BTRTN: And They're Off! Labor Day Snapshot of the Presidential, Senate and House Races
Born To Run The Numbers provides its up-to-the minute snapshot of the state of the races for President, the Senate, and the House. These are not predictions, but assessments of how the races would look if the election were today. It's good news for the Democrats...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/09/btrtn-and-theyre-off-labor-day-snapshot.html
Excerpts: "As of this moment, the Democrats have a very good chance of pulling off a 'trifecta' – Joe Biden winning the presidency, the Democrats both flipping the Senate and maintaining control of the House. For all of the hubbub around the two conventions, and the outrage, protests and violence sparked by the Kenosha shooting of Jacob Blake, not much has changed with respect to the presidential race. The national polls are unambiguously unmoved... At this stage, our models show Biden with a 79% chance of winning the presidency, down very slightly from the 81% we calculated last month. Biden is thus ahead in states that total 333 electoral votes to 205 for Trump. At this point, Biden could lose ALL NINE toss-up states and still win the election. Key to that is flipping Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, each of which he leads by 5-6 points..."
"The fate of control of the Senate seems likely to come down to four states: Arizona, Colorado, Maine and North Carolina. The Dems seem likely to lose their incumbent seat in Alabama, and thus will need to flip four seats to get to 50, the magic number required to gain control of the Senate assuming Biden wins. But at this juncture, the net +3 flip (with a Biden win) seems more likely than not. The Dems lead by material margins in each of those four GOP-held seats and, just to make it even more likely, are battling neck-and-neck with GOP-held seats in Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina. And they are also putting pressure on Republican Senators in Alaska and Kentucky. There is simply no way the GOP can possibly flip the House. We are being kind to put the odds of the Dems holding the House at 99%; we are simply allowing for the highly unlikely threat of a meteor landing."
