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Thu Oct 15, 2020, 08:53 AM

BTRTN 2020 Election Snapshot: The "Short Answer" on Whether the Democrats Will Flip the Senate

Born To Run The Numbers has a lot of readers asking a simple question: can the Democrats flip the Senate? And the short answer is "yes." Here's the up-to-the minute analysis:


Excerpts: "We’ve been getting a number of questions from friends, family and readers of late and they all boil down to the same thing: what’s the short answer on whether the Democrats will flip the Senate? Here it is: they sure can and likely will. Our BTRTN models have the odds at 74% (as of now, a 'snapshot,' not a 'prediction') that the Democrats will gain control of the Senate. These odds keep rising with each new set of polls...

"The Democrats start with the 35 seats they occupy that are not up for reelection. Then, of the 12 Democratic seats that are on the ballot, 10 of them look to be sure winners. Of the other two, one – Michigan – is leaning blue. A Michigan win gets the Democrats to 46 seats. The challenge for the Dems is thus to flip four GOP seats to get to 50. The GOP has 30 seats that are not up for election; of the 23 that are, 11 are sure winners for the Republicans. That leaves 12 GOP seats 'in play' for the Democrats to find those four flips...

"And as of this snapshot, the path to those four seats is clear..."

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Reply BTRTN 2020 Election Snapshot: The "Short Answer" on Whether the Democrats Will Flip the Senate (Original post)
reggieandlee Oct 15 OP
lagomorph777 Oct 15 #1

Response to reggieandlee (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 09:02 AM

1. Very encouraging.

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