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Fri Nov 27, 2020, 09:42 AM

When will the American Empire collapse?

https://medium.com/mightmonk2019/when-will-the-american-empire-collapse-b2549dc1c040



Every so often I come across an interesting piece on the cyclical nature of empires. How often they disappear. How frequently they show the same signs before falling. It’s all very fascinating. One naturally looks to the current political situation and finds parallels. You start to imagine that the American empire will collapse some day as well. But there’s a problem, I often find myself wondering…When? WHEN will the U.S. empire slip into the pages of history? In this article, I’m going to total up various estimates and theories on when the empire will collapse to come up with a “best guess” date.

List of Estimates and Empire Collapse Theories:

Sir John Glubb, The Fate of Empires — In this work, Glubb estimates that empires last about 250 years (10 generations). If we use 1776 for the start date of the United States empires, that would be 2026 as an estimated fall date. (Celerity's own add - I place the beginning at 1789 when the Constitution was adopted, so 250 years is 2039)



J. D. Unwin, Sex and Culture— Here, Unwin estimates that it takes about 75 years — 3 generations — after unrestricted sexual access for a culture to collapse or be conquered. If we use 1970 as the start of “free love”, that puts us in 2045.

Currency Dominance — The dominate currency of the world goes through various transitions — on average the baton passed about every century for the last 600 years. This would spell trouble for the US Dollar in the next ~30 years. If we use the Bretton woods agreement as a start date, that would put collapse around 2050.



Peter Turchin, Secular Cycles and Cliodynamics — puts the millennial generation as the upheaval generation, with major events taking place from 2010–2050.



snip

much more at the top link

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 09:52 AM

1. Turchin is interesting, with his creation of mathematical...

... models to try to answer how civilizations fail. He developed that approach after reading something like 200 different explanations for how Rome failed from various historians.

If I remember correctly, his model showed that wealth inequality was one of the main predecessors of civilizations that collapsed internally, as opposed to externally from military conquest and the like.

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 10:18 AM

2. I think it's happening now.

The only way to reverse it is to reign in the ability of people on social media to pass around false information. A country cannot exist when a large portion of the populace cannot discern what is fact and what is false.

Huge chunks of people in our country also don't care about our government and how it operates. Either that or they're ignorant to it. We're more concerned about who the masked singer is than who the senate majority leader is. I recently heard that only 8 states require a civics course in order to graduate high school. It shows.

I fully expect to see the implosion of this country in my lifetime. Good thing I'll only have a few years left to suffer under it.

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Response to rownesheck (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 11:07 AM

3. Over 40 states require a course

but only 10 are for a year.

https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/education-k-12/reports/2018/02/21/446857/state-civics-education/


The problem is a 17 year is usually difficult to reach for concepts like Civics. A single course is also not sufficient as well. Also, whose Civics? Some of the most radical right wingers carry a copy of the Constitution in their pockets.

For example the Hoover Institute (the place where the nutcase Covid advisor Scott Atlas is from) is also a strong advocate of Civics education.

https://www.hoover.org/research/commonsense-solutions-our-civics-crisis-0

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Response to exboyfil (Reply #3)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 05:52 PM

7. In the 1960's my junior high school

had a year long civics course for 9th grade. In senior high, we had a one year course, in more depth, for 12th grade. American history in 8th and 11th grades. World history in 7th and 10th grades.

The failure of schools to teach young people about their own system of government surely contributes to the decline of the government.

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Response to wnylib (Reply #7)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 06:37 PM

8. I didn't have a Civics course

until 12st grade (actually took it the summer before 12th grade). I graduated HS in 1981. They do have two bites at the Civics apple in the district my daughter went to school (8th grade and 12th grade). Unfortunately the course is usually taught by the sports coaches. I actually had my daughters take a college equivalent from community college and transfer the credits back (allowing them to double up the credits).



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Response to exboyfil (Reply #8)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 06:47 PM

9. Taught by sports coaches? Oh my.

I live in NY state now, but my home state where I went to school was PA. Those courses were part of the state curriculum then. Don't know what they are doing now, but our courses were taught by social studies faculty who also taught history.

