Trump's efforts to stave off impeachment may also doom his reelection
By Brian Klaas
DemocracyPost contributor
January 17 at 11:40 AM
Theres a method to President Trumps shutdown madness and it actually makes a lot of sense once you realize that the shutdown isnt about the wall. Its not about winning. Its not about beating Chuck and Nancy. Trumps quixotic shutdown fight is really about consolidating his political base to prevent any Republicans from impeaching him when the Mueller report comes out.
The bad news is that Trumps decision to double down on his shrinking base could very well work at least for a while. As it stands now, he is likely to survive 2019, limp into the 2020 election and stand for reelection as the Republican nominee. The good news is that the more he doubles down on his base, the more he guarantees that voters will oust him at the ballot box and punish the Republicans for catering to party loyalists rather than doing what is best for the country.
For the past two years, elected Republicans have refused to cross the political Rubicon of turning on their partys leader. They wont challenge Trump on the shutdown. They wont challenge his illegal or immoral conduct. They wont challenge his lies. But there are cracks in Trumps GOP armor. House Republicans just got shellacked in the midterm elections, and that has caused at least some members of Congress to wonder whether saving Trumps skin will cost them their own.
There are two main ways Trump could be booted from office. First, he could be impeached. That would require a palace coup Senate Republicans would have to vote to destroy their own partys president. Second, Trump could lose in the 2020 election, with voters sending him back to Trump Tower.
Trump will soon face the biggest threat of his presidency. Special counsel Robert S. Mueller IIIs impending report is likely to present both illegal and disqualifying behavior. Trumps risk of impeachment is therefore imminent, while his danger of losing at the ballot box is comparatively distant nearly two years away. Therefore, Trumps urgent priority is just surviving 2019. If he doesnt, he wont even be in the 2020 election.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/01/17/trumps-efforts-stave-off-impeachment-may-also-doom-his-reelection/