GOP turning reality upside down, again: No, CBO did not say Obamacare will kill 2 million jobs

[Bill USA]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/02/04/no-cbo-did-not-say-obamacare-will-kill-2-million-jobs/

Here we go again. During the 2012 campaign, The Fact Checker had to repeatedly explain that the Congressional Budget Office never said that the Affordable Care Act “killed” 800,000 jobs by 2021. Now, the CBO has released an [link:Here we go again. During the 2012 campaign, The Fact Checker had to repeatedly explain that the Congressional Budget Office never said that the Affordable Care Act “killed” 800,000 jobs by 2021. Now, the CBO has released an updated estimate, nearly the triple the size of the earlier one: 2.3 million in 2021.|updated estimate], nearly the triple the size of the earlier one: 2.3 million in 2021.

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The CBO’s estimate is mostly the result of an analysis of the impact of the law on the supply of labor. That means how many people choose to participate in the work force. In other words, the nonpartisan agency is examining whether the law increases or decreases incentives for people to work.

One big issue: the health insurance subsidies in the law. That’s a substantial benefit that decreases as people earn more money, so at a certain point, a person has to choose between earning more money or continuing to get the maximum help with health insurance payments. In other words, people might work longer and harder, but actually earn no more, or earn even less, money. That is a disincentive to work. (The same thing happens when people qualify for food stamps or other social services.)

Thus, some people might decide to work part-time, not full time, in order to keep getting health-care subsidies. Thus, they are reducing their supply of labor to the market.
(more)

[underpants]

1. Yep, I knew there was more to this story this morning

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10024443718

NBC News - yes NBC - also has good analysis saying the same thing

[Bill USA]

2. M$M with analysis... that counters GOP talking point!.... who'd have guessed! Thanks!

[Bill USA]

3. Statement by the White House Press Secretary on Today’s CBO Report and the Affordable Care Act

http://www.enewspf.com/latest-news/health-care-reform/49880-statement-by-the-white-house-press-secretary-on-today-s-cbo-report-and-the-affordable-care-act.html

Since the Affordable Care Act passed into law in March 2010 the private sector has added 8.1 million jobs. That is the strongest 45 month job growth since the late 1990s and contrasts with the 3.8 million private sector jobs lost in the decade before the Affordable Care Act passed.

Claims that the Affordable Care Act hurts jobs are simply belied by the facts in the CBO report. CBO’s findings are not driven by an assumption that ACA will lead employers to eliminate jobs or reduce hours, in fact, the report itself says that there is “no compelling evidence that part-time employment has increased as a result of the ACA.”

While many factors affect job growth, the actual performance of businesses refutes those who predicted that the Affordable Care Act would dramatically hurt the economy.

What the CBO report does find is one key immediate effect of the Affordable Care Act is to “induce some employers to hire more workers or to increase the hours of current employees” during the 2014-16 period. Over the longer run, CBO finds that because of this law, individuals will be empowered to make choices about their own lives and livelihoods, like retiring on time rather than working into their elderly years or choosing to spend more time with their families. At the beginning of this year, we noted that as part of this new day in health care, Americans would no longer be trapped in a job just to provide coverage for their families, and would have the opportunity to pursue their dreams. This CBO report bears that out, and the Republican plan to repeal the ACA would strip those hard-working Americans of that opportunity.

In addition, the CBO itself confirms that this analysis of the implications of the ACA on the labor force is incomplete, does not take into account the impact that ACA’s slowing health care cost growth which experts have estimated that slower growth in health costs due to the ACA will cause the economy to add an additional 250,000 to 400,000 jobs per year by the end of the decade. Moreover, CBO does not take into account positive impacts on worker productivity due to the ACA’s role in improving workers’ health, including reduced absenteeism.

Finally, as it has since the enactment of the ACA, CBO continues to confirm that the ACA is projected to reduce the deficit by more than $1 trillion over the next two decades.

Source: whitehouse.gov

[Bill USA]

4. Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies estimated 1.5 mil jobs could be added to Healthcare

industry in the next decade due to changes due to Affordable Healthcare Act


http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/biz-beat/2014/jan/06/expect-health-care-providers-ramp-obamacare-hiring/

Last fall the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, in a forecast on minority hiring due to Obamacare, projected the health care industry overall could add a total of 4.6 million jobs over the next decade, a 31 percent increase from the current level. The group estimated a third of overall hiring could be the result of changes due to Obamacare.

CBO has never attempted to convert the expected increase in demand for health care services predicted due to ACA into jobs created.

[SunSeeker]

5. K & R