On the "pee tape".
John Schindler -- @20committee
I've investigated the infamous "Trump tapes" for 2 years.
These are my preliminary findings.
Summary: the exact story around the 'pee tape' - the exact date and time in Moscow - may well be false. But there are probably other tapes. Though now we're in spy-v-spy territory.
http://observer.com/2017/11/spy-circles-suspect-kremlin-is-behind-dozens-of-fake-trump-sex-tapes/
Attempting to get to the bottom of a complex espionage case, untangling multiple strands of secret agentry, is the most challenging exercise in all intelligence work. It taxes the minds of the most gifted counterspies, particularly when the operation extends over years, even decades, and it involves a complex cast of players, some of them Russian.
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Ive previously written about Angletons wilderness of mirrors, since it remains a fascinating saga still, and I noted how tricky the counterspy game can be:
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No part of the investigation has gotten more rubber-necking than any kompromat that the Russians may possess on our president. Im talking, of course, about the alleged pee-pee tape that caught the publics attention when it was posited by the former British spy Christopher Steele in his now-infamous dossier on Donald Trump, which has become a lightning rod for all sorts of speculation, not necessarily informed.
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The dossiers pee-pee tape claim is viewed with derision by most Western spies who know the Russians. Its very likely that the Kremlin possesses kompromat on the presidentsenior intelligence sources from several countries have confirmed to me that unpleasant videos of Trump existyet theres no reason to believe Steeles particular claim here, without corroborating evidence.
So, Steeles porn-worthy allegation appears to be untrue, but the idea that our president has acted out in sexually controversial (and perhaps illegal) waysand that somebody has filmed itis taken very seriously by intelligence experts. Ever since Trump announced his candidacy for the White House in June 2015, espionage gossip everywhere has bandied about what might exist to corroborate decades of rumors about Trumps antics.
Its plausible that such kompromat exists, given our presidents lifestyle. Forty years ago, when he was partying at Manhattans Studio 54 at its cocaine-fueled heyday alongside celebrities and hangers-on (including the just-indicted Paul Manafort and the swinging Roger Stone), it was a wild scene of which Trump boasted: I would watch supermodels getting screwed, well-known supermodels getting screwed, on a bench in the middle of the room. There were seven of them and each one was getting screwed by a different guy.
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As many as a dozen intelligence services worldwide, on four continents, are in possession of some sort of Trump tape featuring sexual escapades of a controversial nature; in some cases, the women involved appear to be underage. Some of these tapes have been shared with the Mueller investigation.
One Western intelligence agency with a solid professional reputation is in possession of an unpleasant Trump tape that they assess with high confidence is bona fide, i.e. exactly what it appears to be. They obtained the tape from a trusted source who plausibly had access to it. Over the decades, Trump has traveled widelyincluding to Russia more than onceand thereby exposed himself to surreptitious filming in numerous countries.
However, heres the rub: Many of the Trump tapes floating around in spy circles worldwide cannot be verified, while some of them are obvious fakes. The Western spy agency thats holding a Trump tape theyre pretty sure is real has also been approached two other times with tapes that were less solidand one of them was transparently fake.
By John R. Schindler 11/09/17 11:17am
While the Observer doesn't have a perfect reputation, John Schindler does have a strong reputation as an ex-spy. He's probably the most respected ex-spy who is commenting on Russia today. (Other candidates: John Sipher, Asha Rangappa, Brennan, Hayden -- though the latter two are a bit too senior to share great detail since most of what they were formerly told was classified.)
Susan Rice and Schindler don't love each other but there is some respect there.
Link to tweet
Eliot Rosewater
(31,109 posts)mercuryblues
(14,530 posts)Ivanka and Jared.
Plus Schindler's dates are odd. He published this in 2017. Wrote he had been "I've investigated the infamous "Trump tapes" for 2 years." that makes him investigating in 2015. The dossier wasn't even written until Dec 2016.
Is he admitting that he knew about the tapes before Fusion GPS did?
sharedvalues
(6,916 posts)The American intel community knew of DJTa Russia ties since the mid 1980s. But counterintelligence investigations dont always lead to criminal referrals.
Yes, Schindler was worrried about Trump before 2017.
More_Cowbell
(2,191 posts)Even Steele didn't assess it as being very credible. He was reporting raw data, so he reported that Russians had said they had it. In my opinion, that was Russian disinformation. The Russians use disinformation to get us to distrust our media and to try to discredit sources. If they could later prove that it wasn't true, people might think that other things in the dossier also can't be true.
sharedvalues
(6,916 posts)In the article he speculates that Russia fed Steele details about the pee tape to distract from the real sex tapes that do exist.
According to a lot of ex Russia analysts including Rangappa, Sipher, and Schindler, a common propaganda tehnique is to mix false info in with real info so it is hard to tell what is true.
SunSeeker
(51,550 posts)Seth Meyers pieces together some really odd comments by Trump that no person who was not at a Moscow pee party would ever say:
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5ad03e85e4b016a07e9ae4a3
I think Trump has already confirmed the most salacious parts of the Steele Dossier.
sharedvalues
(6,916 posts)And in article Schindler says hes heard from his intel buddies that the Kremlin is pushing many fake sex tapes. (Technique is called deza or desinformatsiya) Presumably to make it hard to verify the real Trump sex tape. So the real sex tape may be worse than a pee tape.