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SunSeeker

(51,367 posts)
Thu Feb 23, 2017, 03:31 AM Feb 2017

Democrats Best Bet to Retake the House? Follow the Sun

There has been no shortage of reports that President Trump is still very popular in the bars and diners of the old industrial towns that decided the 2016 presidential election.

But if you want to meet the voters who will decide the biggest political story of the 2018 congressional elections, you might have to fly right over the blue-collar workers of Youngstown, Ohio, and go talk to the real housewives of Orange County, Calif.
...
Darrell Issa, who represents the California coast from southern Orange County almost to La Jolla, is probably the nation’s most vulnerable incumbent. That’s based on factors that tend to predict which districts are likeliest to be competitive — like the result of his last election (he won by just 1 point) and how the district voted in recent presidential contests.

By the same measures, the 24th-most vulnerable Republican is Dana Rohrabacher, whose district is immediately north of Mr. Issa’s — stretching up the Orange County coast from Laguna Beach to Sunset Beach. In between, Ed Royce and Mimi Walters represent the 13th- and 20th-most vulnerable districts.
...
But Orange County is not an outlier. Across the nation, the most vulnerable Republican incumbents among the 50 or so most competitive seats tend to be in relatively well-educated, metropolitan districts with above-average Hispanic populations. It’s the opposite of most of the 2016 presidential battleground states, which were whiter, less educated and far less Hispanic than the country as a whole.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/02/22/upshot/democrats-best-bet-for-house-control-is-following-the-sun.html

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Democrats Best Bet to Retake the House? Follow the Sun (Original Post) SunSeeker Feb 2017 OP
From the New York Times to Gods ear! angstlessk Feb 2017 #1
We need 25 seats to take back the house BumRushDaShow Feb 2017 #2
Yep, and that's it in a nutshell JHan Feb 2017 #3

BumRushDaShow

(127,281 posts)
2. We need 25 seats to take back the house
Thu Feb 23, 2017, 08:09 AM
Feb 2017

There are gerrymandered districts here in PA that were still close in terms of votes tipping them to R. These are the places (e.g., 7th & 8th congressional) that need to be targeted and include counties that either voted for Clinton or were close.

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