Obama expected to win

[cally]

according to this prediction model!!!

Predicting the Presidential Election: 2012 by James Zogby

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/james-zogby/predicting-the-presidenti_b_1191248.html

Instead of looking at polling numbers which show a snapshot of public opinion at a point in time, Lichtman analyzes macro trends in the economy and the society, viewing them as if they were tectonic plates whose shifting below the surface have the ability to create rumblings that can alter the political landscape. He identified 13 such indicators and calls them the "13 Keys to the Presidency."

According to Lichtman, if the incumbent party (that is, the political party that is currently in the White House) can claim eight of the "13 Keys," then they can be assured of victory in the next election. If, on the other hand, they hold seven or less, they are headed for defeat.

...

At the end of December 2011, I hosted Lichtman on my TV show, Viewpoint, where he issued his "one year before the election" prediction. According to Lichtman, the only three "Keys" which President Obama has definitely lost, to date, are #1, #6 and #12. Democrats clearly suffered significant losses in the 2010 mid-term elections (Key #1); the economy will not recover sufficiently to mark an increase in per capita income (Key #6); and while Obama was a charismatic figure in 2008, his aura has diminished and will not be a major factor in his favor in 2012 (Key #12). That makes three "Keys" gone. In addition, there are a few that are questionable, namely: Key #10 and Key #11 -- since it is not clear that killing bin Laden or the withdrawal from Iraq will be seen as "victories," or, conversely, that instability in Iraq and Afghanistan or a dreaded future terrorist attack will constitute a "foreign policy failure."

Nevertheless, this still leaves a maximum of 10 "Keys" and a minimum of eight "Keys" in the president's favor, enough for Lichtman, who has never been wrong, to confidently predict Obama's reelection in November.

[RandySF]

2. Zogby is quoting someone else.

It's not based on his own work.

[joshcryer]

11. Zogby is quoting Lichtman, who has never been wrong.

[SlimJimmy]

3. What about #5? The economy *is* currently in recession, and most likely will be at election time.

[cally]

4. The economy is not technically in a recession now

Technically, the recession ended and the economy is growing. (I'm referring to the actual definition, not the pain we are seeing in the economy.)

Here's a discussion:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-07/obama-re-election-odds-may-rise-as-unemployment-falls.html

[SlimJimmy]

8. If it feels like a recession, then the voters perceive it as such. Technicalities aside. (nt)

[JoePhilly]

9. Only if the media LIES to them.

[SlimJimmy]

10. Only if the price of food and gas has outpaced what they make. Only if they haven't been able to

find any kind of meaningful and living wage work in two years. And only if the vast majority of manufacturing jobs have been shipped outside of the country. If it *feels* like a recession, then it's quite real to the average American.

[JoePhilly]

14. If you've been out of work for 2 years ...

that means you lost your job during the Bush recession.

UE was 8.6% in March of 2009, on its way to 10.2%, and its now back to 8.5%.

My sister-in-law who was out of work for almost 2 years, just got a better job than she had before the "technical" recession.

A good friend just QUIT his old job to take a better job.

In Jan 2009, I thought I had a very real chance of being laid off ... no such feeling now.

The recovery is slow, and uneven, but it is happening.

And you can be sure that the GOP won't do anything to continue that, or to accelerate it.

[SlimJimmy]

15. Again, it's perception. Even though the numbers have been improving, they still have a long way to

go before I would feel comfortable saying President Obama is on a clear path to re-election. It's not that I don't feel more optimistic than I did even a few months ago. But I would still caution progressives to stay focused. Work on getting out the vote and spreading the message.

While a majority of voters still views the economy as deteriorating, perceptions have been improving since early August, when they reached a low in the aftermath of the standoff between the White House and Congress over raising the national debt limit, Newport said.

In the latest Gallup tracking poll conducted Jan 3-5, 36 percent of Americans said the economy is getting better versus 59 who said it is worsening. As recently as Dec. 1-3, 27 percent saw the economy improving versus 69 percent worsening. In a poll Aug. 7-9, 16 percent said the economy is getting better and 80 percent said it’s getting worse. [/div class]

[JoePhilly]

16. You gave your perception, I gave another ...

and yes, we need to stay focused.

Obama should win in a landslide. The media does not want that to happen.

Not only because they'd be happier with a GOP president, but because Obama winning in a landslide would be very boring ... there would be no conflict for the pundits to scream endlessly about.

[SlimJimmy]

17. A landslide? What do you base your prediction on? I can see the President winning

re-election, but I think it will be a lot closer than that - particularly if Romney is the GOP nominee because he seems to appeal to independents and undecideds. I don't mind the pro Obama threads at all, but I would caution everyone that this election is not in the bag by a long shot.

[JoePhilly]

18. I did not say it would be a lndslide ...

I said it SHOULD be a landslide.

Why?

Stopped us from entering a recession.
We were losing ~500,000 jobs a month when he took office, now gaining ~200,000 every month.
Reversed the UE trend ... now moving in the correct direction.
Saved the US auto industry.
Ended Iraq
Killed OBL.
The HCR bill.
Dodd-Frank.
Dow was at about 7500 on the day he took office, its now above 12k
Repeal of DADT.

And all against the highest level of obstruction ever.

It should be more than enough. But the media prefers to play a game in which thet spout 2 totally opposite 'Obama bad" memes ... and then those get repeated in the blogosphere.

The first is crafted to make the right wing angry. Its goal is to increase GOP turn out.
The second is crafted to make the left angry. Its goal is to decrease DEM turnout.

Swing the turn out by say 3% in each direction ... and Obama's 6% point win over McCain is gone.

And that's what's going on.

[SlimJimmy]

19. Fair enough.

I did not say it would be a landslide ...
I said it SHOULD be a landslide. [/div class]

[joshcryer]

12. 1/10th of 1% is all Obama has to reduce unemployment from now until Nov.

It'll be the same rate it was when Reagan got reelected.

[SlimJimmy]

13. The difference is the change that occured for Reagan. President Obama would have to reduce it from

about 9% to 6.4% to match that. I'm not sure the same dynamic exists for that to happen.

In November 1984, the unemployment rate stood at 7.2 percent, a 3.6 percent reduction from 1982, when it stood at a whopping 10.8 percent. When the unemployment decreases in the years and months prior to an election, the incumbent president generally wins reelection.

http://www.paxamerica.org/2011/08/05/the-unemployment-rate-and-the-president%E2%80%99s-reelection-an-historic-overview/
[/div class]

[AverageJoe90]

5. The only one I really disagree with now: #4.

[rgbecker]

6. Is the opponent one of the "Keys".

In this case a lying millionaire who wants to overturn Roe vs. Wade, Kill the dream act, end taxes on interest, dividends and capital gains, appoint more justices like Alito, admend the constitution to banned gay marriages, increase the military budget, end the affordable health care act, expand the death penalty, and fight the public employee unions.

Can't wait to read the whole article.

[proud patriot]

7. No complacency Either! let's kick ass !