BTRTN Presidential Snapshot: A Rash of New Polls - Is the Race Tightening?

[reggieandlee]

Born To Run The Numbers with its latest, up-to-the-minute snapshot of the Presidential election. Despite the assertions in some recent headlines, BTRTN sees no evidence that the race is tightening: Biden is still in control.

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2020/09/btrtn-presidential-snapshot-rash-of-new.html

Excerpts: "There have been an absolute deluge of national and swing state polls in September, and they tell the same tale: Joe Biden is firmly in control. The race has not tightened one bit; if anything, it has moved marginally in Biden’s direction..."
"...almost all of the latest news has been favorable to Biden. First there was the Atlantic article, in which Trump was quoted calling World War I soldiers buried outside of Paris 'losers.' While the White House was still issuing furious denials, Trump then dissed his own generals for pushing for wars to line the pockets of defense contractors. Then came twin disclosures that Biden had shattered fundraising records by raising $365 million in the month (dwarfing Trump’s $210 million) and that the Trump campaign was, in fact, cash poor at the head of the stretch drive. This was followed by the initial tidbits of Bob Woodward’s new book, “Rage," in which he interviewed Trump 19 times -- on tape! The tapes revealed exactly how badly Trump had misled the public about COVID-19 back in February; we now know exactly 'what the President knew' and 'when he knew it.' Neither those revelations, nor holding indoor rallies with no masks or distancing, is going to help Trump on the largest issue of the campaign: his handling of COVID-19. Biden is already winning on this issue handily, and only 40% of Americans approve of Trump's COVID response, while 56% disapprove..."
"Based on the latest polls (and other factors, including judgment), our BTRTN models now show that Biden has a 81% chance of winning the presidency if the election were held all at once, today. This is slightly up from the 79% we calculated a week ago..."

[Miigwech]

1. trump had m. cohen run up his poll numbers with bots, it's in his book

I don't believe any polls that show trump anywhere close to or closing in on Joe Biden (except maybe the Cubans in Miami, Florida). trump will win ONLY by stealing it. Work like our world depends on it because it really does. They are trying to give their panicked covididiots some hope that all is not lost with BS message.