Ukraine's EU trade deal will be catastrophic
Kremlin claims neighbouring state faces financial ruin and possible collapse if integration agreement goes ahead
Shaun Walker in Yalta
The Guardian, Sunday 22 September 2013 09.23 EDT
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/22/ukraine-european-union-trade-russia
Ukraine's EU trade deal will be catastrophic, says Russia
Kremlin claims neighbouring state faces financial ruin and possible collapse if integration agreement goes ahead
The Kremlin has warned Ukraine that if the country goes ahead with a planned agreement on free trade with the EU, it faces inevitable financial catastrophe and possibly the collapse of the state.
snip
"For the first time in our history more than 50% of people support European integration, and less than 30% of the people support closer ties with Russia," said Poroshenko. "Thank you very much for that Mr Glazyev." [Glazyev represented Russia at the meeting]
snip
"We don't want to use any kind of blackmail. This is a question for the Ukrainian people," said Glazyev. "But legally, signing this agreement about association with EU, the Ukrainian government violates the treaty on strategic partnership and friendship with Russia." When this happened, he said, Russia could no longer guarantee Ukraine's status as a state and could possibly intervene if pro-Russian regions of the country appealed directly to Moscow.
snip
Assorted European leaders again told Yanukovych over the weekend that he must free Tymoshenko. There are also concerns in Brussels about human rights, rule of law and corruption among the political elite in Ukraine. Ironically, however, the Russian pressure has led many Europeans to put their quibbles on the backburner.
So, back in November, Russia threatened to disregard Ukraine's borders if Ukraine signed on with the EU. No wonder Yanukovich dumped the EU deal and turned to Moscow. Put was threatening to dismember Ukraine even back then.
And of course, Tymoshenko, with her money ties to the EU was freed, and is now in Germany, I think.
I wonder how many of the protesters and Ukrainian people in general knew about this.
It also explains why Putin's actions came so swiftly. He had obviously been planning them all along.
Also, today's NYT has an article that says that Putin consulted only with a couple of his old St. Petersburg (Leningrad) KGB cronies in deciding to invade Crimea and threaten eastern Ukraine. No foreign minister, no defense minister, no commerce minister.
I highly recommend reading the entire Guardian article.
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)Problem is that the opposition did little if anything to help them understand that what they face is a situation currently demonstrated by Greece.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)telling his Russian counterpart that for the first time 50% of the Ukrainian people favor EU integration.
If you read the entire article, you might get the impression that the change in opinion came about because of Russian bullying.
I don't think that the Urkainians are looking at Greece. I think that they are looking at former Soviet bloc countries like Poland, Hungary and the Balts. I read an article earlier this week, it would have been in the NYT, WaPo, BBC or Guardian, that said that there are many Ukrainians working in Poland, since many Poles have left to work in wealthier EU countries. They realize that Poland is not rich in absolute terms, but they see that it is functioning like a normal country. That's what they want--a normal country. Apparently, those Ukrainians who are not fed a constant diet of Russian state TV don't see Russia as offering that.
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)but reality says they are. It was later quantified that the projected cost Ukraine of the full transition would be c. $220 billion over a number of years. The fact that is less than Greece, currently 237 billion / $330 billion since the euro bailout began in 2010, is incidental.
It has already become clear that the $15 billion offered now by the EU will be subject to the original IMF rules which Ukraine chose to reject 2008 and 2010 namely - devalued currency , reduced government spending and removal of the subsidy whereby their consumers pay only about 10% of the cost of gas which the government buys it for. Reduced government spending would be partly in the form of substantially reduced state pensions. It goes without saying that loans would be secured against state assets that being the common rule now.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)The elections are on May 25, provided that a civil war is not ongoing at that time.
I'm sure that there will be candidates advocating closer ties to Russia, and that they will be campaigning strongly on the platform you suggest.
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)and I hope they are given sufficient information to make a wise choice concerning their future.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)You seem to be very committed.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)amandabeech
(9,893 posts)bemildred
(90,061 posts)I do it all the time.
pangaia
(24,324 posts)It sure wasn't because of that snowflake. Nosiree..
He was about to invade Ukraine....
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)Throwing political dissenters in Siberia or allowing Cossacks to whip them in Socchi or harassing the LBGT community shows that Russia is just not a modern nation.
Russia has oil and gas and the presence of those resources has led many to convince themselves that Russia is something that it obviously isn't, at least at this point in time.
I hope that these actions cause our political and business leaders to rethink their dealing with Russia, at least while Putin is still in charge.
pscot
(21,023 posts)The 21st century isn't going to change that. There is zero democratic tradition.
amandabeech
(9,893 posts)They went almost directly from an absolute monarchy to a Marxist totalitarian state, with only about a decade of turmoil, war and Mensheviks in between.
Clinton was so naive in the '90s to think that overnight Russia would become like Western Europef overnight. But then, there was a lot of money to be had by ripping off the Russians, and Clinton does like to hang around with money. I understand why Russians are angry about that, but it doesn't give them the right to ignore international agreements about boundaries. What a mess. I'm just glad that I don't live anywhere near Russia.