BTRTN: The Seventeen GOP Senators Who Could Convict Trump
Born To Run The Numbers counts the votes... are there 17 Republicans who would vote with the Democrats to make the Donald Trump the first president to be impeached and convicted?
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2021/01/btrtn-seventeen-gop-senators-who-could.html
Excerpts: "With all the epic tragedy, drama, fear, despair and promise colliding at once in Washington, DC these days, there is some good old-fashioned nose counting underway. And it is a doozie of a count: which Republican Senators might vote to convict ex-President Donald Trump at the climax of the upcoming Senate impeachment trial?
"The Senate is far more likely to convict Trump this time around for any number of reasons. After all, the Senators were, along with their House colleagues, the target of the insurrection and felt the violence and the threat firsthand. And a conviction carries the sweet carrot of offering a means of keeping Trump from ever holding office again (via a separate vote that would follow a conviction). A few GOP Senators view this as a moral imperative, others seek to rid the GOP of Trump forever and move on, and still others want to remove Trump as a formidable direct competitor for the 2024 GOP nomination...
"We see the GOP Senators falling into three groups: 1) the few almost certain to convict, 2) the ones who are open to conviction but are almost surely watching what Mitch McConnell decides, and 3) the vast majority who are either on the record as opposing impeachment or almost certainly are in that group.
"As it happens, the first two groups add up to exactly 17. That does not leave much margin for error, but never forget that McConnell knows how to count votes, and there is little chance he is going to be on the losing side..."
