The Gray Revolt: Older Voters Are Abandoning Trump

[appalachiablue]

- The Gray Revolt. - Older voters were key to Donald Trump’s 2016 coalition. Now they’re abandoning him. By Nancy LeTourneau, Oct. 6, 2020, The Washington Monthly.

The big polling news over the weekend came from the NBC News/Wall Street Journal post-debate poll showing Joe Biden with a 14-point lead over Donald Trump. That’s up from an eight-point lead in their previous poll. Nate Silver noted that this poll is usually close to the national averages. It’s not likely to be an outlier.

What is even more significant than the topline number, however, is that Trump’s biggest decline came from seniors, where Biden leads by 27 points (62-35). While that is dramatic, other national and state polls have shown Biden with a sizable lead among seniors. That is a huge reversal from 2016 when Trump won with voters who were over 65 by seven points.

Seniors are, of course, among the most formidable forces in American politics because they vote. Four years ago, 71 percent of voters over 65 cast a ballot—compared to 46 percent in the 18-29 age group. About 17 percent of America’s adults are seniors, but they make up 25 percent of this country’s registered voters, giving them an outsized role in any election. In addition, this is a voting bloc that could swing the election in several battleground states, particularly Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania.

According to conventional wisdom, the reason for Trump’s declining support among seniors is his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic. The president ignored the issue initially, while some of his Republican colleagues suggested that older Americans, who are more likely to die if they contract COVID-19, can be sacrificed in order to jump-start the economy. In July and August 2020, 11 nursing home residents died every hour nationally, according to a recent congressional report co-authored by Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa)...

More, https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/10/06/the-gray-revolt/

[Blue Owl]

1. Stick a fork in Donny -- he's done

[appalachiablue]

2. Yay!

[spooky3]

3. Itt's an important article but there is an arithmetic error:

People over 65 are about 21% of the adult population (16.5% of the entire population) of around 328 million. The "about 17 percent" was based on the entire population, including 22% under age 18, though the text said "adults." If you remove the 73 million children under 18 number from the entire population number, because they can't vote, then seniors are about 21%, not "about 17%" of adults. They are still over-represented as registered voters if they are truly 25% of them (21 vs. 25), but it is not as stark of a difference as the author suggests.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/AGE295219

Regardless, if the polls are correct, there has been a HUGE swing in seniors' views since 2016. I don't think it is only COVID, though that's important. I think more of them are wising up to the real threat Republicans pose to their incomes - Social Security, wild market swings, jobs - and Medicare and supplemental insurance.

[appalachiablue]

5. I also think it's SS, others factors; tx for the revised stats

[No Vested Interest]

4. ... And they VOTE!!!!

[lagomorph777]

6. Trump is going to give you COVID, take away your health care and your Social Security.

What have you got to lose?

What COVID-addled brain thinks up these disastrous campaign ideas? Miller?

[BlueWavePsych]

7. NYT - The Gray Revolt Against Trump

There are only two age groups that continue to support Trump, according to Times polls conducted over the past month. The first is a narrow slice of people older than baby boomers, typically in their late 70s, who have long been conservative. The second is a group of middle-aged people who include the youngest boomers and the oldest members of Generation X:

The middle-aged group is less vulnerable to the disease than people over 65 (although they’re still vulnerable). The group is also more conservative than people under 40. Its members came of age during Jimmy Carter’s unsuccessful presidency, Ronald Reagan’s two terms in office and the U.S. triumph in the Cold War. My colleague (and fellow Generation Xer) Ross Douthat goes into more depth on conservative Xers here.

But winning only a couple of slices of the country’s age spectrum isn’t enough to win a presidential election. The CNN and NBC polls both showed Trump trailing by double digits nationwide. New polls yesterday showed him losing in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Trump keeps telling people that the virus is not as bad as they’ve heard. Older Americans aren’t buying it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/briefing/nobel-prize-chemistry-eddie-van-halen-hurricane-delta.html

[appalachiablue]

8. TY, interesting article and graph.

[BlueWavePsych]

9. Being made sacrificial lambs really hit home after Drumpf caught Covid-19.

The president ignored the issue initially, while some of his Republican colleagues suggested that older Americans, who are more likely to die if they contract COVID-19, can be sacrificed in order to jump-start the economy.

[appalachiablue]

12. Reap what you sew. Time for the Gray Panthers #10.

[myccrider]

10. We need...

the Gray Panthers 2.0.

[appalachiablue]

11. +1 Luv it!

[myccrider]

13. I remember them being around some demonstrations back in the day.

Being young and heedless I didn’t appreciate them as much as I should have. Most of us couldn’t/can’t imagine being an old fogey when we’re 25.