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Response to rownesheck (Reply #2)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 11:11 AM

4. Biggest factors for me (no real order) wealth inequality, climate crisis, obliteration of truth

(with the technology now to re-enforce it, ie social media) and the long wave constitutional gaming of the nation by the Rethugs ie. minority dominance via federal, state and local electoral wins gained via systemic voter suppression and gerrymandering etc., the manipulation of the US Census, state governorships and statewide offices, state asemblies, the Electoral College, the Senate itself (soon 70% of the seats controlled by only 30% of the populace, a 30% far whiter, older, more reactionary, fundie, less educated, poorer, and far more racist that the other 70%), and now the state and federal judiciary systems up to and including the SCOTUS. Finally the insane levels of amortised (including future mandated transfer payments) debt at all levels that demand the US dollar be maintained as the global reserve currency via the global petroldollar matrix, which in terms demand global military empiric involvement, all so that the debts can be further increased.

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 12:47 PM

5. I agree that cyclical patterns are very interesting. The solar sun spot cycle for one turned out

Last edited Fri Nov 27, 2020, 09:59 PM - Edit history (1)

to be significant. But I consider such patterns meaningless in this case. Too many variables, too many differences in context, along with change that proceeds at an exponentially greater pace in the modern world than ever before. The last might suggest that the "American Empire" should already have fallen. I assume the best indiction the the AE has fallen woud be the successful secession of a state or states from the Union. I don't see any clear trend that this is even possible at this point in time. But if the GOP insists on engaging in a salt the earth strategy to avoid changing their feudalistic policies to adapt to the majority of Americans, and their dominance of the Supreme Court allows them to destroy our system of checks and balances, it is a possibility the next time Republicans control Congress and the presidency.

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 05:47 PM

6. The top picture in this post is one of Thomas Cole's paintings.

He did a series of five paintings called “The Course of Empire.” The picture at the top of the post is called “Destruction.”

See

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Course_of_Empire_(paintings)

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Response to Celerity (Original post)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 08:27 PM

10. I would not consider the United States as an empire.

I would not consider the United States to be a representative democracy or representative republic until 1920 when women were given the vote or maybe 1965 when The Voting Rights Act was passed. And we still have problems like voter suppression in some states.

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Response to marie999 (Reply #10)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 09:06 PM

11. profoundly disagree, it fits the definition of an empire at a multiplicity of levels

Militarily (over 1000 military bases and endless military interventions) It spends more on the war/security/surveillance state than the rst of the world combined. Just on 'defence' it spends more than the next 10 countries combined, and more than the lower 144. Post WWII it has went on or aided in multiple murderous wars, actions, and coups d'état. It has the most powerful military in human history and uses it (and its clandestine forces such as the CIA) often, and certainly not for the good in multiple cases.

Financially (largest economy and the US dollar is world's reserve currency, and kept there via the military-maintained petrodollar matrix)

Culturally (biggest cultural exporter in the world, and has helped to make English (before that it was the British empire obviously that expanded it) the dominant international language, especially of business.

yes

it is most definitely an empire

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Response to Celerity (Reply #11)

Fri Nov 27, 2020, 10:05 PM

12. I agree. We are as much an empire as Great Britain's was, and the sun never sets on every

one of America's military bases. Where I would disagree is that the vast majority of those bases are established on the basis that any country can kick them out whenever they want to. All of those countries have neighbors they are afraid of. The map of NATO and US bases in Europe that Russian propagandists kept posting on DU during the 2016 election to demonstrate how the US had encircled Russia with hostile forces was a perfect example. When Russia invaded and then annexed Crimea from Ukraine, Poland and every other democratic neighbor of Russia was eager to strengthen their ties with NATO and the US.

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Response to Celerity (Reply #11)

Sat Nov 28, 2020, 07:31 AM

13. Militarily, most of our military overseas are in countries that are our allies.

Our troops in Europe are there to help defend them, not subjugate them. The way we treat countries in which we have military forces is far different than the way England treated India and countries in Africa. Empires are built on conquest, not on mutual defense.

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Response to marie999 (Reply #13)

Sat Nov 28, 2020, 12:05 PM

14. The US has kicked off so many coups and wars/invasions post WWII

So much blood on its hands across the globe.

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Response to Celerity (Reply #14)

Sat Nov 28, 2020, 01:14 PM

15. I agree with you.

I guess I have a more specific meaning of an empire than most people including historians. When I think of empires I think more along the lines of taking over countries to add to their empires. Say more of a physical presence to subjugate the people.

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Response to marie999 (Reply #15)

Sat Nov 28, 2020, 02:57 PM

16. many empires ruled via proxy governments as well, governments they helped install

The Romans were aces at that.

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