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Tue Sep 8, 2020, 09:46 PM

Prof Rachael Bitecofer election forecaster calls it a near lock for Biden

Following the 2018 midterm election Professor Bitecofer who called the blue wave house race correctly, right down to how many seats and which ones, quickly earned her the title “election whisperer.”

In this lengthy article she digs deep into how trump won in 16 and why, the myth of the swing voter and shows us the bigger picture behind all the confusing polls and statistics

If you would like to fully understand the 16 race and see why she feels so confident about our chances in 2020 take a look.

~snip~

today her model tells her the Democrats are a near lock for the presidency in 2020, and are likely to gain House seats and have a decent shot at retaking the Senate. If she’s right, we are now in a post-economy, post-incumbency, post record-while-in-office era of politics. Her analysis, as Bitecofer puts it with characteristic immodesty, amounts to nothing less than “flipping giant paradigms of electoral theory upside down.”

Bitecofer has already released her 2020 model, and is alone among election forecasters in giving the Democrats—the 270 electoral votes required to claim the presidency without a single toss-up state flipping their way.

Actually the article is incorrect in saying she is alone among election forecasters with this prediction. Moody Analytics which has called every election correctly, less 16 says it’s a win for Biden. They see it much the same as Professor Bitecofer as far as the numbers and where the election will be won, right down to the counties.

If you want to skip to the meat of the numbers in the Moody Analytics white paper, see page 8 titled what will happen in 2020..see link below

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944

Here’s her breakdown of the EC

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/forecast-comparison

https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/us-presidential-election-update

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Reply Prof Rachael Bitecofer election forecaster calls it a near lock for Biden (Original post)
Thekaspervote Sep 2020 OP
Hoyt Sep 2020 #1
Jeebo Sep 2020 #2
Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #3
lastlib Sep 2020 #4
msongs Sep 2020 #5
Thekaspervote Sep 2020 #6
CousinIT Sep 2020 #7
Farmergene Sep 2020 #8

Response to Thekaspervote (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 09:52 PM

1. Agree it SHOULD be a lock. But until votes are counted and there is a big Biden

margin, I ain’t saying it is “a lock.”

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Response to Thekaspervote (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 09:53 PM

2. Is she the same one who's been interviewed by Rachel Maddow...

...a few times?

-- Ron

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Response to Jeebo (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 10:19 PM

3. Yes

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Response to Jeebo (Reply #2)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 10:21 PM

4. Lawrence has also had her on. n/t

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Response to Thekaspervote (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 10:25 PM

5. politico article is from FEBRUARY nt

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Response to msongs (Reply #5)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 10:40 PM

6. Yes it is. She still stands by her forecast! Look at the other links to her current EC count

If you read the article it’s not about current polling. Far from it! It’s about why Dems lost in 16, won the house in 18 and her take on 2020

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Response to Thekaspervote (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2020, 11:47 PM

7. Alan Lichtman, who predicted Trump's 2016 win, also predicts a 2020 Biden win...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/allan-lichtman-presidential-election-accurate-prediction-trump-biden/

The professor famous for accurately predicting the winner of every presidential election since 1984 has issued his verdict for 2020: Joe Biden will defeat President Trump.

American University Professor Allan Lichtman uses a system he created of 13 "keys" that decide who will win the White House. In 2016, Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who said Mr. Trump would be the next president — and he also predicted that Trump would be impeached. Four years after those calls, he foresees a Biden victory in November.

"The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House," Lichtman says in a New York Times video op-ed released Wednesday.

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Response to Thekaspervote (Original post)

Wed Sep 9, 2020, 12:52 AM

8. I don't want to hear this

Even though it may be good news, I don't think its good for election turnout. Many people may just think "oh Joe is gonna win, i think i will just stay home and watch the fireworks"

The one sure way to hand that ass another term is thru poor turnout. Nothing is certain until the electoral college turns it into a done deal. And even at that, there may be legal challenges, etc...

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