HomeLatest ThreadsGreatest ThreadsForums & GroupsMy SubscriptionsMy Posts
DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » Editorials & Other Articles (Forum) » Biden Is Not Out of the W...

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:38 PM

Biden Is Not Out of the Woods: Unanticipated electoral developments...

Biden Is Not Out of the Woods
Unanticipated electoral developments are affecting both presidential campaigns in surprising ways.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opinion/biden-trump-presidential-election.html#click=https://t.co/oXHoiPQyDA

One way to measure voter enthusiasm is to compare voter registration trends for each party. A Democratic strategist who closely follows the data on a day-to-day basis wrote in a privately circulated newsletter:

Since last week, the share of white non-college over 30 registrations in the battleground states has increased by 10 points compared to September 2016, and the Democratic margin dropped 10 points to just 6 points. And there are serious signs of political engagement by white non-college voters who had not cast ballots in previous elections.

David Wasserman, House editor for The Cook Political Report. wrote on Oct. 1 that voter registration patterns over a longer period in key battleground states show that “Republicans have swamped Democrats in adding new voters to the rolls, a dramatic GOP improvement over 2016.”

Four of the six states Trump won by fewer than five points in 2016 allow voters to register by party: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In recent months, there have been substantially more Republicans added to the rolls than Democrats in each of them except for Arizona.

More at link.

22 replies, 1987 views

Reply to this thread

Back to top Alert abuse

Always highlight: 10 newest replies | Replies posted after I mark a forum
Replies to this discussion thread
Arrow 22 replies Author Time Post
Reply Biden Is Not Out of the Woods: Unanticipated electoral developments... (Original post)
BigmanPigman Oct 15 OP
The Velveteen Ocelot Oct 15 #1
SWBTATTReg Oct 15 #2
lagomorph777 Oct 16 #15
Nictuku Oct 15 #3
BigmanPigman Oct 15 #5
idziak4ever1234 Oct 15 #6
underpants Oct 15 #8
Blue_playwright Oct 15 #12
NedRyersonIII Oct 17 #17
NedRyersonIII Oct 17 #18
marble falls Oct 18 #22
NRaleighLiberal Oct 15 #4
Iliyah Oct 15 #7
beachbumbob Oct 15 #9
DLCWIdem Oct 15 #10
marie999 Oct 17 #16
2naSalit Oct 15 #11
DLCWIdem Oct 16 #13
DLCWIdem Oct 16 #14
Eliot Rosewater Oct 17 #19
BigmanPigman Oct 17 #20
Eliot Rosewater Oct 17 #21

Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:39 PM

1. NYT just has to keep the horse-race narrative going.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:41 PM

2. These doom and gloom based on voter registrations are ridiculous...this is the 3rd article I...

have just saw...enough! Don't really know how they are going to vote anyways so is not really an accurate gauge of upcoming voting patterns...imho.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to SWBTATTReg (Reply #2)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 08:54 AM

15. Multiple re-posts of the same article.

It's getting old. Pukes are struggling to catch up to the massive increase in Dem registrations since 2016. It won't save them. There are only so many MAGAts under the outhouse.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:45 PM

3. In California you can select 'decline to state' your party

And I know a lot of people register as independents.

I am just wondering if they are only counting registrations in the last few weeks, or overall registrations, and then what of the independents or decline to state folks?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Nictuku (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:49 PM

5. Good point!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Nictuku (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:49 PM

6. I don't know, but I woke up this morning feeling pretty good...

and all day today it has been nothing but dire warnings.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to idziak4ever1234 (Reply #6)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:58 PM

8. I think it's a GOTV thing

Turnout is everything and 4 years ago the press told everyone it was over and we had the worst turnout ever.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Nictuku (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 07:07 PM

12. In Kansas...

Tons of Dems register as Republican so they can vote in the primary. The thought is to vote for the person most likely to be defeated and skew the primaries.

I am positive we aren’t the only red state with folks who do this.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Blue_playwright (Reply #12)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 04:22 PM

17. Good idea

 

Keep them off guard. Screw with the polls.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NedRyersonIII (Reply #17)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 04:35 PM

18. PS

 

Did anyone ever figure out what happened with the exit polls that were so weird for Bush-Kerry? I mean prove beyond a reasonable doubt by valid statisticians. Back then why the hell didn't the primary group of statisticians in America, all of them, figure this out? That's really what should be done. Don't leave anything to one person trying to prove their own theory. Get good real data.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to NedRyersonIII (Reply #17)

Sun Oct 18, 2020, 12:31 AM

22. Whats wrong with playing it straight? Why do we have to bocome them?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:48 PM

4. aarrrrggggghhhhhhh!

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 05:56 PM

7. White non-college over 30 are already registrated . ..

republicans love to not tell the actual truths . .

Keep eye on the prize.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:02 PM

9. This nonsense is really tiring

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:05 PM

10. Aren't most of the registration dates up already

I thought we were racing to get people registerred in time? So how could this be new news. Just read the article and at the very end it notes these registrations were from March on. They are not recent registrations. Since most polls are polling registerred or likely voters wouldn't these new registrations already be factored into the polling data?

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to DLCWIdem (Reply #10)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 12:34 PM

16. In North Carolina you can register to vote when you go to vote in early voting only.

You can not register to vote on November 3rd.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Thu Oct 15, 2020, 06:11 PM

11. I know some people who register as r and then vote for Dems

Just because. Wonder if anyone still does that.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to 2naSalit (Reply #11)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 01:04 AM

13. Check out the article

First of all the when you read down to the end of the article you find it is talikng about new registrations from earlier in the year from March on. Read it very carefully.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Fri Oct 16, 2020, 01:29 AM

14. There was something in another thread

Which told of the GOP paying canvasers to register people and they were paid by the number of GOP registrations.

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Original post)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 07:46 PM

19. I have an idea, just pretend that if you dont vote a known rapist liar thief will be elected

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to Eliot Rosewater (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 07:54 PM

20. His fans/cult considers those as added bonus features.

The more he stinks of rot, the more they love him.

This article is excellent and makes 100% sense, well worth the read. It was posted on DU before....
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/finding-positivity/202009/john-deans-authoritarian-nightmare

"...the psychological make-up of President Trump's base. Among their conclusions:

President Trump is an authoritarian leader.
Authoritarianism is deeply embedded in America today.

Trump's base is compromised of personality types that include social dominators, authoritarian followers, as well as "double highs" who combine the worst traits of the two.

Prejudice is the glue that holds this coalition together.

Religious beliefs are not really that important to those who identify as religious fundamentalist or evangelical; not compared with the power that fear and prejudice have over them."

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink


Response to BigmanPigman (Reply #20)

Sat Oct 17, 2020, 08:34 PM

21. That and they are all bigoted and racist

Reply to this post

Back to top Alert abuse Link here Permalink

Reply to this thread