a 2016 review of TrumpCare by The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget called MEASURING TRUMP’S HEALTHCARE PLAN estimated costs between $330 – $550 billion over the next ten years. Thus, while the highest estimates are scary, pairing the low estimates with the fact that many could lose Affordable Care and Patient Protections aren’t that much more inspiring.
trump-health-analysis
In all cases, the reason repealing the law adds to the deficit rather than reducing it is because the bulk of the law curbs healthcare spending and takes in revenue, while only a small part contributes to spending. Of course, a full repeal means doing away with all the reforms, not just subsidy spending. Specifically, Medicare reforms do a lot to bring down long-term Medicare spending. General healthcare spending was one of the major driving forces behind publicly held debt and an increasing deficit before the passing of the Affordable Care Act. Learn more about ObamaCare, healthcare, public debt, and the deficit here.
The bottom line: Repealing the entire Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare) would result in a net increase to the deficit and lead to tens of millions being uninsured. Reforming and amending it could be much better, but any political group in power has to face the reality that our multi-trillion dollar healthcare system is far more complex than a “repeal ObamaCare” rallying cry.
Before you support the effort to defund ObamaCare or repeal ObamaCare, please look at your State’s Health Insurance Marketplace. Tens of millions of Americans qualify for free or low-cost health insurance through the marketplace. We suggest applying during open enrollment to see if you are one of the tens of millions who will qualify for cost-assistance.
Reforming the ACA, Instead of Repealing it
On this page, we hope we make the point that repealing or defunding the law would have many negative consequences. We do not believe that the law is perfect. In fact, we strongly support reform and think there is room to improve the law. A full repeal may well be a short sighted and drastic answer to solving the very real health care problems we face in the US.
This means we fully support common sense reforms by any side of the isle, and strongly caution against drastic moves like a full repeal. That said, we will let the facts speak for themselves.
Below we take a closer look at the repeal and defund movement to continue to get to the bottom of what repealing, defunding, replacing ObamaCare means.
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