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Thu Oct 29, 2020, 12:33 PM

BTRTN 2020 Election Snapshot: No Loss of Momentum As Yet For Biden and Dems Down the Stretch

Born To Run the Numbers provides its final "snapshot" of the national races before it makes its actual predictions on Monday at 5:00:


Excerpts: "Not much has changed, and that is news in and of itself. Hillary Clinton was showing signs of fading at this point in 2016, but Joe Biden has not. A few Senate races are tightening up but the odds still favor a Democratic takeover. The Dems will almost surely pick up seats in the House, leaving the GOP with the sole consolation of likely flipping one governor seat...
"Trump’s odds of winning remain at 1 in 8. He has to win all the toss-up states – and Biden nominally leads in most of them. And then Trump needs to pick-off at least one state in which he has trailed the entire campaign by a solid margin. For that is focused on Biden’s native state, Pennsylvania, to be that state. Biden’s lead in Michigan has swelled to near double digits, and Trump appears to have given up on Wisconsin. We have moved those latter two races from Lean Biden to Likely Biden. But we now consider Arizona, where the race is tightening, to be a Biden Toss Up (it had been a Biden Lean)...
"The Senate: The Democrats maintain solid leads in target flip races in Arizona, Colorado and Maine. But they need to flip one more seat to overcome the presumed loss of Alabama and get to the required 50 seats for control, assuming a Biden win. Their leads in Iowa and North Carolina have narrowed, but between those two and all the other toss-up races, they still appear likely to take control of the Senate. The dynamics down the stretch – all that Dem donor money, all those calling and texting volunteers, all those cases of COVID-19 – seem to favor last-minute 'persuadables' tilting blue down the stretch...
"The House. The “generic ballot” continues to show the Dems with a +9 point lead over the GOP, which should translate to a pick-up of roughly 20 seats, enabling the Democrats to further tighten their grip in the House with a huge majority of well over 60 seats..."

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