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Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:00 PM

Trump's State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him

Last edited Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:34 PM - Edit history (1)

*Map available at link at bottom.

"The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the presidentís overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. Itís not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.

"Civiqs shows the presidentís net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just ďadults,Ē so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.
If you credit these polls at all, Trumpís reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which wonít be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.

"If the fourth scenario ó a win against all the evidence ó is Trumpís best hope for reelection, heís the one who needs to experience some fear and trembling heading toward 2020. If anything, thereís evidence that he is likely to undershoot rather than overshoot his approval ratings as the sitting president of a country whose direction lacks any kind of public confidence. Beyond that, even those who succeed by selling their souls to the devil donít have the collateral to pull that off twice.

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/08/trumps-state-by-state-approval-ratings-should-scare-him.html

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100212377141

12 replies, 746 views

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Reply Trump's State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him (Original post)
BigmanPigman Tuesday OP
msongs Tuesday #1
elleng Tuesday #2
BlueWI Tuesday #11
lunasun Tuesday #3
BigmanPigman Tuesday #5
Cicada Tuesday #4
Girard442 Tuesday #6
customerserviceguy Tuesday #7
BigmanPigman Tuesday #8
Thekaspervote Tuesday #9
TwilightZone Tuesday #10
MFM008 Wednesday #12

Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:02 PM

1. he was supposed to lose in 2016 nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:04 PM

2. Yes, he was.

Maybe Dems will show up in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois, and maybe the states will secure their voting equipment.

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Response to elleng (Reply #2)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:56 PM

11. That's only 3 states.

What about the rest of the country?

Posts of reassurance at this stage do the Democratic cause a disservice. Politics today are too volatile. Plus there are state and local elections to compete in, along with the House and Senate.

There are simply no certainties or even leads at this point. A full court press from now till November is the ticket.

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:05 PM

3. Exactly !Everyone needs to vote and get him out is a must -but anything can happen

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Response to msongs (Reply #1)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:07 PM

5. I know...that is why we need a 12 point lead going into the election

just to come out close to real election results WITHOUT Russian and GOP "interference". I think that is why no one listened to Bill Maher (and me) when he said tRump would win. They believed the polls. I kept hoping we were wrong though.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:06 PM

4. Trump personal approval ratings were similar before the Nov 2016 election

So I am not sure his underwater job approval is decisive

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Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:16 PM

6. Trump can't possibly win an honest election.

But then again, he never could. He ended up in the White House anyway.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:24 PM

7. Right now

Trump is running against "generic Democratic candidate". Once we get an actual nominee, that person's perceived weaknesses will be magnified greatly. That's why Trump isn't appearing to be worried.

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Response to customerserviceguy (Reply #7)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:29 PM

8. Good point.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:36 PM

9. Bookmarking...

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Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Tue Aug 13, 2019, 09:42 PM

10. Disapproval doesn't mean they won't vote for him.

Plenty of people who disapproved of him voted for him in 2016. The same will occur in 2020. We need to keep that in mind and not put too much faith in approval ratings.

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Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Wed Aug 14, 2019, 06:34 AM

12. The Russians may be

To busy to help him win this time.
Blowing up their own people and all.

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