World population may actually start declining, not exploding.

[bananas]

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2013/01/world_population_may_actually_start_declining_not_exploding.single.html

About That Overpopulation Problem
Research suggests we may actually face a declining world population in the coming years.

By Jeff Wise|Posted Wednesday, Jan. 9, 2013, at 7:45 AM ET

<snip>

A somewhat more arcane milestone, meanwhile, generated no media coverage at all: It took humankind 13 years to add its 7 billionth. That’s longer than the 12 years it took to add the 6 billionth—the first time in human history that interval had grown. (The 2 billionth, 3 billionth, 4 billionth, and 5 billionth took 123, 33, 14, and 13 years, respectively.) In other words, the rate of global population growth has slowed. And it’s expected to keep slowing. Indeed, according to experts’ best estimates, the total population of Earth will stop growing within the lifespan of people alive today.

And then it will fall.

<snip>

American media have largely ignored the issue of population decline for the simple reason that it hasn’t happened here yet. Unlike Europe, the United States has long been the beneficiary of robust immigration. This has helped us not only by directly bolstering the number of people calling the United States home but also by propping up the birthrate, since immigrant women tend to produce far more children than the native-born do.

But both those advantages look to diminish in years to come. A report issued last month by the Pew Research Center found that immigrant births fell from 102 per 1,000 women in 2007 to 87.8 per 1,000 in 2012. That helped bring the overall U.S. birthrate to a mere 64 per 1,000 women—not enough to sustain our current population.

<snip>

[Buzz Clik]

1. China's one child policy has something to do with it, and they are relaxing the policy.

The curve will go up again.

[Shivering Jemmy]

2. What percent of the variation does China's policy explain?

[Buzz Clik]

4. That's discussed in the article.

They are projecting that, if the one child policy is not relaxed (and it is being relaxed), China's population would drop in half by the end of the century. However, with their aging population, they will lose critical work force and will be unable to drive the economy at its current rate.

[kestrel91316]

3. Oh, it WILL happen - but it won't be voluntary. It will be due to famine and

natural catastrophes caused by global warming.

[AverageJoe90]

8. Well....that's a bit questionable, to be honest. What level of collapse are you suggesting?

I mean, many parts of the world are already in famine, and frankly, I'm surprised that a population collapse hasn't already occurred in many parts of Africa and India, where it's been at it's worst. Not to mention that natural disasters don't kill all that many people in relation to the total world population anyway: for example, only 80 people are killed by tornadoes on average here in America. That's literally more than a-million-to-one, odds wise.

As a reality-based prediction, even with climate change taken into account, much of the eventual fallback will likely be due to voluntary factors(however, though, the ratio may vary from country to country).

[physioex]

5. I will read the article later....

But I we are going to talk about this we should be talking about the Lewis Point and its implications.

[Kber]

7. I'll bite: what is the Lewis Point?

[physioex]

9. So I am going to type in the response without looking it up on Wiki (my own words)....

Basically it has to do with the development of a country from an agrarian society to an industrialized society and the economic process. As an agrarian society, you are able to take labor from agriculture and move them over to an industrial based. This process is accomplished by taking advantage of the cheap labor, in theory industrial jobs are higher paid. Unfortunately, this process cannot go on forever. At some point the country will have exhausted its supply of cheap labor, and then the fun begins. The next generation of workers will become more educated and less docile. As a result, wages will rise, workers will demand more benefits, or possibly form unions. Please read up and feel free to add to the discussion.

[dhol82]

6. well, yeah, but

when you educate women the birthrate goes down. nice.

educated women understand that raising two or three children will result in a benefit to the general population. just cranking out the kidlets is not necessarily a gain.